This Weekend @ the Boxoffice: 2009.Jul.20

[Hand of Evil]

Harry! It is amazing how it has performed as a franchise!

Weekend Report: ‘Harry Potter’ Has Hot-Blooded Premiere
by Brandon Gray -- July 19, 2009

The remarkably popular Harry Potter franchise kept the cauldrons churning and then some with the release of its sixth installment, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, which drew an estimated $79.5 million on approximately 9,600 screens at 4,325 locations over the weekend. Compared to last year, though, when The Dark Knight blazed into the record books, overall weekend business was down a sharp 38 percent, and attendance was a bit soft versus the more normal weekends of years past, due in part to Harry Potter being the sole new nationwide release.

In its first five days, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince pulled in an estimated $159.7 million, surpassing predecessor Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix's $139.7 million as the franchise's highest-grossing five-day start and ranking sixth among all movies. The bulk of Half-Blood Prince's lead over Order of the Phoenix came from its $58.2 million opening day, while the rest of the days were slightly ahead. Order of the Phoenix's first weekend wasn't far behind at $77.1 million, and it ended its run at $292 million.

While one might yawn at another Harry Potter becoming a blockbuster, it is exceptional for a series that was a phenomenon from the start to be this consistently popular. This time out, audiences had the longest wait yet, two years, and still showed up in droves for what was essentially a continued build-up to a finale that author J.K. Rowling revealed two years ago. Distributor Warner Bros.' exit polling indicated that 60 percent of Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince's audience was 18 years of age and older and 57 percent was female.

Unlike Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince's opening did not include a significant IMAX release, because Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen still occupies those screens. Half-Blood Prince played at only three IMAX venues in Los Angeles, New York City and Chicago, which accounted for an estimated $338,000 of the five-day opening. The picture is scheduled for around 165 IMAX venues on July 29.

On the foreign front, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince delivered the highest-grossing foreign opening ever with an estimated $237 million from 54 territories. The previous benchmark was Spider-Man 3 with $230.5 million, while Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix began with $193 million from 44 territories. Add in the domestic gross, and Half-Blood Prince's five-day worldwide opening was $396.7 million, again topping Spider-Man 3, which came in at $381.7 million.

Another worldwide juggernaut, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, ranked second, both domestically and internationally. Domestically, the animated comedy-adventure unearthed an estimated $17.7 million and had the smallest third weekend drop of its franchise (36 percent). Its $152 million tally in 19 days nearly matched predecessor Ice Age: The Meltdown's gross through the same point. Overseas, Dawn of the Dinosaurs is on track to handily surpass The Meltdown's $456.6 million total. Its foreign weekend was an estimated $60.7 million, and it eclipsed Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen to become the top picture overseas of the year thus far with a mammoth $429 million

Back to the domestic weekend, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen dug up an estimated $13.8 million, and its total climbed to $363.9 million in 26 days, ranking 13th on the all time top grossing movies chart (and 88th adjusted for ticket price inflation). The action sequel's tally is running nearly 30 percent ahead of the first Transformers, and its fourth weekend percentage drop-off was about the same as its predecessor (43 percent).

Last weekend's No. 1 movie, Bruno, flamed out in its second weekend. After being sold as the outrageous follow-up to Borat, the comedy collapsed by 73 percent to an estimated $8.4 million, increasing its total to $49.6 million in ten days. In its second weekend, Borat expanded to nearly as many theaters as Bruno and made $28.3 million, and it had generated $67.1 million in ten days. However, perhaps portending a follow-up's potential, Borat itself didn't hang around that long after its first two weekends, winding up with $128.5 million.

While Bruno got bounced, the comedy break-out of the summer, The Hangover, was still in the mix with the slightest decline among nationwide releases, off 16 percent to an estimated $8.3 million. With $235.9 million in 45 days, it effectively matched the final tally of Wedding Crashers adjusted for ticket price inflation.

The Proposal also had a small drop, down 22 percent to an estimated $8.3 million. With $128.1 million in 31, days, the romantic comedy is now the highest-grossing picture that Sandra Bullock has appeared in, and it is on track to surpass the adjusted-for-ticket-price-inflation grosses of While You Were Sleeping and Miss Congeniality. The Proposal and The Hangover held so well that Public Enemies dipped below them with an estimated $7.6 million, lifting its haul to $79.5 million in 19 days. The crime drama hasn't exhibited much traction since its solid opening, and fell 45 percent this outing.

Also debuting, 500 Days of Summer had the biggest opening of the year so far among limited releases, collecting an estimated $838,000 at 27 sites, while The Hurt Locker continued to do decent limited business, packing an estimated $764,000 at 94 sites for a $2.2 million tally. It remains to be seen if these pictures can build into mainstream successes, but a modest year for specialty releases (in which Sunshine Cleaning ranks first with $12.1 million) might give the impression that they're more successful than they actually are.

 

[Mark]

There seem to be more juggernauts this Summer than people expected.


The commercials for 500 Days of Summer have me intrigued. I like both of the leads in their previous work and the premise looks fun but not frivolous.

 

[Hand of Evil]

There seem to be more juggernauts this Summer than people expected.


The commercials for 500 Days of Summer have me intrigued. I like both of the leads in their previous work and the premise looks fun but not frivolous.

Not sure on that, Labor day is the close of the season, only 7 weeks away and the number of movies are down over the same period.

