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D&D 5E Volo's 5e vs Tasha's 5e where do you see 5e heading?

ph0rk

Friendship is Magic, and Magic is Heresy.
They probably have a margin of error involved,
The only method of calculating this without population level data requires assuming your sample is unbiased and subbing in your sample standard deviation to calculate a standard error.

That assumption is entirely wrong.

but they have quite extensive market research at their disposal through Hasbro.

Not even Hasbro can (or will) field a full census of all players of 5e.
 

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Parmandur

Legend
The only method of calculating this without population level data requires assuming your sample is unbiased and subbing in your sample standard deviation to calculate a standard error.

That assumption is entirely wrong.



Not even Hasbro can (or will) field a full census of all players of 5e.
They don't need a full census to get actionable data.
 


Parmandur

Legend
They need a sampling frame to get unbiased estimates.

They can act on biased estimates, but that has risks which should be obvious.

At any rate, without unbiased data, we can't trust anything they say about who does or does not use feats.
Inconvenient facts might not be attractive to you, but that doesn't change that most people are not using Feats.
 

When D&D Beyond looks at this data, they only include characters that have been updated (granted, I can't remember how many times).
Source? I've repeatedly suggested this should be done but it definitely was the case in any figures I saw, hence the suggestion. If they've changed that, great, but without a source I 100% do not believe it.
@Minigiant's list of game changes are on a whole other level from adding a couple of dozen feats, wouldn't you agree?
Haven't seen them, don't know.
So, no, it's not "impossible to say" if the characters have been played or not.
Source. This definitely was not the case in any of the earlier data dumps. If this is correct there was a more recent one I missed with a new strategy.
 

Inconvenient facts might not be attractive to you, but that doesn't change that most people are not using Feats.
As noted, we don't have any evidence that this is a "fact". That people keep repeating it is, frankly, demonstrative of so much of what is wrong with the world. The inability to distinguish belief from fact, even by intelligent people, is a big problem.

So far we have two unsourced unsubstantiated claims. One from you, one from Hussar. You've claimed Crawford has claimed that most people don't use Feats, alluded to it being in a video somewhere, and given out a 30% figure. I'm certainly willing to believe only 30% of characters have a Feat once we take a lot of things into account (i.e. that most characters are under L10 being the main factor), but it's unsourced. Much more extreme is Hussar's claim which is that DNDBeyond suddenly changed the methodology of their data dumps and according to Hussar are now only including characters who have had XP added to their character sheets (presumably and/or been levelled up manually). It's entirely possible that's true. But it's an unsourced claim at this point and Google ain't turning up nothing on it. I can only find earlier stuff where that wasn't the case.
 

Parmandur

Legend
Source? I've repeatedly suggested this should be done but it definitely was the case in any figures I saw, hence the suggestion. If they've changed that, great, but without a source I 100% do not believe it.

Haven't seen them, don't know.

Source. This definitely was not the case in any of the earlier data dumps. If this is correct there was a more recent one I missed with a new strategy.
Adam repeatedly detailed, on these forums even, how they filtered the results based on a few factors to include only actively played characters. He never fully detailed their filtering strategy, probably because some of their algorithms are proprietary information. But they were always filtered numbers, not raw umber including tesr characters.
 

Adam repeatedly detailed, on these forums even, how they filtered the results based on a few factors to include only actively played characters. He never fully detailed their filtering strategy, probably because some of their algorithms are proprietary information. But they were always filtered numbers, not raw umber including tesr characters.
When, where? Source or it didn't happen, frankly.

I've only seen figures which were not filtered in that way. They certainly weren't "always" filtered this way because the early figures were specifically criticised for being unfiltered. I remember some slightly later ones which had some laughable filtering on them, but it wasn't filtering for actively-played characters. If you just keep posting unsourced claims and saying "FACTS!!!!" (esp. "inconvenient facts" like you're goddamn Al Gore lol) you're just proving my point.
 

Parmandur

Legend
As noted, we don't have any evidence that this is a "fact". That people keep repeating it is, frankly, demonstrative of so much of what is wrong with the world. The inability to distinguish belief from fact, even by intelligent people, is a big problem.

So far we have two unsourced unsubstantiated claims. One from you, one from Hussar. You've claimed Crawford has claimed that most people don't use Feats, alluded to it being in a video somewhere, and given out a 30% figure. I'm certainly willing to believe only 30% of characters have a Feat once we take a lot of things into account (i.e. that most characters are under L10 being the main factor), but it's unsourced. Much more extreme is Hussar's claim which is that DNDBeyond suddenly changed the methodology of their data dumps and according to Hussar are now only including characters who have had XP added to their character sheets (presumably and/or been levelled up manually). It's entirely possible that's true. But it's an unsourced claim at this point and Google ain't turning up nothing on it. I can only find earlier stuff where that wasn't the case.
There is no new change, Beyond's data is always filtered to only show characters actually seeing use in play, per Adam in all of of relevant videos.

