The EN World Best Sellers List 4Q2015

Books have the New York Times (and many others) Bestsellers List. Movies and television shows have websites that track box office numbers and Nielsen ratings. Comics have sales lists all over the place. What we don’t have a lot of for role-playing games are lists of what is selling. There are some publishers who go public with their sales figures, but it is harder to build an overall idea of how things are working from something like that. Now we have an EN World Bestsellers List for RPGs.
Will these lists tell us what the most popular game in gaming is right now? No, but it will allow us to have a starting point for conversations. Which is a good thing.

Thanks go out especially to Michael Webb, VP of Marketing and Data Services for Alliance Game Distributors, helped me out by putting me in touch with those he considered to be “top retailers.” Hopefully we will see these articles on a quarterly basis. These lists all refer to the stores’ last quarter of 2015 sales.

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From Angie Blackmon of Dragons Lair Comics and Fantasy Austin, TX comes:

The top five RPG items overall are…
D&D 5th Edition PHB
D&D 5th Edition Starter Set
D&D 5th Edition DM Screen
D&D 5th Edition DMG
D&D Fantasy Miniatures Icons of the Realm (Assorted Sets)

The top five RPG systems are…
D&D 5th Edition
Pathfinder Core Rules
Fate Core Rules
Star Wars RPG Edge of the Empire
Shadowrun RPG 5th Edition

This information is from our Merchandising Manager, Michael Wolff, on indie RPGs.
"First, the new version of the Dragon Age RPG released this year and it’s a marked improvement over the previous version. Green Ronin streamlined their system a lot and pulled from all corners of the Dragon Age world to make new character options, backgrounds, and campaign ideas. Even if I wasn’t a Dragon Age superfan I’d still be interested, since it’s a simple 3d6 based system that is still tactically rich and intuitive. The best part about it to me is the inclusion of “stunt points”, which occur on a doubles roll from any 2 dice. This ability lets you add flair or other effects to whatever you’re rolling, and keeps games and stories interesting, sometimes when you least expect it. I’m still itching to run a game of this, especially since it’s all (so far) in one book at a good price. They should be releasing various sourcebooks and add-ons in the coming year."

"The other main book I’ve been keeping an eye on is Star Wars: Force and Destiny. Fantasy Flight’s not exactly a small company, but the creation of a game that lets people play out their childhood fantasies of being a Jedi and using the Force is fan service incarnate. That’s not a bad thing, if you ask me. The best part, if you ask me, about the Star Wars RPGs is that they all have a unique dice system of variable success or failure which keeps games from falling into binary pass/fail mechanics, which I and others I know appreciate. Force and Destiny, like all other Star Wars RPGs, is definitely hanging around for a while, since FFG has a solid release schedule of expansions as the games age. I’m hoping that after the movie comes out, they create a campaign or book related to the Force Awakens events and characters."

"The last one I’ve noticed lately is the Dread RPG. This is the horror themed game that’s played with a set of Jenga blocks. Every time a difficult decision is made or an action happens, a player has to pull from the tower and hope it doesn’t fall. If it does, bad stuff happens. It’s gained in popularity after being played on TableTop, and because of this unique inclusion for decision making. It’s definitely more suited to one-shot type games rather than long campaigns but it still seems very different compared to its peers. This one is an older one, so it’s not getting updates anytime soon, but it’s still grown vastly in popularity thanks to Wil Wheaton."

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Travis Severance of Millennium Games in Rochester, New York provided:

Individual Products:
1. 5th ed PHB
2. 5th ed DM Screen
3. 5th ed Monster Manual
4. 5th ed DMG
5. 5th ed Starter Set

Lines:
1. D&D
2. Shadowrun
3. Pathfinder
4. Star Wars
5. Fate

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Paul Butler of Games and Stuff in Glen Burnie, Maryland provided this list of product by quantity sold.