 

[Mark]

Weren't people underestimating what Transformers and Potter would do? I'm not sure I even recall that many people expecting ST to do so well. Judging by what I recall the general feelings to have been, I do not remember any film getting an early nod as a definite big hit, except maybe for Ice Age.

 

[Hand of Evil]

Weren't people underestimating what Transformers and Potter would do? I'm not sure I even recall that many people expecting ST to do so well. Judging by what I recall the general feelings to have been, I do not remember any film getting an early nod as a definite big hit, except maybe for Ice Age.

Potter was in expectations, I personally thought it would have been a bit down, just because of the age of the franchise.

Transformers 2 had a great opening weekend but has leveled off along the lines of Transformers. I think the surprise was the first one doing as well as it did. (take out that extra 50 mill and they are in a dead heat)

Transformers 2007: Budget: 150 million
Domestic: $319,246,193 (45.1%) + Foreign: $389,026,399 (54.9%) = Worldwide: $708,272,592

Transformers 2009: Budget: 200 million
Domestic: $363,808,123 (47.8%) + Foreign: $396,632,356 (52.2%) = Worldwide: $760,440,479​

Star Trek and the Hangover have been the only movies of the season that has passed expectations. My feelings on why, because the Star Trek franchise had been run into the ground by bad management, expectations were low to begin with and the Hangover is just a well done funny movie.

2008 had 17 movies making over a 100 for the summer season, 6 over 50 but under 100. 3 were over 300 mill, Dark Knight was 500 domestic!

2009 has 11 movies making over a 100, 3 over 50 but under 100. Only 1 making over 300 domestic (Transformers 2).

2007 also had 17 movies over 100, out of those 7 over 200 and out of those 4 300 mill makers.

So, what failed this season? Number of seasonal movies down is about it.

 

[Mark]

I think the days of calling 100M the line between doing well and being a blockbuster passed a while back, considering how many have budget exceeding 100M these days (Hangover, aside). I'm wondering what those numbers for, say, the last five year (maybe ten) look like if you raise the bar to 200M or even a cool quarter million? Do many years in the last decade have more than one or two movies that reach those heights? How many of those movies that do exceed those figures have budgets less than 100M or more?

 

[Hand of Evil]

1995 - the average cost to make a movie was 36.4 million, there were 411 movies release to the big screen. A block buster movie had an opening weekend around 25 to 35 million. That year Waterworld was made for 175 million, Batman Forever budget was 100 million, opening weekend was 52 and take was Domestic: $184,031,112 (54.7%) + Foreign: $152,498,032 (45.3%) = Worldwide: $336,529,144

2000 - the average cost for a movie that year was 54.8 million, there were 478 movies released. Opening weekend for the top 10 of the year was 30 to 57 million. Mission Impossible 3 cost 125 to make, take Domestic: $215,409,889 (39.4%) + Foreign: $330,978,216 (60.6%) = Worldwide: $546,388,105

2003 - the average cost is at 63.8 million, there are 506 movies released. It is also the last year cost for most movies are released. Something to do with tax law changes and marketing of DVDs.

 

[Hand of Evil]

2008 -- Only 2 movies in the top 10 are made for less than 100 million

# 7 -- Twilight - Budget: 37 million - Domestic: $191,465,414 (50.1%) + Foreign: $190,667,886 (49.9%) = Worldwide: $382,133,300

#10 -- DR. SEUSS' HORTON HEARS A WHO! - Budget 85 million - Domestic: $154,529,439 (52.0%) + Foreign: $142,608,575 (48.0%) = Worldwide: $297,138,014​

2007 -- Only 2 movies in the top 10 are made for less than 100 million

# 9 -- Alvin & the Chipmonks - Budget 60 million - Domestic: $217,326,974 (60.3%) + Foreign: $143,251,670 (39.7%) = Worldwide: $360,578,644

#10 -- 300 - budget 65 million - Domestic: $210,614,939 (46.2%) + Foreign: $245,453,242 (53.8%) = Worldwide: $456,068,181​

2006 -- Only 2 movies in the top 10 are made for less than 100 million

#8 -- Ice Age: the Meltdown - budget: 80 miilion Domestic: $195,330,621 (30.0%) + Foreign: $456,568,661 (70.0%) = Worldwide: $651,899,282

#10 -- The Pursuit of Happyness - budget 55 million - Domestic: $163,566,459 (53.3%) + Foreign: $143,510,836 (46.7%) = Worldwide: $307,077,295​

2005 -- just 1 in the top 10 are made for less than 100 million

# 6 -- Wedding Crashers - budget 40 million - Domestic: $209,255,921 (73.4%) + Foreign: $75,920,820 (26.6%) = Worldwide: $285,176,741​

There is one in each of those years with a NA for budget.

 

[Hand of Evil]

If you project the cost from 2003 to current at an increase of 10 million a year, the average cost is just at 150 million. Think that is why you are seeing the foreign take listed, gobal. But then this is where those tax laws and DVD come into play too.

 

[Mark]

Amazing. Thanks for the added numbers. It sure seems like the expectations are for a lot more than 100M since most of the top ten require more than that to break even. And if you figure that they hope to turn that money around and make at least a few more films with it, then at 65M average per film, they need to make a great deal more than 200M. Any chance you could run some numbers on how little the bottom fifty films bring in compared to how much it costs to make them?