Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker Box Office Predictions

Zardnaar

Legend
This one has me beat. Its Star Wars so its hard to lose money but we can look at the drop offs between TFA and Rogue 1 vs TLJ and Solo and yeah. IDK how this one will play at but will have a few guesses.

Absolute Upper Limit
I don't see RoS beating TFA no matter what so the upper limit is say 2 billion.

The lower limit no one knows but but if it follows the pattern of declining sales I would put it around 700 million (TLJ got about 1.3). If it gets less than 700 million I would be shocked so I'll put this at the absolute low point. I cant really see it getting Solo level numbers no matter what. They could have George Lucas belching the star spangled banner into a microphone and get that.

Now generally Star Wars trilogies decline that is the next two earn less than the 1st one. In the original trilogy each movie got less than the previous, in the prequels RotS got more than AotC. Probably obvious there AotC is probably the worst Star Wars movie (ignoring Ewok and animated ones).

Based on that and adjusting for a bit for inflation RoS will likely get IMHO 1.5 to 1.1 billion dollars. I got this figure by +/- 200 million on each side of TLJ take.
 

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My guess is it will be a dumpster fire, but people will go just to see how the saga ends. EP 7 & 8 sucked and I could care less about any of the new characters. Watching paint dry will probably be more exciting.
 

RSIxidor

Adventurer
Absolute Upper Limit
I don't see RoS beating TFA no matter what so the upper limit is say 2 billion.

I agree with this for sure. It being the end of the saga isn't going to draw as many seats as returning to the saga after so many years did. I think it will almost definitely do better than Rogue One and likely will do better than TLJ.
 


Zardnaar

Legend
It is beating Endgame presales by 45% and has blasted through TFA’s initial figures.

Solo had good presales as well.

Lighthearted thread though guess a number.

TFA 2 billion
TLJ 1.3 billion
Rogue One 1 billion

I don't see it pulling a Solo and I'm fairly certain it will get between TFA and Rogue One.
 



GreyLord

Legend
Not sure. The actual source of the reports say something different about presales than the reports that use it as a source. All we can garner is that for the two sites the information comes from is that TROS beat TFA in the first few hours of sales on Fandango (though, Fandango crashed during the first few hours of sales for TFA, so I'm not sure that's a good qualifier) and Atom (which had a LOT LESS people using it for TLJ in release).

It's tricky predicting how this film will do. TLJ created a lot of ill will that many have attempted to brush under the carpet, but brushing it aside doesn't normally solve the problem.

So, for me it's really a wild card without any other information to rely on (they do surveys and other things to attempt to make a prediction, normally pretty good ones. However, I have none of that at my fingertips yet and probably won't until at least a month or more).

I'll give a tentative...somewhere between 600 M and 1.1 B for TROS. I think it will do better than Solo, but not as good as TLJ. It might do somewhere in the range of RO if they are lucky.

But that's just a complete and wild guess on my part.

PS: Yes, I know 500 M is massive for an estimate range...but without really any good information to go off of, it truly is a wild card. It could turn to irony and that range is how much it makes (500M) because that really is how big a gap it is. It's almost as good as not making a guess, but this is a wild gander time because I don't have enough information at this point to even hazard a decent educated guess.
 


Zardnaar

Legend
I would be surprised if its actually GLOBAL take makes it to $700 Million.

China cares not for Star Wars, and with no one's kids interested in Star Wars items (ie toys and cloths) when they can get MCU stuff.

I also think too many people have now come to view Star Wars as something to stream online a few months after theatrical release.

Disney Star Wars is NOT a must see in theater film.

If it goes that low or close to it there's something seriously wrong.

Adjusting for inflation and ignoring Solo the low point is Attack of the Clones at around 895 million.

Using box office mojo for worldwide numbers.

I don't think it will go that low.
 
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Zardnaar

Legend
As much as people were interested in Attack of the Clones when it came out (How did the Empire gets its military might) everyone I know does not care for Episode 9.

The destroy the past/make a film I want to make/screw developing plot points/etc. killed the franchise.

And after the head of Lucasfilm berating the fans of THEIR version of Star Wars, I am being overly optimistic on that $700M total global take.

That is even with reports Disney and dataracer on Twitter claiming they are doing another Capt.marvel any buying tickets to inflate numbers. And how Disney is being reported to having faked/cooked their books in reporting revenue, I would not be surprised in the least this is happening again.

Still it's so hard to guess one way or another. My exact number is 1 234 567 890 based on my nothing whatsoever.
 

Nebulous

Legend
My guess is it will be a dumpster fire, but people will go just to see how the saga ends. EP 7 & 8 sucked and I could care less about any of the new characters. Watching paint dry will probably be more exciting.

That's my opinion. I DO think the 3rd one will be the best of three, but honestly I don't care and I'm not giving Disney my money.

The Mandalorian, however, looks damn impressive. I'm sick of the Skywalker storyline, it should have ended in 1983. Well, if George had come out with is own versions of Episodes 7,8,9 within a reasonable amount of time, those might have been good. Who knows.
 




Morrus

Well, that was fun
Staff member
If the movie is good it will make scads of money.
Generally speaking, quality is a terrible predictor of success; marketing is far more important in the modern world. Plenty of excellent stuff makes no money, and plenty of crap makes tons (and vice versa).
 

Kaodi

Adventurer
That is a good point, though this is hardly a general case: the franchise is the marketing. How much money the movie makes relative to other movies in the franchise is, I think, fairly dependent on quality. These are the sorts of movies that people go to watch multiple times, and that only works if the movie is good .
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
...everyone I know does not care for Episode 9.

You do realize that "everyone I know" (for any value of "I") is generally a group selected to already share opinions and tastes similar to yours? That makes it a poor indicator of what the market at large will do.

The Last Jedi made on the order of $1.3 billion dollars at the box office worldwide. For the box office to drop by half is not a reasonable expectation.

That is even with reports Disney and dataracer on Twitter claiming they are doing another Capt.marvel any buying tickets to inflate numbers. And how Disney is being reported to having faked/cooked their books in reporting revenue, I would not be surprised in the least this is happening again.

Please give citations from reliable and reputable sources, or this is just unsubstantiated rumor that we shouldn't use to set expectations. Just looking at the feed - "dataracer117" on twitter is not what I'd call a reliable source.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
You do realize that "everyone I know" (for any value of "I") is generally a group selected to already share opinions and tastes similar to yours? That makes it a poor indicator of what the market at large will do.

The Last Jedi made on the order of $1.3 billion dollars at the box office worldwide. For the box office to drop by half is not a reasonable expectation.



Please give citations from reliable and reputable sources, or this is just unsubstantiated rumor that we shouldn't use to set expectations. Just looking at the feed - "dataracer117" on twitter is not what I'd call a reliable source.

That rumors on YouTube and they used photos of booking on one of the online sites.

Basically the same seats had been booked the week of RoS release. Same pattern almost booking out the theatre.

The sources are not unbiased and most rumors are BS but that one has a little bit more gas to it.

If you live in a big city check you local online booking.

As to losing half I don't think it will happen but TLJ was down a 1/3rd over TFA and Solo was down 60% vs Rogue One.

Losing half is actually plausible.

Toy sales are down,the theme park seems to be underperforming and they canceled the TV show.

How much impact if any that will have idk. That is the great mystery.
 

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