1. Sword Coast Adventurer's Guide (Dungeons & Dragons 5e)
2. Player's Handbook (Dungeons & Dragons 5e)
3. Monster Manual (Dungeons & Dragons 5e)
4. Bestiary 5 (Pathfinder)
5. Dungeon Master's Guide (Dungeons & Dragons 5e)

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Steve Ellis of Rainy Day Games in Aloha, Oregon sent in this list:

Top 5 RPG Items:
- D&D5 Sword Coast Adv Guide (Wizards of the Coast)
- D&D5 Players Handbook (Wizards of the Coast)
- D&D5 Starter Set (Wizards of the Coast)
- D&D5 Spellbook Cards Cleric (Gale Force Nine)
- D&D5 Dungeon Masters Screen (Wizards of the Coast)

Top 5 RPG Systems:
- D&D5 (Wizards of the Coast)
... HUGE GAP
- Star Wars RPGs (Fantasy Flight Games)
...another decent gap
- Mouse Guard RPG (Archaia Studio Press)
- Pathfinder (Paizo)
- Savage Worlds (Studio 2 Publishing)

Putting on my analyst cap, I think that the obvious is shown: D&D is a big seller across the country. I don’t think that surprises anyone. What I think surprises me is the fact that there really isn’t a clear “winner” for the second place spot. Fantasy Flight Games Star Wars lines look like they are battling it out with Paizo’s Pathfinder for second place, with a pretty much everything else fighting for the other places at the table. Certainly not as clear cut as you would think.

Pinnacle’s Savage Worlds and Evil Hat’s Fate games have a good standing, and it is good to see Mouse Guard getting a mention.

Hopefully we will be back next quarter, to see how these games fared into the new year. As with anything new, we are all learning what we want to do with these lists and I learned more about the questions that I want to ask retailers. With the next quarter, I hope to pick up a retailer or two who were unable to respond, and maybe even convince OneBookShelf to give us a peak into some of their best sellers.

Updated 2/18/16
Matt McElroy, the Director of Publishing and Marketing at OneBookShelf has contributed their top five best sellers for last quarter (and they will be contributing to this list going forward):

Top Five selling titles:
Mage: the Ascension 20th Anniversary Edition - Onyx Path Publishing
Shadowrun: Rigger 5.0 - Catalyst Game Labs
Vampire: The Masquerade 20th Anniversary Edition - White Wolf Publishing
Chronicles of Darkness - Onyx Path Publishing
Shadowrun: Hard Targets (Deep Shadows Sourcebook) - Catalyst Game Labs


Top Five selling Systems:
World of Darkness, classic (Storyteller System)
Pathfinder
World of Darkness, new (Storytelling System)
Savage Worlds
Fate

 

[Hussar]

There still doesn't appear to be a good way of integrating sales through non-retail means (eg Kickstarter, eBook or POD). These figures do not present a complete picture on what is selling in RPGs these days.

This was a comment I missed the last time around.

Do Kickstarter products actually matter? I'm certainly not a frequent flyer on Kickstarter, but, how many copies are we generally looking at. I know for the Thule Kickstarter, they got about 800 (ish) backers. IOW, such a minuscule run that it wouldn't even register as a blip on anyone's radar.

Are there RPG kick-starters hitting the 30-50 k backers mark? Because that's the kind of numbers you'd need to make any sort of real impact. Otherwise, you're selling (or whatever you want to call it) to a tiny niche and the overwhelming majority of gamers won't ever hear of you.

I know the Reaper Minis have been doing fantastic things. But, what about actual RPG's?

 

[TrippyHippy]

The Onyx Path (White Wolf's licencee) regularly raises upwards of $100,000 for each RPG product. They've raised over 2/3 of a million for Exalted and Mage: The Ascension respectively. Do they matter? I dunno. Is the money raised insignificant? Not to the companies that run them, at least. Are these figures factored into the charts at all? No - and that's all I'm saying.

 

[delericho]

This was a comment I missed the last time around.

Do Kickstarter products actually matter? I'm certainly not a frequent flyer on Kickstarter, but, how many copies are we generally looking at. I know for the Thule Kickstarter, they got about 800 (ish) backers. IOW, such a minuscule run that it wouldn't even register as a blip on anyone's radar.

That's a fair point. A quick check indicates that Numenera got ~4.7k backers, The Strange ~2.8k, and the Seventh Sea on is currently at ~2.6k (and ongoing). So Kickstarter by itself doesn't appear to be a huge factor. Added to all the other sources of sales, it might bump a game up a place or two, I guess. But a game would need to be close to the top ten anyway for it to matter.

