the tablet war is heating up

[Fast Learner]

Emphasis on "if", thanks.

I'm not sure, actually. There are all kinds of ifs, I suppose, but I assume that useful discussion is based on realistic information.

As to Android tablets, according to Andy Rubin ("There Are Over 6 Million Android Tablets Out There" - Andy Rubin), there are 6 million of them out there, so the guestimate I threw out there, of 6 million, seems to fall in line with those numbers currently.........and Honeycomb has only been out 7 months, so we'll see where they're at in 4 more months.

It's not clear what "out there" means, as again, there's "shipped to stores" and "actually sold to customers". There have been 40 million iPads actually sold to customers. Point being, the "6:15 becomes 11:15" isn't a meaningful "if" in any sense. "If 6:40 becomes 11:56" is at least in the right realm.

We can take another look in another 4 months, and see where things are at. Maybe they'll be the same, maybe they won't. Android started slow on phone as well, from what I understand, yet Given that Samsung alone has sold more Android ased phones than Apple has sold iPhones in Q3 of this year, apparently they've been catching up

I'm sure people will buy more Android tablets going forward, but as has been discussed ad nauseum in this forum, phone sales and tablet sales are entirely different beasts.

I'll *generally* predict success for the open standard with multiple manufacturers over one company trying to push their own proprietary hardware/software combo, when it comes to long term success.

Me, I'll generally predict success for an easy-to-use, safe, consistent product over one that's more difficult to use, prone to malware, and with an interface that changes dramatically with every iteration.

Some of the 2nd gen Android tablets are looking pretty nice...the new Toshiba one (the new one coming *after* the Thrive), as well as the Transformer 2.

Aye, any day now there will be a really good Android tablet. Just around the corner.

 

[Mallus]

Another thing to remember when discussing iOS vs. Android devices...

... it's not units shipped (to consumers or retailers) that really matters. It's profits.

Apple makes something like %75 of the profits in the smartphone market. It must make more from the tablet market -- what with no real competition yet. Fire will change that, but I doubt it will have much effect on Apple's profits as they target a lower end of the market (even used iPads aren't in the same price class... I think).

So even with all those Android devices out there, they don't make all that much in the way of the money...

 

[Mallus]

I'll *generally* predict success for the open standard with multiple manufacturers over one company trying to push their own proprietary hardware/software combo, when it comes to long term success.

Doing the exact opposite has worked for Apple so far...

... and my money is on it continuing to work. There is a high paying market segment that wants good design and ease-of-use. Techies tend to vastly overestimate how interested non-techies are with fiddling with their devices. Besides, it's not like you can't monkey around w/iOS devices...

 

[Banshee16]

I'm not sure, actually. There are all kinds of ifs, I suppose, but I assume that useful discussion is based on realistic information.

I didn't provide a link for that reference, as I didn't have one....whereas I had links for some of the other things I was pointing out, so I provided them.

It's not clear what "out there" means, as again, there's "shipped to stores" and "actually sold to customers". There have been 40 million iPads actually sold to customers. Point being, the "6:15 becomes 11:15" isn't a meaningful "if" in any sense. "If 6:40 becomes 11:56" is at least in the right realm.

It's a valid point. My understanding from Rubin's statement is that the 6 million he points two are activated devices. Now, if a device is activated, and then replaced because something went wrong, that equates to 2 activations for 1 purchase. But those are numbers I don't think anyone has. Are failure rates ever released?

I'm sure people will buy more Android tablets going forward, but as has been discussed ad nauseum in this forum, phone sales and tablet sales are entirely different beasts.

Me, I'll generally predict success for an easy-to-use, safe, consistent product over one that's more difficult to use, prone to malware, and with an interface that changes dramatically with every iteration.


Aye, any day now there will be a really good Android tablet. Just around the corner.

