At the craps table, am I more empowered if I get to roll, or if the croupier does? Assuming the dice are fair and no one is going to try and cheat, it makes no difference. If I roll, there is at best the illusion of agency!
And yet, one of the reasons that characters were allowed saving throws against powerful spells and effects is that they should, in some way, have a say in their own fate. Coincidentally, that's one area where 4E differs from every other edition. I mean, I agree with your example, but there's still a (statistically meaningless) difference between the DM asking you to roll a save against death or the DM informing you that you failed your save against death.
Two more points. First, the players' educated guess will almost certainly involve metagaming (the players' sense of what the GM's inclinations and preferences are, what tropes are in play, etc).
The GM of an RPG is the god who created that world. The PCs live in that world. The PCs should be more familiar with how things work in that world than the players should. Just like it's not meta-gaming to ask how many HP someone has left, because the PCs actually
can see whatever the in-game reality is which corresponds to HP.
Second, short of the GM telling the players that the writing will be in a foreign language, or that the sacrifice is going to happen right now, how are the players going to know that they will lose if they choose to go left?
They don't know. Just like you wouldn't know the outcome, if you were faced with that same decision in real life. The core of role-playing is imagining that you are the character, and making decisions from that perspective.
Ridiculous advice! If the GM doesn't want the players to explore these other worlds, don't include them in the module. If options are included in the GM's world, and from the perspective of the players there is nothing to suggest that interacting with them is a waste of time relative to the players' goals for their PCs, then a GM who configures things such they are in fact a waste of time is, in my view, hosing the players. And to then try to cover up for that by giving "discouraging clues" is just supplementing poor initial design with poor run-time technique.
I think that just goes to show how far out of touch you are from what the game was intended to be, and how the game is actually played.
The differences from real life are so many and varies it's hard for me to know where to begin. Probably the main one is that real life is real. It takes place in a world in which events really take place, constrained by and driven by causal laws.
This is not difficult for a skilled DM to emulate. The fictional world should also be constrained and driven by causal laws, even if the rules in the book only show us a sub-set of the ramifications of those laws, filtered by what is relevant to a sub-set of the population.
If the difference is not epistemically accessible to the players, then we are still talking about the players taking a gamble on the GM's secret backstory. If the difference is partially accessible, but the relationship between the choices and success is not epistemically accessible, then were are in the same general area as my modified example above: the GM's choices about how options connect and interrelate have become the pre-eminent determinants of the outcomes of play. It is a GM-driven game.
Very little within the game-world is not
knowable to the players. It's just a question of what resources they care to spend on figuring it out. The GM creates the game-world, and populates it with monsters and NPCs and whatever else, but
only the players can decide where the story goes. (By definition, the story is whatever happens around the PCs.)
To the extent that "mismatch between expectations" is in play, that seems to be an issue of metagaming - the players aren't able to read the GM's preferences for tropes, plotlines, narrative elements etc. Which strikes me as plausible, but somewhat at odds with what I took your preferences to be.
This sort of mismatch should sort itself out within a few sessions, and highlights the importance of talking about what kind of game it is before you start playing. I just wanted to cover the possibility that you might show up at my D&D game, and then not understand what your role in the game is supposed to be; you might feel that your choices don't matter, because you aren't asking the questions that would get you the information you might want in order to make informed choices later on.
If the GM decides that if the players choose to have their PCs go left then rocks fall, and if the players choose to have them go right then there is a chance of a PC victory (eg a combat will ensue, to be resolved via the combat mechanics), the players' action declarations for their PCs will affect the outcome of the campaign. But by my lights no meaningful choice will have been made.
As I've mentioned many times, no choice is ever truly random. If the left path leads to rocks falling, then there should be some way to determine that, or else it's a DM failure.
Suppose that the GM provides the players with three plot hooks, and one leads to B1, one to B2 and one to B4 - let's say that, in the inn, the PCs hear rumours of the Caverns of Quasqueton, they meet a rider from the Keep who mentions the Caves of Chaos, and they meet a mercenary captain wanting to hire guards for a desert caravan crossing. Is this meaningful choice? Not really - the players, at this stage, don't know what any of the adventures involve, what level of threat their PCs will confront, what treasures they might gain, etc. It's basically random.
The players have no way of knowing what
any of those adventures will involve, or what threats or treasure might be there, unless they're meta-gaming (i.e. cheating). They have reason to believe that the first two options will involve some spelunking, and the last will involve a lot of walking. If any of them end up somewhere that the PCs don't want to be - giant spiders, for example - then they're free to abandon the quest and find a new one.
Of course. But how is that choice disrespected by the GM deciding that the mysterious stranger is also there (perhaps because she, also, likes mead).
The decision to visit Tavern X is a decision to encounter those people who have also decided to visit Tavern X. If you then decide that the mysterious stranger possesses this trait, then you are letting player choice dictate her backstory.
This is a total red herring. No one in this discussion is talking about player authorship of backstory. The discussion is about the basis on which the GM makes decisions about backstory and consequences.
If the DM makes decisions based on cues from the players, then the player is indirectly authoring the backstory. The player could cause other things to happen in the backstory, by asserting different preferences to the DM.