Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker Box Office Predictions

[Legatus Legionis]

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[Zardnaar]

As much as people were interested in Attack of the Clones when it came out (How did the Empire gets its military might) everyone I know does not care for Episode 9.

The destroy the past/make a film I want to make/screw developing plot points/etc. killed the franchise.

And after the head of Lucasfilm berating the fans of THEIR version of Star Wars, I am being overly optimistic on that $700M total global take.

That is even with reports Disney and dataracer on Twitter claiming they are doing another Capt.marvel any buying tickets to inflate numbers. And how Disney is being reported to having faked/cooked their books in reporting revenue, I would not be surprised in the least this is happening again.

Still it's so hard to guess one way or another. My exact number is 1 234 567 890 based on my nothing whatsoever.

 

[Nebulous]

My guess is it will be a dumpster fire, but people will go just to see how the saga ends. EP 7 & 8 sucked and I could care less about any of the new characters. Watching paint dry will probably be more exciting.

That's my opinion. I DO think the 3rd one will be the best of three, but honestly I don't care and I'm not giving Disney my money.

The Mandalorian, however, looks damn impressive. I'm sick of the Skywalker storyline, it should have ended in 1983. Well, if George had come out with is own versions of Episodes 7,8,9 within a reasonable amount of time, those might have been good. Who knows.

 

[ccs]

If it goes that low or close to it there's something seriously wrong.

There IS something seriously wrong. But without a time machine or mass brainwashing TFA & TLJ can't be fixed.

I'll bet about 1.3b (+/- 500m)

 

[Zardnaar]

There IS something seriously wrong. But without a time machine or mass brainwashing TFA & TLJ can't be fixed.

I'll bet about 1.3b (+/- 500m)

IDK how much if any of an impact it will have on the bottom line.

 

[Kaodi]

If the movie is good it will make scads of money.

 

[Morrus]

If the movie is good it will make scads of money.

Generally speaking, quality is a terrible predictor of success; marketing is far more important in the modern world. Plenty of excellent stuff makes no money, and plenty of crap makes tons (and vice versa).

 

[Kaodi]

That is a good point, though this is hardly a general case: the franchise is the marketing. How much money the movie makes relative to other movies in the franchise is, I think, fairly dependent on quality. These are the sorts of movies that people go to watch multiple times, and that only works if the movie is good .

 

[Umbran]

...everyone I know does not care for Episode 9.

You do realize that "everyone I know" (for any value of "I") is generally a group selected to already share opinions and tastes similar to yours? That makes it a poor indicator of what the market at large will do.

The Last Jedi made on the order of $1.3 billion dollars at the box office worldwide. For the box office to drop by half is not a reasonable expectation.

That is even with reports Disney and dataracer on Twitter claiming they are doing another Capt.marvel any buying tickets to inflate numbers. And how Disney is being reported to having faked/cooked their books in reporting revenue, I would not be surprised in the least this is happening again.

Please give citations from reliable and reputable sources, or this is just unsubstantiated rumor that we shouldn't use to set expectations. Just looking at the feed - "dataracer117" on twitter is not what I'd call a reliable source.

 

[Zardnaar]

You do realize that "everyone I know" (for any value of "I") is generally a group selected to already share opinions and tastes similar to yours? That makes it a poor indicator of what the market at large will do.

The Last Jedi made on the order of $1.3 billion dollars at the box office worldwide. For the box office to drop by half is not a reasonable expectation.



Please give citations from reliable and reputable sources, or this is just unsubstantiated rumor that we shouldn't use to set expectations. Just looking at the feed - "dataracer117" on twitter is not what I'd call a reliable source.

That rumors on YouTube and they used photos of booking on one of the online sites.

Basically the same seats had been booked the week of RoS release. Same pattern almost booking out the theatre.

The sources are not unbiased and most rumors are BS but that one has a little bit more gas to it.

If you live in a big city check you local online booking.

As to losing half I don't think it will happen but TLJ was down a 1/3rd over TFA and Solo was down 60% vs Rogue One.

Losing half is actually plausible.

Toy sales are down,the theme park seems to be underperforming and they canceled the TV show.

How much impact if any that will have idk. That is the great mystery.