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Hero
coyote6 said:
I wonder if there will be enough non-converters to sustain a 3.0 d20 market of any appreciable size.
(Me, I'd be tempted to write a 3.5e book full of less nerfy spells.)
At a guess--and of course, I'm far more familiar with the creative side of the industry than the business one, so I could be wrong--I'd say probably not.
First off, you're dealing with a small portion of the market to begin with. In addition to the percentage of the market that's going to convert--and from everything I've seen, those who don't plan to convert are a minority--all new players from this point on will be playing 3.5. Further, once 3.0 becomes unavailable (or not easily available), and as more and more products are produced for 3.5 only, even many of those who didn't initially plan to convert will do so out of necessity or convenience.
Ultimately, products that remain focused entirely on 3.0 will represent not only a minority of the market, but an ever and always shrinking portion of it. It simply wouldn't be a profitable choice.
Now, a product that provides both sets of stats might be feasible. But the simple fact is, as many minor changes as there may be, a 3.5 NPC or creature is fully playable and balanced in 3.0 and vice-versa. It might not be identical to the 3.0 version, but it will be equally usable.