I think it's important not to underestimate the "overkill" question, and the all-important ACTION question.
Let's say you hit stuff and do average damage of 15 per round.
Let's say with power attack you are at -2 to hit and +5 damage or something like that, upping your average damage to 20 for the -2 to hit cost.
The only time that this really matters (compared to not using power attack or another - to hit + to damage power) is when the additional +5 damage actually leads to a monster dropping faster than it would otherwise.
If you at attacking a monster with 10 HP or less, it's always stupid to use power attack. Your normal average damage will kill it 90% of the time.
On the other hand, if the monster has 17 HP, it's likely a lot more worth it to use power attack. The chances are not so good that a normal hit will drop it in one round; much better than your power attack will. If you hit. Because it will kill the monster in one shot, REMOVING an enemy action (otherwise it gets to attack again next round).
Similarly, imagine going up against something huge (say, 100 HP). You do 5 HP more with your power attack hit. Will that percolate down, after the monster has been hit a lot more, to it dying a round earlier? What are the odds of this? How often does that 5HP actually get the monster to act 1 time less?
The decision to use Power Attack isn't just a mathematical one of higher DPR. A DPR of 15 compared to 17 is drowned out by other considerations, such as: what sort of enemy is this? Does it have special resistances? It is really weak and injured, and any sort of hit will kill it? Is it juicy fresh and we need to somehow kill it as soon as possible, before we all die?
My impression is that many times these sorts of decisions are very difficult to make accurately, and power attack should be avoided simply to remove this constant stress/worry from the player's mind.
I'd say that 95% of the time it's either optimal or can't be proved that isn't not optional given the circumstances to NOT use Power Attack. The other 5% of the time you have to think really hard about it and have some rather strange circumstances going on. I don't want to take a feat which makes me sweat and rewards me so rarely. NO thanks.