 

[Queer Venger]

*Warning, Pure Speculation Ahead*

Before 5e came out, most of the polls I saw split D&D into about 40% Pathfinder, 40% 3e and 20% 4e. ((Yes, Yes, I know there was more, but, accept a flinch factor of say 10% with those numbers) There was little sense that Pathfinder or 4e managed to draw in large crowds of new players. Again, I'm not saying nobody started with those games, but, I think that overall, the number of current D&D players (in any edition) didn't particularly grow.

Then comes 5e and it's a smashing success. It appears to have gobbled up both the 4e and the 3e players. No one even talks about either game very much anymore. Again, I'm sure there are holdouts, but, by and large, 5e managed to hoover up both those groups and probably take a bite out of the Pathfinder chunk as well. Additionally, it appears that 5e is pulling in fair numbers of new (and lapsed) players as well. Either those who have never played before, or those who had gotten out of the hobby years ago (or possibly sat as hold outs for AD&D and OSR games).

Now time is passing. 5e is still front and centre of the hobby. New players are quite likely to see 5e first. The widespread Adventurers League play pretty much guarantees that if you walk into a hobby store, you're going to see 5e. And 5e has a much, much lower barrier to entry than Pathfinder. (I hope that's not a contentious point.) Which possibly means that 5e has not only sucked up existing gamers, but is taking the lions share of new gamers as well.

Move the timeline forward a few years. If this trend continues, is there anything Pathfinder can do to attract new blood? IMO, they'll probably continue nibbling off of gamers who start with 5e, then want something more crunchy. But, I don't believe that Pathfinder is going to see large growth in the near to mid future (say, next five years or so).

I'm not sure if a Pathfinder 2.0 is enough to stop the bleeding.

OTOH, does it matter? So long as Pathfinder is replacing players at the same rate that they are losing them, isn't that a win? They can keep doing exactly what they are doing - creating very high quality material for a specific setting - indefinitely. Pathfinder does not have to be the number one selling game to be a success.

I think you are right, PF does not have to be the number one selling game anymore, since they aren't. But its always healthy to have a number 2 spot.

 

[darjr]

Also the phenomenal growth of D&D will help Pathfinder. Especially with their own living campaign being as good as it is.

 

[Tony Vargas]

*Warning, Pure Speculation Ahead*

Before 5e came out, most of the polls I saw split D&D into about 40% Pathfinder, 40% 3e and 20% 4e. ((Yes, Yes, I know there was more, but, accept a flinch factor of say 10% with those numbers) There was little sense that Pathfinder or 4e managed to draw in large crowds of new players. Again, I'm not saying nobody started with those games, but, I think that overall, the number of current D&D players (in any edition) didn't particularly grow.

The total number may not have grown with any edition after 1e (indeed, they've doubtless shrunk slowly), but that doesn't mean there weren't new players partially replacing the loss. The sense I got was that 4e drew in new players moreso than other eds, it just repelled old ones in nearly equal measure. 5e comes out and most 4e players, old & new, neatly transition to it, along with those longtime D&Ders who didn't defect to PF, and returning classic-D&D fans who haven't played since the 20th century, and you have huge success.

One thing I think we didn't realize was that 3.x/PF wasn't a monolithic group. PF fans may be solidly committed, but maybe 3.5 fans who never went as far as converting to PF were more open to 5e?

Then comes 5e and it's a smashing success. It appears to have gobbled up both the 4e and the 3e players. No one even talks about either game very much anymore. Additionally, it appears that 5e is pulling in fair numbers of new (and lapsed) players as well.

I think more lapsed. That's really who it's aimed at, it's familiar to returning players in a way that 3.x and 4e weren't.

In addition, the small number of books on the shelf have to be less intimidating to would-be new players than any time since the fad years. 2e, 3e, & 4e all had a huge number of books sitting on the shelf. That could get more new players to try it, but there's still the problem of retaining them, something 5e's focus on classic feel doesn't help with.

5e is still front and centre of the hobby. New players are quite likely to see 5e first. The widespread Adventurers League play pretty much guarantees that if you walk into a hobby store, you're going to see 5e.

