This Weekend @ The Boxoffice: 2011_Feb.07

Hand of Evil

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Epic
Nothing out that called me to the big screen this weekend.
Weekend Report: 'Roommate' Bunks on Top, 'Sanctum' Stuck in Cave
by Brandon Gray - February 6, 2011


Super Bowl weekend's top two movies explored the dark recesses of caves and dorm rooms, and one (The Roommate) saw the faint glimmer of the top spot, while the other (Sanctum) sank to new depths for a modern 3D action movie. Overall business continued to be rather miserable, off an estimated 21 percent from the same weekend last year, when Dear John led, marking the 13th down weekend in a row. It was also the least-attended Super Bowl weekend in 15 years.

The Roommate enrolled an estimated $15.6 million on approximately 2,800 screens at 2,534 locations, opening better than The Stepfather ($11.6 million). Among comparable Super Bowl weekend debuts, the psycho thriller's start was bigger than The Uninvited and The Eye but much smaller than When a Stranger Calls and Boogeyman, not to mention Dear John's $30.5 million last year. Roommate was extremely derivative of Single White Female (which had higher attendance) among other titles, but its message was clear and relatable to its target audience, who likely hadn't seen Single White Female. Distributor Sony Pictures' exit polling indicated that 65 percent of Roommate's audience was female and 61 percent was under 21 years old. Roommate also marked the eighth time since 2001 that a Sony release has topped Super Bowl weekend, following Dear John, Messengers in 2007, When a Stranger Calls in 2006, Boogeyman in 2005, You Got Served in 2004, Darkness Falls in 2003 and The Wedding Planner in 2001.

With 84 percent of its gross coming from 3D presentations (including 17 percent from 178 IMAX 3D venues), Sanctum unearthed an estimated $9.2 million on around 3,300 screens at 2,787 locations, which was less than Piranha 3D's $10.1 million start but better than Pandorum. Only Alpha and Omega and My Soul to Take had lower-grossing debuts among broadly-released, modern 3D fare. Among spelunking thrillers, Sanctum grossed more than The Descent and The Cave, though its attendance was less than either one, and its opening was below par for survival thrillers in general (including Open Water). Sanctum's marketing pitched the 3D action and James Cameron's involvement (including an on-camera interview in some ads), but flunked on the fundamentals, avoiding the movie's premise and characters, let alone showing compelling ones. Distributor Universal Pictures' research showed that 53 percent of Sanctum's audience was female and 65 percent was aged 30 years and older.

No Strings Attached lingered in third place, holding up well again and continuing to track similarly to What Happens in Vegas (albeit with lower attendance). Off 37 percent from last weekend, No Strings made an estimated $8.4 million, lifting its tally to $51.8 million in 17 days. It became Natalie Portman's third lead role to cross the $50 million mark, following V for Vendetta and Black Swan, and it's the sixth Ashton Kutcher vehicle to reach that milestone.

Down 25 percent, The King's Speech stood its ground again, earning an estimated $8.3 million for an $84.1 million sum in 73 days. Fellow Oscar contenders Black Swan and The Fighter were still in the mix as well. Swan fell 34 percent to an estimated $3.4 million for a $95.9 million total in 66 days, while Fighter dipped 27 percent to an estimated $2.9 million for an $82.5 million tally in 59 days. True Grit retreated 37 percent to an estimated $4.8 million, upping its bounty to $155 million in 47 days.

The Rite took the most severe hit among nationwide releases, plummeting 62 percent to an estimated $5.6 million for a $23.7 million sum in ten days. Huge drop-offs are the norm for its genre. Fellow second-weekend release, The Mechanic, slowed a Statham standard 53 percent to an estimated $5.4 million for a $20.1 million total in ten days. The Green Hornet was higher than both in its third weekend, down 46 percent to an estimated $6.1 million. With an $87.2 million tally in 24 days, it's a hair below Pineapple Express's final gross.

The studios generally predicted that the Super Bowl will lead to 60-72 percent drops from Saturday to Sunday. 72 percent was the extreme last year, and Universal projected that Sanctum will see such a fall from Saturday, while Sony projected a 66 percent slide for The Roommate, which would match Dear John's decline last year. The Weinstein Company, though, was bullish on The King's Speech, expecting it to slip only 50 percent on Sunday. Actual results will be reported here Monday afternoon.
 
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January Attendance Was a 20-Year Low
by Brandon Gray --- February 8, 2011

The January box office tallied $754 million, which paled compared to January 2010's record $1.06 billion gross. The January-to-January drop was the steepest on the books at 29 percent, and the gross was the lowest since 2007.

In terms of estimated attendance, January 2011 posted a 20-year low, and not by some slim margin. The month's ticket sales were optimistically estimated at 94 million, and one has to go back to 1995 to find another sub-100-million January.

January's anemic business was a by-product of 2010's whimpering end, but it was also due to the lowest number of new nationwide releases since 1995: there were only nine, compared to an average of 14 per January over the previous 15 years. When the movies aren't broadly appealing or aren't even there, business suffers.

For the first time in decades, the top-grossing movie in January was one originally released in January: The Green Hornet led the month with $79.1 million. The month is usually topped by a holdover from the previous year, and True Grit came close to keeping the streak alive with $78.4 million. Little Fockers was third with $60.3 million, while The King's Speech ($55.4 million) and Black Swan ($50.3 million) rounded out the Top Five.

Individually, Green Hornet fared well for a superhero comedy, while True Grit, The King's Speech and Black Swan were gangbusters for their respective genres (all seemingly enhanced by the lack of competition for screens and attention), but, collectively, their appeal was inherently limited. Hollywood failed to deliver the broadly-appealing entertainments that keep overall business booming. An extreme example of the industry scoring on this front was last January, when Avatar dominated with $312.1 million, followed by Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel.
 


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