the tablet war is heating up

[Fast Learner]

If Apple sold 15 million iPads this year

They didn't, they've sold more than 25 million in the first three quarters (9 months) of this calendar year: first quarter, second quarter, third quarter (Apple's fiscal year is a quarter off the calendar year, so links are to appropriate quarters and so the total does not include the 7.33 million iPads sold in their first fiscal quarter).

and there were 6 million Android tablets sold in that time.........

There weren't. I haven't researched the total Android tablets actually sold to consumers this year, but the numbers you're likely quoting are from reports like those from Strategy Analytics, which are Android tablets shipped to retailers, not tablets actually sold. Apple's numbers are iPads actually sold to humans.

analysts are predicting 5 million Fires sold by the end of this year, based on the current rate of purchasing, that will make the delta more like 11 million vs. 15 million....not nearly so significant.

Assuming those numbers were correct -- which they weren't -- you're ignoring sales of iPads in the 4th calendar quarter. Apple sold 9.25 million last quarter, and the coming quarter is, as Christmas buying dictates, their annual best. Based on year-over-year sales increase percentages for the last two quarters (average of 174.5%), they're on track to sell more than 16 million iPads in this last quarter of the year; even working off the incorrect 6:15 starting ratio, you'd end up with 11:31.

The Fire is interesting and is likely to sell pretty well, but it -- and all Android tablets put together, even if you include those like the Nook that can't run most apps without hacking -- won't touch iPad sales this year.

Maybe next, we'll see.

 

[Fast Learner]

I'd expect the Fire to be the number one selling consumer electronic this Christmas.

I think that's extremely unlikely, if for no other reason that Amazon likely can't produce nearly enough to meet that ranking. As I noted in my previous post, Apple will likely sell around 16 million iPads this quarter, and many more iPhones; heck, they sold 4 million iPhone 4S devices in the first three days they were on sale. It's unlikely there will be more than 5 million or so Fires sold, unless Amazon has some secret production plants where they've been churning these things out for months already.

Heck, there will likely be more Kinects sold than Fires.

 

[Felon]

It's pretty much a given that there won't be enough Fires to meet the demand. Of course, that will only convince consumers that it must be worth having-as it did with the iPad--and thus further stimulate the demand. Probably the best thing Motorola could have done for the Xoom is have a limited initial production.

Android will always be a niche market for tablets. I think for most folks, a tablet fits more into the same category as a smartphone than a computer, and that puts Android at something of a disadvantage. I have an iphone specifically because I don't need or want a high level of "fidgetyness" where I can do a lot of tweaking and optimizing and searching for the best options, all at the expense at the lack of a unified, orderly experience. I don't want to weigh a bunc of podcast management apps against each other: I'll take the walled garden and get on with my life. When I get home and sit down at my desk, I want those walls gone, but I think tablets are sufficiently portable that users will seek a "guided" experience.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

IOW, like a lot of people, you take a "Just work, baby!" view on these things. Me too...but I'm an Applephile.

 

[Janx]

I have an iphone specifically because I don't need or want a high level of "fidgetyness" where I can do a lot of tweaking and optimizing and searching for the best options, all at the expense at the lack of a unified, orderly experience. I don't want to weigh a bunc of podcast management apps against each other: I'll take the walled garden and get on with my life. When I get home and sit down at my desk, I want those walls gone, but I think tablets are sufficiently portable that users will seek a "guided" experience.

good point here. My Android phone is under-utilized with what I can do with. I just don't care to dig in and optimize and customize. Maybe if I was younger and had more time to fiddle with it.

Whereas, I'm fine with the apps on my iPhone. in fact, choices for apps is a PITA. I don't want 10 dubious choices for a Remote Desktop contro app, or mail clients, or even PDF readers. I'd rather each feature be covered by a best of class app, and not worry about it.