There already are good Android tablets. Galaxy Tab 10.1, ASUS Transformer, etc. I use my Transformer pretty much every day for work, and I am able to do far more with it than my partners with their iPads. I mean, the keyboards are slow for them, they don't find the note taking capabilities, even with a stylus, sufficient, and there are large numbers of websites that don't work correctly with them.

It's reached the point that I'm the only one who ends up bringing my tablet to work. They used theirs for about a month when they got them, and that's been it.

You have to separate "selling at iPad levels" from whether or not the device is "good".

Apple spends a significantly disproportionate amount of money on marketing their devices as compared to the Android tablets etc. and have achieved commensurate higher sales. I can see Apple commercials for the iPad and/or iPhone come up 4 times an hour during prime time TV watching. I get those commercials every bloody day, hour after hour from about 7 pm until 10 pm. How many Samsung or ASUS commercials have I seen in the same time span? Zero.....the only advertiser advertising to compete with Apple up here is RiM.....I see Playbook commercials, definitely.

Now maybe that's my market...maybe the other manufacturers just don't advertise in Canada much, but they do in the U.S. That I can't really attest to, as I don't watch TV in the U.S. All I can see is that from where I'm sitting, no commercials.

Consequently, very little awareness.

I've even given my tablet to relatives to play with....some of whom have iPads and iPhones. Comments I received? Easy to use. Seems to "do more than my iPad". "Wish I saw this before buying my iPad".

I'm *not* going to categorically state that the EEE Pad is a better device. I think there are different consumers with different tastes and requirements. But an inference that there are no good Android tablets is a little silly. I *will* state the personal opinion that I think it's a very good device. And that I've had several other people see it and be similarly impressed.

But 100% I feel there's very little product awareness. Many people will end up defaulting to the market leader, simply out of ignorance of alternative options. Those same people who don't want to futz with their devices etc. also don't read up about the plethora of devices that are out there, and will end up buying what they've seen advertised and promoted.

Banshee

 

[Janx]

good post of your experiences banshee..

One ponderance I have, is your colleagues seemed to have gotten less work out of their iPad than your android, and your relatives in some length of time determined that the Android does more.

That seems like the whole problem is Apps. Assuming your relative only had Thanksgiving day to play with it while they visited, they probably played with all your clever work related apps and compared that to the 3 versions of Angry Birds they installed on their iPad.

I'm being facetious, but the problem in both cases has more to do with app selection than the device itself.

I have at least 2 note taking apps on my iPad and a stylus. I still seem to prefer using a paper notebook (note, I don't really take notes, I jot down IP#'s, IDs, and diagrams I'm working out or explaining). If the note taking apps suck on iPad, it's because the dev hasn't stolen ideas from the Android's best of class note taking apps.

I'd be curious to know the apps Banshee uses on his Android, relative to the apps on his cow-erker's iPads. I almost bet the issue is user, not device. Banshee being more motivated to make use of his tablet (which might be an important factor, but iThings don't normally lack for enthusiasm).

 

[Banshee16]

good post of your experiences banshee..

One ponderance I have, is your colleagues seemed to have gotten less work out of their iPad than your android, and your relatives in some length of time determined that the Android does more.

That seems like the whole problem is Apps. Assuming your relative only had Thanksgiving day to play with it while they visited, they probably played with all your clever work related apps and compared that to the 3 versions of Angry Birds they installed on their iPad.

I'm being facetious, but the problem in both cases has more to do with app selection than the device itself.

I have at least 2 note taking apps on my iPad and a stylus. I still seem to prefer using a paper notebook (note, I don't really take notes, I jot down IP#'s, IDs, and diagrams I'm working out or explaining). If the note taking apps suck on iPad, it's because the dev hasn't stolen ideas from the Android's best of class note taking apps.

I'd be curious to know the apps Banshee uses on his Android, relative to the apps on his cow-erker's iPads. I almost bet the issue is user, not device. Banshee being more motivated to make use of his tablet (which might be an important factor, but iThings don't normally lack for enthusiasm).