Which is how it's always been with D&D. It's the gateway to the hobby. It's mostly been a fairly selective gateway that turns a lot of potential new players away. 5e doesn't much change that.

Move the timeline forward a few years. If this trend continues, is there anything Pathfinder can do to attract new blood?

PF is a callback to 3.5, it's appeal is how much it's mechanically like 3.5, that's it. 5e is a callback to the classic game, it's appeal is how much it feels like AD&D or old-school D&D, and that's about it. The big difference is that the pool of rabid 3.5 fans who absolutely refuse to change has already been largely captured by PF (and the ones that haven't been may also be drawn to 5e), while the pool of lapsed one-time D&D fans who played back when it was a fad is still pretty huge.

I'm not sure if a Pathfinder 2.0 is enough to stop the bleeding.

What would it even be? Their fanbase is united by sunk system mastery investment and adamant rejection of change? How do you build on that?

So long as Pathfinder is replacing players at the same rate that they are losing them, isn't that a win?

Even slowly net-loosing fans, as is probably the case, isn't fatal, you can spin out a product line like that for decades and make plenty of money, while trying to get something else going.

They can keep doing exactly what they are doing - creating very high quality material for a specific setting - indefinitely. Pathfinder does not have to be the number one selling game to be a success.

The thing is, Paizo isn't just PF, they're also a company that made very popular adventures for D&D, they could get back into that pretty seamlessly with D&D having come back to the OGL. First include 5e stats in the back of new PF Adventures. Eventually swap it around with PF stats in the back.

Pathfinder may have passed it's peak, but Paizo still has lots of opportunity.

 

[Shasarak]

I am surprised to see the DMs Screen make the best sellers list.

 

[Hussar]

The Onyx Path (White Wolf's licencee) regularly raises upwards of $100,000 for each RPG product. They've raised over 2/3 of a million for Exalted and Mage: The Ascension respectively. Do they matter? I dunno. Is the money raised insignificant? Not to the companies that run them, at least. Are these figures factored into the charts at all? No - and that's all I'm saying.

Fair enough. But, then again, a hundred grand is not a lot of money. ((Ok, it's a lot of money for ME, but, for a company?) How many books would you produce on that? By the time you pay authors, artists, advertising, printing, etc. 1000? 10000? There's no way it's a hundred thousand books. In a market where anything less than 10000 books is more or less a rounding error, how much of an impact are we talking about?

 

[TrippyHippy]

Fair enough. But, then again, a hundred grand is not a lot of money. ((Ok, it's a lot of money for ME, but, for a company?) How many books would you produce on that? By the time you pay authors, artists, advertising, printing, etc. 1000? 10000? There's no way it's a hundred thousand books. In a market where anything less than 10000 books is more or less a rounding error, how much of an impact are we talking about?

That's a regular $100,000 per campaign, including campaigns for supplements. The overall turnover of The Onyx Path would be in the millions. They have about 20 gamelines in their RPG programme. The director, Richard Thomas has stated that he does not regard the traditional retail market as being worth bothering with within their own business plan. It's not the number of books that are produced that is the business factor, it's the time it takes to sell them.

Moreover, White Wolf (the license owner) was recently bought for a multi-million deal with Paradox Entertainment, with the expressed value of the WoD IPs being the second biggest IP in roleplaying (after D&D).

You'll also note that one of the titles on your list was actually launched via a kickstarter (FATE).

As I say, we could speculate the value of what is produced on kickstarter, or pdf or POD, but the fact is neither of us truly know what the figures are and they aren't factored in these charts as they stand.

 

[Radaceus]

Great stuff! I've felt that 5E has helped usher a new enthusiasm in D&D and possibly RPGs in general. (VTT's of course had a hand in hand influence).

What I really would be interested in hearing is the comparison to CCG sales. Have card games declined, maintained, or improved during this period?

CCGs almost single-handedly rang the death knell on tabletop RPGs back in the 90s, and, along with MMO's in the last decade, helped to keep a stranglehold on the genre.

Maybe the storm has passed?


"The old that is strong does not wither,
Deep roots are not reached by the frost."