D&D Movie/TV Guess the D&D Movie Opening Weekend Box Office Performance, and Win a Prize!

[CleverNickName]

I stand by my strategy of pulling a number put of my posterior then type the keyboard after it. Wasn't that far off.

 

[OB1]

Well, dang, I was hoping we'd see a slight uptick from the Sunday estimate, but I guess the bad weather kept people in. Here's hoping for a great long run for the film over the next 8 weeks!

 

[overgeeked]

WE HAVE A WINNER!

Looks like the final numbers are in, and it's a huge upset! The box office estimates from yesterday were over $1M high, and both @fettpett and @UngeheuerLich have gone over! Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves has earned $37,205,784 for its Domestic Opening Weekend.

Congratulations to @LordEntrails, whose $36.1M bid came closest to the actual amount without going over.

@LordEntrails , I'll give it another 24 hours to make sure that all numbers are reporting and everything is copacetic, and then I'll reach out to you by private message with the gift code for your prize. Thanks for playing, everyone!

Source:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

www.boxofficemojo.com

Nice. I’m surprised I was that close. Maybe for any more of these there should be a $500,000 or $1 million buffer between guesses. That +$1 is kinda terrible.

 

[CleverNickName]

My prediction: $17,350,000

My prediction: $17,350,001

Tell me about it, @overgeeked.

For what it's worth: I've done a few of these over the years, and that +$1 trick has never won. Not even once, and not even close. So I guess it's a self-correcting problem.

 

[Zardnaar]

Nice. I’m surprised I was that close. Maybe for any more of these there should be a $500,000 or $1 million buffer between guesses. That +$1 is kinda terrible.

Once again I stand by my 8 figure strategy.

 

[Henadic Theologian]

It's usually double the movies production budget plus marketing. Then double it.

The exact % of box office returns varies by country and when. It's front loaded for studio earlier in movies run and domestic market. First 2-3 weeks are the critical time frame.

The double the cost of movie is roughly in the ballpark It's not exact.

If the box office is big enough or small enough it's mostly pointless.

No the rule is 2.5x Budget, not 2x Budget + Marketing x 2, because marketing is covered in the 2.5× budget. Some times depending marketing (Disney tends to spend alot of advertizing, although that's being heavily cut now) or where a movie is most popular (China government takes a big cut in mainland China), it could be 3x Budget, the extraordinary circumstances don't seem to apply here.

Also take into account most regions of the world give movies shot their absolutely huge tax credits as an insentive to shoot in their country/state/province/city, so movie budgets in practice are lower then they appear.

 

[Zardnaar]

No the rule is 2.5x Budget, not 2x Budget + Marketing x 2, because marketing is covered in the 2.5× budget. Some times depending marketing (Disney tends to spend alot of advertizing, although that's being heavily cut now) or where a movie is most popular (China government takes a big cut in mainland China), it could be 3x Budget, the extraordinary circumstances don't seem to apply here.

Also take into account most regions of the world give movies shot their absolutely huge tax credits as an insentive to shoot in their country/state/province/city, so movie budgets in practice are lower then they appear.

I went with the lower number because we don't have the marketing budget.

Otherwise I more or less agree with you. Ballpark figures are around 300 million as it's not clear if the 151 million figure includes marketing.

And I have seen variable figures on the movie budget before the 151 million figure and Chris Pines paycheck.

So some figures I've seen ate 400-450 million required to break even.

I can't source any of those figures it was from 2-3 months ago somewhere on the net don't recall where.

And on ENworld there's always eone who's gonna nitpick something eg it might turn out the 151 million includes marketing or the spent 50/75/100 million or whatever.

Hence why if the number was sufficiently large or small it's fairly clear cut one way or another. Under 270 or over 450 is fairly definitive regardless IMHO. 300 million is ballpark but domestic box office can be 60 or even 70% on opening hence 300 is kinda ballpark. Only the biggest movies can demand and get 70% though AFAIK 60% is typical sliding more towards the theatre later in the run. Domestically China they only get 25% apparently everywhere else is between thise two numbers.

 

[Henadic Theologian]

Well, dang, I was hoping we'd see a slight uptick from the Sunday estimate, but I guess the bad weather kept people in. Here's hoping for a great long run for the film over the next 8 weeks!

yeah certain parts of the US got slammed, bit that could lead to higher numbers later on.

 

[LordEntrails]

Congratulations to @LordEntrails, whose $36.1M bid came closest to the actual amount without going over.

@LordEntrails , I'll give it another 24 hours to make sure that all numbers are reporting and everything is copacetic, and then I'll reach out to you by private message with the gift code for your prize. Thanks for playing, everyone!

No way. Wow, no rush, I'm happy to wait for final numbers. As everyone else says, I never win these things!

 

[mamba]

Tell me about it, @overgeeked.

For what it's worth: I've done a few of these over the years, and that +$1 trick has never won. Not even once, and not even close. So I guess it's a self-correcting problem.

The problem is mostly that you would need to bet one dollar less to have a chance, not one more. I would have assumed that after a few attempts you would have noticed that