Those are valid questions.

There's a difference between my partners and I, and then the other people I was referencing. We tend to be rather technical as we're partners in a web design/development company, whereas my relatives are not. One of them owns a programming/consulting company in Australia, and the others aren't in the computer industry at all.

So, with my partners, one of them uses his iPad largely for personal stuff. I rarely see him use it at work. He's a programmer, and fairly familiar with the technology. Has an iPhone 4 and the iPad 2. My other partner is more of a designer. He played around with note taking apps early on, and then stopped, and now uses a regular notepad. He *does* use his for wireframing websites, and there's a really cool app for doing that on the iPad. Nothing comparable on mine for doing that yet.....though there's one coming called Adobe Proto that I think will be released tomorrow. Aside from that, I believe he uses it for news reading, games for his kids, etc.

To be clear, they both use their device...just not as much for work.

With respect to my relatives, the one who owns a programming firm had an iPad right there, and everyone thought it was cool. When he looked at the Transformer, he thought it was pretty cool. He hadn't seen one down under yet. He pointed out it didn't render pages as quickly as the iPad 2 did, but the keyboard dock and ports would be very useful.

We had all attended a wedding the day before, and I had taken a bunch of photos on my SLR. They wanted copies of them, but didn't have a laptop or anything......so I was able to grab the USB cable from my camera bag, sit down with the Transformer and connect it to the camera, quickly pull all the photos down to the tablet, and then upload them to a photo sharing site via WiFi. Took a few minutes (mainly upload time, not actually getting things set up). It was easy peasy. I was also able to use the tablet that way to quickly show all the photos to the family. That went very well....at which point the kids wanted to grab the Transformer, and started playing Angry Birds etc. on it

I'm using a variety of apps on the tablet at the moment......I have been experimenting with a bunch, not knowing what's best, as I'm new to Android, whereas I've had an iPhone for a year, so I've got a bunch of duplicates loaded on at the moment.

Media
-MX Player
-VLC Player
-Mobo Player
-Rock Player Lite
-Netflix
-Doubletwist

Notetaking
-Springpad
-Evernote
-Supernote
-Sketchpad X

Games
-Dungeon Defenders (not a fan of the whole "tower defense" type game)
-Galaxy on Fire 2
-Angry Birds (3 different types....I think Rio and another one).
-Fruit Ninja (find it stupid, so I've since deleted it).

WiFi Analyzer (use this for help when figuring out WiFi coverage zones at office, and troubleshooting interference problems)


News Readers

Feedly
Pulse

Browsers

Dolphin Browser HD (lots of useful plugins)
Opera
Flash

ES File Manager (file manager for whole SSD, also lets me move files over WiFi, FTP into web servers, etc.)

I'm running a replacement launcher....ADW Launcher, I believe, that they thought was pretty cool, in terms of being able to change the interface.

There's a bunch of other stuff it'll run......programs to download from Torrents etc. but I don't use any of those.

I have a few book reader apps, few of whom work as nice as the ones on the iPad. Specifically, simple things like the page flipping animations don't seem to be included, even when I'm using an app that has a brother app on iOS that *does* do it.....but I know the programs *support* it.....as in, if I use the Kobo app or the Google Books app, or the ASUS Books app, I can get page flipping if I read an epub file I bought online....but if I read a PDF (like an RPG book I purchased from RPG Now), it doesn't support the page flipping animation.....but if I read the exact same file on iPad using Kobo (for instance), I *do* get the animations.

