The difference is I don't see that book coming. I'd like a 5.5e. I'd like some new classes and classrevisions. I'd like some genre specific monsters, traps, and items. I'd like some dives into new setting fluff and crunch.
I just don't see them coming based on how TCOE was scructured and Ravenloft being an old setting.
We'll continue to see new settings, as we have over the last few years with Ravnica, Theros, and Wildemount. By "new" I mean to D&D, which in my mind counts as new.
And yeah, we differ on 2024. I think we'll see revised core rulebooks, somewhere in the 5.3 to 5.5 range. They'll look to make them backwards compatible--so no major structural changes--but with more options and revamped classes and races. I mean, why wouldn't they?
But as for new classes, I think it is clear that 5E is expanding class options not through new classes, but through endless sub-classes. I don't think that will change. Classes are the archetypes and subclasses represent variations on the archetype. It works fine, I think, for providing a wide number of options.
I watch sports. Just because you are fine now doesn't mean you lack flaws that can pull you down in a few years.
Sure, but I think the reason you're getting a lot of pushback about this is that you're seeing flaws which most don't see, or if they do, don't see them as problematic as you do.
Also, as far as sports is concerned, most players decline slowly. The Albert Pujols' of the world are the exception. And, in hindsight, you can look back and see signs that decline is imminent. Do we see any such signs now? I don't.
The biggest problems WotC have, as I see it, are:
1) What to do with their success? The temptation is to try to keep on expanding--that is the way of capitalism, after all--but sometimes it isn't such a good thing. Will they over-extend themselves? And related to this, how will extending into film and tv impact the game?
2) The ongoing culture war around tradition vs. identity politics/social theory. I think this relates to Tasha, at least as far as certain aspects of what is presented (e.g. race/heritage). How far will WotC go in trying to please those that want certain changes, and what will the cost be?
The first is a good problem to have. To use a sports analogy, it is like having too many good starting pitchers. The second is tied into larger socio-cultural issues, and will likely be tied to however our culture continues to morph. I'm also not convinced it isn't mostly a problem among a small group of people on the internet.
But the point being, I don't think "too little or bad crunch" is one of their biggest problems.