£7.
Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker Box Office Predictions
GreyLord
Legend
I'd say it's FAR too early to actually make an accurate prediction.
If we go by marketing, Disney has an uphill battle at this point. There's been a LOT of negativity towards Disney and they way it's taken SW to the point that most people who have any connections to the Geek stuff online have at least heard it if not more. However, it is very possible this is only a minority representation, and that a majority of those who would see the movie haven't heard a thing (as they don't even look at the Geek stuff online or elsewhere). One may have no idea what they are thinking (whether it is positive or negative).
That said, I disagree that it's just marketing (as in official marketing) that determines sales with franchises or sequels to movies. There's how people feel about the franchise to how the older movie (or movies) have aged in favor with people. There's a whole lot of various factors which is why doing surveys and other impact studies on trailers and how people react are important to predictions on how a film will or will not do.
I've heard a lot of stuff about the Star Wars franchise over the past year both good and bad. Sometimes those who are loudest are not the majority nor represent the majority. Sometimes they do. Sometimes you get a TMNT sequel, other times you get Avengers: Endgame. I think this one's pretty hard to predict how it will do at this point, though I know how many are HOPING it will do (both good sides and bad).
Long term edit 4 weeks later: I'm narrowing the US domestic prediction to probably somewhere between 500M - 800 M USD. World wide grosses are more difficult but China who is normally a major player in many movie success will basically be a non-factor for this one IMO. I don't think it's going to do well in China which will leave it up to Europe to make up the difference if it is going to be able to hit over a Billion. There are chances I think that it may not even hit that, though if it does I'll say it could get to the 1.1 B mark USD...but I'm going to go a little safer and place the movie at around a 600M - 950 M at this point.
Luckily, though one can try to make an educated guess, guesses on this stuff is like gambling...often your prediction is wrong no matter how well you cage it (and 300 M is a pretty big cage).
If we go by marketing, Disney has an uphill battle at this point. There's been a LOT of negativity towards Disney and they way it's taken SW to the point that most people who have any connections to the Geek stuff online have at least heard it if not more. However, it is very possible this is only a minority representation, and that a majority of those who would see the movie haven't heard a thing (as they don't even look at the Geek stuff online or elsewhere). One may have no idea what they are thinking (whether it is positive or negative).
That said, I disagree that it's just marketing (as in official marketing) that determines sales with franchises or sequels to movies. There's how people feel about the franchise to how the older movie (or movies) have aged in favor with people. There's a whole lot of various factors which is why doing surveys and other impact studies on trailers and how people react are important to predictions on how a film will or will not do.
I've heard a lot of stuff about the Star Wars franchise over the past year both good and bad. Sometimes those who are loudest are not the majority nor represent the majority. Sometimes they do. Sometimes you get a TMNT sequel, other times you get Avengers: Endgame. I think this one's pretty hard to predict how it will do at this point, though I know how many are HOPING it will do (both good sides and bad).
Long term edit 4 weeks later: I'm narrowing the US domestic prediction to probably somewhere between 500M - 800 M USD. World wide grosses are more difficult but China who is normally a major player in many movie success will basically be a non-factor for this one IMO. I don't think it's going to do well in China which will leave it up to Europe to make up the difference if it is going to be able to hit over a Billion. There are chances I think that it may not even hit that, though if it does I'll say it could get to the 1.1 B mark USD...but I'm going to go a little safer and place the movie at around a 600M - 950 M at this point.
Luckily, though one can try to make an educated guess, guesses on this stuff is like gambling...often your prediction is wrong no matter how well you cage it (and 300 M is a pretty big cage).
Last edited:
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