In general, points that were commented about as being positives were:

-detachable, portable keyboard that charges the tablet.
-long battery life (with the keyboard, I get 16-22 hours active use...not sleep time)
-USB ports and HDMI port (didn't use HDMI port)
-memory card support as we could easily move something to tablet on memory card, remove memory card, stick it into another computer and migrate files
-full file system access (the programmer liked this one)
-they liked that they could look at any website and not get "install Flash" prompts and big blank areas. My relative the programmer liked this. He understands what Flash is. My other relatives who aren't in the computer business just liked that they could see everything, without really understanding Flash vs. not Flash. This is less of an issue on major websites where they have big web budgets to reprogram stuff.....but for the 90% of websites out there that are launched by companies who *don't* have budgets allowing them to reprogram sites over and over, it helps.

There's a bunch of stuff it does that I haven't even really tried yet....DLNA streaming, replacement keyboards, Splashtop desktop control, I've barely touched the unlimited cloud storage, etc.

VPN connections work *much* better than on my iPhone. On my iPhone, the VPN connection fails 90% of the time....I have to try connecting over and over before it finally works. Same with my connection to Google apps. It routinely rejects my password, even when I type them into my notes so I can verify by sight that I've got them typed correctly, then I highlight the text, copy, then paste it into the password field for Google Apps. On the Transformer, those things are working 100% of the time.

So really, it depends on what you're doing with the device. As a laptop replacement, I find the Transformer works much better. Due to the better availability of apps, games etc. I think the iPad works better as an entertainment device.

My tablet has less variety of apps on it than my iPhone does....but then, I've had the iPhone longer, and, as I mentioned in an earlier post, several apps just make more sense to use on a phone than on a tablet (IMO). Regardless of the fact that I like the GPS and maps on my tablet *more*, the fact is I'd rather be carrying around a phone for mapping, rather than a 10 or 9 inch tablet. Similar for recording gas mileage, tracking miles driven for work, recording the location of my car and time left til my parking meter expires, recording receipts for expenses etc. etc. I *could* do all those on my tablet......but there's just no sense.

Another good example of use was last week. One of my partners and I drove to a client meeting out of the city. We used the iPhone to navigate, as the meeting was with a company in the country. On the way, I pulled out my tablet (he was driving), and as we drove, I logged into Google apps, had the tablet and keyboard sitting on my lap (very comfortable...much moreso than my 17" laptop), and as we drove by, I was rapidly pulling up the websites of companies whose offices or signs we saw on the side of the road, and adding them all into our online spreadsheet for following up and cold calling, and rapidly adding in notes from what I could see as we drove by their locations (signage needs updating, etc. etc.). All stuff we couldn't easily see by using the Yellow Pages. By the time we got back to our office after the meeting, I already had a new list of prospects to cold call.

Data input on the run is very easy that way. Yes, I could do it with a small netbook....but that'll be $300, and runs Windows, so it's slower...and doesn't include the touch screen etc.

Banshee

 

[JoeGKushner]

And I see Groupon has the 16 gb Toshiba Thrive for $299.

Pretty good deal considering the various inputs you can use on it and that you can replace your own battery on it.

 

[Janx]

Another good example of use was last week. One of my partners and I drove to a client meeting out of the city. We used the iPhone to navigate, as the meeting was with a company in the country. On the way, I pulled out my tablet (he was driving), and as we drove, I logged into Google apps, had the tablet and keyboard sitting on my lap (very comfortable...much moreso than my 17" laptop), and as we drove by, I was rapidly pulling up the websites of companies whose offices or signs we saw on the side of the road, and adding them all into our online spreadsheet for following up and cold calling, and rapidly adding in notes from what I could see as we drove by their locations (signage needs updating, etc. etc.). All stuff we couldn't easily see by using the Yellow Pages. By the time we got back to our office after the meeting, I already had a new list of prospects to cold call.

Data input on the run is very easy that way. Yes, I could do it with a small netbook....but that'll be $300, and runs Windows, so it's slower...and doesn't include the touch screen etc.

Banshee

Good write-up on the usage.

Still not sure that's a clear Android is better story. $70 buys an Apple bluetooth keyboard for an iPad. I wonder if having the keyboard right there made it obvious and thus won a fan (whereas, lacking iBoard, didn't make it obvious that it can do the same thing).

