Ah, but you cannot have it both ways. You cannot ignore DPR with one breath ("clarify that the numbers I was going by weren't accounting for whether attacks hit or missed ") and then say "but Rangers get Encounter powers" with the next.
Just to make this clear one more time - I wasn't ignoring DPR. I was using the base damage of the At-Wills because that seemed to be the numbers you were referring to. Hence why I acknowledged accuracy seperately.
So yes, when one considers the Encounter powers, Rangers do boost up their overall Encounter DPR more than when Thieves take into account Backstab. But that extra damage still doesn't catch up to the Thief until 7th level. At 3rd level, the Thief still averages more damage per encounter.
I'm doubtful. By 3rd level, the Ranger has probably acquired a magic weapon and weapon focus (both bonuses counting double for him.) Same goes for any other boosts he may have to damage from items. And he now has two encounter powers that are significantly more potent than backstab.
Skirmishing Stance is again, ~30 points of damage (4.5*6=27).
Guardian Arrow could be a lot more damage, especially against a solo, but if it is against an elite or a standard, it actually will often result in ~30 damage (or less) since the foe will go down before the entire encounter's number of rounds has passed.
Dailies give the capability to significantly boost damage in the course of a single fight. Measuring that out as DPR over the course of a day gives a false image of the real effect - reducing a tough fight by one or two rounds can be key. I'm not saying it singlehandedly overwhelms the Thief, but being able to use powers like this that sway single combats
is a solid advantage for classes with daily powers.
This is both illegal and mathematically incorrect.
First off, last I looked, a gouge is not a double weapon. It cannot be used with Twin Strike.
Yeah, you are entirely correct here, not sure what I was thinking.
So let's go with a Waraxe and figure out the proper numbers. I suspect you are ignoring the benefit of the ranger getting two attacks (and thus more chances to hit, more chances to use quarry, etc).
Dwarven Ranger: Str 20, Dex 13, Con 13, Wis 12. Dwarven Hammer Training. Waraxe. Let's assume that, as a melee character, he'll get CA often but not always, and treat this as ~+1 to hit. Let's assume an enemy AC of 16.
Twin Strike DPR: 14.915
[sblock]Twin Strike: +8 vs AC x 2: 1d12+2. +1d6 Quarry.
1/400 chance of both attacks critting: 34 damage.
24/400 chance of one attack critting and one hitting: 28.5 damage.
14/400 chance of one attack critting and one missing: 20 damage.
144/400 chance of both attacks hitting: 20.5 damage.
168/400 chance of one attack hitting and one missing: 12 damage.
49/400 chance of both attacks miss: 0 damage.
Two-Fanged Strike: Adds 5 damage per hit, plus 1 if both hit. DPR: 21.8375.
5 Round combat: 81.4975 damage.
Thief, 5 round combat: 86.75 damage.[/sblock]
So, with combat advantage half the time, the melee ranger is a bit behind the thief - though 5 damage over the course of an entire combat isn't much. At the cost, admittedly, of having lower defenses. Over the next few levels, as the dwarf gets more bonuses to damage, he starts to come out ahead.
[sblock]
Level 4 Dwarven Ranger: Dwarven Weapon Training, Axe Expertise, Weapon Focus, +1 Waraxes. Str 21, Dex 14, Wis 12.
Twin Strike DPR: 19.67875
Twin Strike vs AC 19: +12 vs AC x 2: 1d12(B1)+4. +1d6 Quarry.
1/400 chance of both attacks critting: 45 damage.
26/400 chance of one attack critting and one hitting: 36.5 damage.
12/400 chance of one attack critting and one missing: 25.5 damage.
169/400 chance of both attacks hitting: 25.5 damage.
156/400 chance of one attack hitting and one missing: 14.5 damage.
36/400 chance of both attacks miss: 0 damage.
Two-Fanged Strike: Adds 5 damage per hit, plus 1 if both hit. DPR: 27.16875.
Avenging Charge: Add 17.575 damage once per combat.
5 Round combat: 126.4575 damage.
Level 4 Rogue, Dex 21, Light Blade Expertise, Weapon Focus, Backstabber, +1 Short Sword.
Basic Attack: +15 vs AC: 1d6+10+2d8 = 19.6 DPR
Backstab DPR: +18 vs AC: 2d6+10+2d8 = 25.4 DPR
5 Round combat: 109.6 damage.
[/sblock]
By level 4, the dwarven ranger (whose AC is now only 2 below the thief) does nearly 27 more damage each encounter - not counting daily powers. Twin Strike is now ahead of the thief on its own, and encounters provide a bigger buff than Backstab. The advantage presented from doubling damage bonuses and the versatility of encounter powers outweighs the simple static bonuses of the thief.
Now, this
is with a very optimized character. The thief has the very key advantage of doing excellent damage without much need to invest in the ideal build. But that doesn't change the fact that other characters can present the same damage output - or higher - as the thief.
The thief has the brief advantage at level 1, mainly due to having one key damage boosting feat (backstabber) plus some early and effective class features. But it certainly doesn't take until late heroic or paragon for others to catch up.
Let's also check in with the scout, since you dismissed that as well.
Level 4 Scout
[sblock]Dex 20, Aspect of the Charging Ram/Lurking Spider, Spinning Axe Mastery, Axe Expertise, Double Axe Proficiency, Weapon Focus (Axe), +1 Double Axe. Let's assume he gets +1 to hit/+2 damage on the charge, and has CA for the follow-up attack. Assuming AC 19 for the enemy.
Charge Attack: +12 vs AC 19: 1d10(B1)+11.
On a hit, Dual Weapon Attack: +13 vs AC 19: 1d10(B1)+9.
1/20 chance of the first attack critting: 24.5 damage.
13/20 chance of the first attack hitting: 17 damage.
6/20 chance of the first attack missing: 0 damage.
If the first attack hit (14/20 chance), 1/20 chance of second attack critting: 22.5 damage.
If the first attack hit, 13/20 chance of second attack hitting: 15 damage.
If the first attack hit, 6/20 chance of second attack missing: 0 damage.
Average DPR: 19.8875
Twice per combat: Power Strike adds 5.5 damage.
5 round combat: 110.4375 damage.[/sblock]
Scout comes out on par with the thief by level 4. He doesn't always get his second attack, but gets it often enough that the damage bonuses definitely add up.
Your standard Rogue is also moving ahead of the thief by this point, due to encounter powers. The Slayer does come in behind the Thief, but has added durability. Same for the Barbarian - though multitarget powers and rages can push him higher. And for the Sorcerer, though his DPR is below the rogue if attacking one target, it only takes two targets to come out ahead, and that's not even acknowledging encounter and daily powers.
Like I said, I think the Thief is definitely a top-tier striker, and probably the easiest one to come optimized right out of the box. And, at level 1, does come out ahead of most strikers - though many builds are certainly in the same league. Claiming he kills an extra monster per combat than all other strikers
just isn't accurate.
And, just a few levels down the road, others begin to catch up. He remains competitive, especially at Paragon levels, but lacking daily powers and the versatility of chosen encounter powers... well, it definitely has an impact.
You claimed he is always ahead of other strikers, and especially so at 1st level. The truth is that he is ahead of other strikers at 1st level, and is even with them - or behind them - at later levels. Either way, he is never so far ahead as to be in another league entirely - the class has its own strengths and weaknesses, and while undeniably effective and easy to play, it certainly doesn't outclass everyone else on the level you have been suggesting.