Going back to the snippet I deleted, ponder this, for a simple home computer user: can they live with a tablet and NO computer?

a friend was advised to get an iPad for work (speech therapy) and wanting a new PC. So I suggested considering an iPad2 with the right Apps loaded up and a bluetooth keyboard instead of doing bot ipad and PC.

"normal" people just need email, spreadsheet, word processor, browser to be happy (most people just a browser and word processor).

Obviously, wouldn't fly for people who use other "real" applications. But a lot of people just do email and surf, and maybe write a document.

The friend fit the profile I'm suggesting, basically someone who barely knows how to use the computer for much beyond writing a paper, surfing or checking email.

I think the power of tablets is if my profile covers most users AND the apps are continuing to get advanced to cover the extra "real work" then fewer people need justify a clunky desktop or laptop.

 

[Felon]

IOW, like a lot of people, you take a "Just work, baby!" view on these things. Me too...but I'm an Applephile.

Well, I'm saying that there's a place for playing with knobs and dials, but that seems more of something to do when you can pull up a chair and lose myself in that ship-in-a-bottle type of effort. I own a PC for this reason.

On the go is not ship-in-a-bottle time, it's immediat-gratification time.

good point here. My Android phone is under-utilized with what I can do with. I just don't care to dig in and optimize and customize. Maybe if I was younger and had more time to fiddle with it.

Whereas, I'm fine with the apps on my iPhone. in fact, choices for apps is a PITA. I don't want 10 dubious choices for a Remote Desktop contro app, or mail clients, or even PDF readers. I'd rather each feature be covered by a best of class app, and not worry about it.

Going back to the snippet I deleted, ponder this, for a simple home computer user: can they live with a tablet and NO computer?

I have a friend who has sworn off anything non-Apple, and he still does not use his Mac simply because the iPad does everything he needs. He's not the ship-in-a-bottle type!

 

[Janx]

Well, I'm saying that there's a place for playing with knobs and dials, but that seems more of something to do when you can pull up a chair and lose myself in that ship-in-a-bottle type of effort. I own a PC for this reason.

knobs and dials has its place, I prefer it within the domain of the actual topic of interest.

I use a PC to run visual studio. Lots of knobs and dials to it, plus all the plug-ins and libraries I have to have. I don't particularly like it, as it complicates replicating that dev environment to all my devs. But I do like having lots of options WITHIN the code I'm writing to solve the actual problem.

My Pod XT Live multi-FX pedal has knobs and dials. When I want to configure it, I plug it into my PC and run GearBox. that lets me more easily fiddle with virtual knobs and dials.

So I suspect the key is knobs and dials to configure should be elegant and seemless. And too many choices over administrivia just gets in the way of the real work.

 

[falcarrion]

With all these tablets and ereaders that are now out or will be. Has anyone seen an increase of them at game tables? I have been using mine since Sept of 2010. And only one other person in the group uses one besides me. Though most of my friends are struggling during these hard times. What is your experiance?

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Well, at our table, I use my iTouch (after having used my Palm for years), another guy has been using his iPhone since it came out, one guy is using his laptop, and one guy is using my iMac (which is located at my desk, right next to the gaming table) to access his PC on the CB.

And I'll be getting my iPad 2 in another week or so...

 

[Janx]

With all these tablets and ereaders that are now out or will be. Has anyone seen an increase of them at game tables? I have been using mine since Sept of 2010. And only one other person in the group uses one besides me. Though most of my friends are struggling during these hard times. What is your experiance?

Of my friends, I'm the only one with a tablet. Most have iPhones but none have used them for gaming that I know of.

I'd been attempting to use laptop for running my character since 2000 (which the first attempt had the ironic factor of getting redirected on where the game was to a storage garage with no power ).

Since then, in the last few years, half the players in my posse use laptops and my spreadsheet to manage their PC.

Since getting my iPad, it's even better than a laptop. Takes up less space. No worries about running power to it (I do not trust laptops to run on battery if I can plug them in).