Not saying you're bashing one over the other. I just don't see a clear difference in actual capability from your story.

 

[rangerjohn]

Both iOS and Android fully support over-the-air app installation, and both support a variety of over-the-air syncing options. I'm not aware of any media transfer that requires a hardware sync.

Android supports over-the-air data backup and OS upgrades, both of which you'll likely see in iOS within a year or so (Apple is said to have avoided it so far due to the ability to lose data or even magically brick a phone in a situation where it's hard to restore, something that does cause some Android users trouble.)

The only reason I ever sync my iPad or my iPhone is for data backup and OS upgrades. If it weren't for that temporary need, both of my parents could easily and happily get by with just iPads. We're in the midst of a mighty transformation, I argue.

I argue against this with the following: screen size and an aging population.
I wouldn't buy a portable product now, either tablet or smart phone, because of screen size and interface size. I in my mid 40's now and have trouble using small devices. The problem will only increase, portable devices will get smaller and my vision worse. So while portable devices will sell, they will not replace the pc. Oh and vision aside, there are things I do on my pc I wouldn't feel comfortable doing on a portable device, like playing games and watching movies.

 

[Janx]

I argue against this with the following: screen size and an aging population.
I wouldn't buy a portable product now, either tablet or smart phone, because of screen size and interface size. I in my mid 40's now and have trouble using small devices. The problem will only increase, portable devices will get smaller and my vision worse. So while portable devices will sell, they will not replace the pc. Oh and vision aside, there are things I do on my pc I wouldn't feel comfortable doing on a portable device, like playing games and watching movies.

I disagree on the aging trend impacting the iThing trend.

It's certainly true that technology was trending to smaller and smaller.
And that old people have crappy eyesight.

But things aren't going to where screens are getting tinier.

According to legend, the worlds smallest cellphone came out right when the iPhone came out. It was basically just a cell phone. You probably never heard of it, because smaller for smaller sake was deemed useless by the populace when they saw the iPhone.

Parts are going to get smaller. But certain form factors are going to be preferred. Which means more smaller parts can be packed into the same form factor.

The result is, all smartphone screens are approximately the same size. Nobody is going to make a smartphone with a 1" screen. Instead, more pixels will be packed into the standard screen sizes, and more battery and hardware behind that to give you more horsepower.

The cellphone (smart or dumb), at this point, will stick to the sizes that fit nicely in your hand. What they do in that space will improve their capabilities.

Note, in Apple's iPad2, the screen is the same size. But it is a thinner device over all. less bulky. At this point, there's little reason to go thinner still, so as parts get smaller, the iPad3 will probably have the same form factor, but pack in more goodies into that space.

What this means for old people:
if you can't read an iPhone screen, you're still screwed.
If you can read an iPhone screen, don't worry, they will not be getting smaller.

This is the same reason the television in houses has a bigger screen than it was 10, 20, 30 years ago. We want to see. And as the technology gets smaller, it enables BIGGER screens in a practical fashion. Nobody wants a 1" TV set in their house because Sony makes one with tinier CRTs.

As the population ages, so does their technology acceptance curve. My mom had no clue about computers. Today's grandparents are online and sending emails. And many of them have iPhones, etc.

basically, in the 80's people who thought computers were mumbo jumbo were 50+ years old. Today, 50+ year olds were working with computers in the office in the 80's. Whereas the 50 year olds then were seeing it come in as a change.

I have no doubt that some technology will exist when I am 50 that I will think is totally stupid about how everybody's ga-ga over it. But I will be totally comfortable with the technology akin to what exists right now.

as a result, you're 40 now. You kinda don't like smart phones. In 10 years, you will be more accustomed to them. You might grumble about how you didn't need all this crap when you were a kid.

But in turn, your kid, when he turns 50, will not see the same problem with smartphones that you have. because to him, this stuff has existed his whole life.