Following up on my "barriers to entry" note:
It seems to me that there are perhaps five real or perceived barriers to entry to current TRPGs like D&D:
1. Exposure. Let’s face it, if you don’t know about the game, you aren’t going to play it – or if you know about it but feel it doesn’t fit you, the same is true. This is in part up to the marketing of the game companies, but part of it is the game identity that Ryan is talking about shifting. To me it makes no sense that you can sell enough Harry Potter books – a solitary activity without interaction – to make Jo Rowling a billionaire, but can’t tap that same trend to take RPGs mainstream.
2. Cost. There is an initial cost, that isn’t necessarily apparent to the early user. It’s relatively small (~$30 for a PHB plus dice), but given the volume of publications, it isn’t obvious to the novice what is needed, and the sheer volume of stuff can be intimidating. The novice doesn’t know where to start, and the cost of evtry looks much higher than it really is.I suspect “Basic” sets only appeal to younger players, because adults want to start with the real thing!
3. Knowledge base. Let’s face it, there’s a lot to learn in the D&D PHB. It can be very intimidating to a rank novice to break open the PHB and try and figure out how to game. Those of us who have played a lot of D&D realize that learning a TRPG can actually be quite simple, if you’re guided by someone experienced … but if you’re not, not many people are just going to pick up the game and start playing (this board is populated by exceptions, myself included – but we’re the few fish than managed to jump the rocks waterfalls and swim upstream; most of the potential gaming population needs help getting out of the ocean).
4. Social network. D&D needs friends, and structured time – which is probably why it primarily gets people to enter at a time & place when they’re more socially active but have barriers (cost, transportation) that facilitate getting people together for low-cost activity. [I’m typing this at the airport, after having listened to Ryan Dancey’s interview on the Fear the Boot podcast on the way to the airport, so this fact of the demographic is stuck in my mind.] This can be a barrier to experienced players, too. I’m a perfect example – as an adult with all the competing adult & family demands who relocates to a different part of the country every 2-3 years, I find it very difficult to locate a group to play with that fits my gaming preferences.
5. Stigma. This may have been reduced significantly over the past few years, but I do still wonder of D&D gamers aren’t still ltagged as socially inept hygienically-challenged geeks hiding in basements … despite the fact that frankly, to successfully play a socially-based cooperative experience game you actually need reasonable social skills. Just add a shower and get out of the basement now and then.
Those five barriers to entry explain to me a lot of why MMORPGs are expanding while the TRPG population stays flat. It’s easy to enter – buy one box of software (admittedly for a cost much greater than the entry cost of D&D, but there’s a big difference when the novice can pick up the one and only box that enables access to the complete game vice being confused about what all is needed to play among the hundreds of books and other products). The computer handles the rules; there’s a fast-play that gets you playing within a few minutes with no expertise required – you don’t need a friend who is an experienced DM to teach you the game. There’s a community readily available online, and no stigma since you’re doing it on you own time, privately.
Now, I’d argue that MMORPGs lack the freedom of expression and development of other cooperative experience games (though as the genre matures I think that is limited only by programmer skill). I also think that they promote a sort of inept social networking, but that’s admittedly skewed by my own experiences, which haven’t been positive (with the possible exception of time spent on EN World’s NWN persistent server, while it lasted.) But there’s probably some happy middle ground between MMOs and TRPGs that can be found – if the D&D barriers to entry can be reduced.
In a way it's a shame the organized play efforts have failed, because I think they'd address some of these items ... but then again since they have failed, perhaps they are a flawed model.