Sonofapreacherman said:
Hmmm ... rolling three 20's in a row or having two 2nd level hobgoblin fighters fail their Will save on an average Hit Dice roll for the spell sleep.
What can take we commonly take into account and what breaks the bell curve of normalcy.
Yeah, that's a tough one.

Ya' think? Shall we take a look at odds? It truly is less likely, BUT I'll bet the chances are closer than you think. Try to keep up with me if you can. I will use NPC info from the DMG for my example. Two hobgoblin Level 2 Fighters and a single human Level 1 Sorcerer. Remember that hobgoblins get +2 Dex, +2 Con, and +4 Move Silently to the stats in the DMG and the human gets an extra skill and an extra feat. Also keep in mind that for the purposes of this experiment, we'll be using my optional Toughness feat, something that works to the human's advantage as I give hp +5 instead of hp +3. The sorcerer will have, as per the book, Toughness and Combat Casting.
First off, Initiative. Sorcerer +2, Hobgoblins +6. First thing that has to happen is the Sorcerer must win initiative. If the sorcerer does not win initiative, the odds are he or she will be dead before getting to do anything, or at least that's what is most likely. Anyway, the chances of the Sorcerer winning initiative are, since he must roll 5 higher than the hobgoblins, roughly 56%.
Now the Sorcerer casts Sleep. First off, the Sorcerer must be able to effect enough Hit Dice to hit both of them, so he needs a 4 on 2d4. The odds are at 71% here, so not bad. Odds stand at 39%. Next come the saving throws. The hobgoblins' Will saves are +1 against DC 13. The hobgoblins must roll 12 or higher, and generally speaking, they must both fail their saves else one will certainly wake up the other. The odds of that happening are 20%. So far the Sorcerer's odds are at 7%.
It's not over yet! Next up come the kill attempts. Assuming the Sorcerer moved in after casting Sleep, it is time for a Coup de Grace attempt. Contrary to popular belief, this does not necessarily result in a kill. The hobgoblins have 21 hp each. The Sorcerer has a shortspear, and the damage is 1d8-1/x3 crit. The average damage of the attack will be 10, certainly not enough to kill by itself. That does produce the need a DC 20 Fortitude saving throw, though, but the hobgoblins Fortitude saves are +6. The chances of the Coup de Grace making the kill are, since the hobgoblin must roll 13 or less, 65%. Then you have the same chances, 65%, killing the other hobgoblin in the subsequent round. The chances of killing both are 42%, and the overall odds are now sitting at 2%.
Okay, there you have it, a 2% chance of the Sorcerer winning the fight. Challenging enough for you?
Now compare that to the odds of rolling three 20s in a row. 0.01%.
As I said, the odds aren't too far apart. 2% to 0.01%. I think you would agree that either happening is incredibly unlikely.
I know what you're thinking. My own numbers show the former as 200 times more likely. I understand that. However, we're also talking about a difference between 10,800 XP and 46,080,000 XP, or 4267 times more! So for all you gamblers out there, tell me how you work this. 200 times worse odds for 4267 times the payoff. That's a 21 to 1 factor. A betting man would put money on the 0.01%.
Sonofapreacherman said:
:
There is nothing even remotely challenging/difficult/heroic (take your pick) about two 2nd level hobgoblins failing their Will saves.
Perspective is desperately needed here Anubis. Please grab some.
You can find perspective in my previous paragraph, man. An EL +10 encounter with a 0.02% chance of winning being worth 10,800 XP ain't too bad, and I believe it to be accurate.
My God I can't believe it, I'm actually defending UK's system now! Hell HAS frozen over! Wow, looks like you did it for the most part, UK, except for the damn ghouls and ghasts.