 

Parmandur

Legend
When, where? Source or it didn't happen, frankly.

I've only seen figures which were not filtered in that way. They certainly weren't "always" filtered this way because the early figures were specifically criticised for being unfiltered. I remember some slightly later ones which had some laughable filtering on them, but it wasn't filtering for actively-played characters.
One of the videos with the filtered data was cited earlier in this thread. Adam repeatedly detailed in comments for these videos that they were only counting characters that showed signs of being used.
 

There is no new change, Beyond's data is always filtered to only show characters actually seeing use in play, per Adam in all of of relevant videos.
Source.

You've not linked a video, you've linked a tweet with no video attached. Don't know if you just messed.

Crawford's first claim is just what we both agree - most characters don't have Feats. That's not the same as "most players don't use Feats", which is what you seemed to be saying. He does then say players, but that doesn't match up with his prior statement.
One of the videos with the filtered data was cited earlier in this thread. Adam repeatedly detailed in comments for these videos that they were only counting characters that showed signs of being used.
Where? 36 pages mate, so to me that's just another unsourced claim.
 

Parmandur

Legend
Source.

You've not linked a video, you've linked a tweet with no video attached. Don't know if you just messed.

Crawford's first claim is just what we both agree - most characters don't have Feats. That's not the same as "most players don't use Feats", which is what you seemed to be saying. He does then say players, but that doesn't match up with his prior statement.

Where? 36 pages mate, so to me that's just another unsourced claim.
Players = characters. It's the same difference.

Look, man, @BadEye explained as much of the methodology as he could on these boards even, I'm not going to do your homework for you. Beyond was always filtering for active characters.
 

Players = characters. It's the same difference.
Nope. That's absolutely not true. That's not a fact, and claiming it as such is beyond disingenuous.
Look, man, @BadEye explained as much of the methodology as he could on these boards even, I'm not going to do your homework for you. Beyond was always filtering for active characters.
You've made five or six unsourced claims now. You are the one making the claim of fact. Either stop saying it's a fact, or don't try and push off proving your claims on to others. This outright shoddy behaviour on your part frankly, at this point. I've already "done my homework" and come up blank on what you're claiming is present.
 

Parmandur

Legend
Nope. That's absolutely not true. That's not a fact, and claiming it as such is beyond disingenuous.

You've made five or six unsourced claims now. You are the one making the claim of fact. Either stop saying it's a fact, or don't try and push off proving your claims on to others. This outright shoddy behaviour on your part frankly, at this point. I've already "done my homework" and come up blank on what you're claiming is present.
Look, Adam Bradford discussed the topic a lot on these forums, but I found the following representative quote:

We have previously shared that there is no foolproof way to guarantee that any of these characters are being actively played, but take reasonable steps to filter the data the best that we can. For instance, we look at characters that have leveled up on different days and have adjusted hit points in the past and taken short or long rests, etc.

And we have far more than 30 million characters. The 30 million number is filtered down to what we reasonably call "active."
So, yes, it's not foolproof, but the data is filtered for active characters.
 

Look, Adam Bradford discussed the topic a lot on these forums, but I found the following representative quote:


So, yes, it's not foolproof, but the data is filtered for active characters.
That's helpful, thank you, that's what I was looking for. I know they shared data before this they started doing this (the 538 figures were from 2017 for example had their limiting parameters outlined - it was merely "created between Aug 15 and Sept 15 2017") because it was an early criticism, but at some point by December 2019 they'd started trying at least.

It's a real pity they don't have like an API where we could get anonymized data about characters but I suppose someone would abuse it someone.
 

Parmandur

Legend
That's helpful, thank you, that's what I was looking for. I know they shared data before this they started doing this (the 538 figures were from 2017 for example had their limiting parameters outlined - it was merely "created between Aug 15 and Sept 15 2017") because it was an early criticism, but at some point by December 2019 they'd started trying at least.

It's a real pity they don't have like an API where we could get anonymized data about characters but I suppose someone would abuse it someone.
It was pretty cool of them to share as much as they have, honestly.
 

Minigiant

Legend
Supporter
I don't get the Feat talk.

Almost everyone increases their Primary Ability Score to 20 before thinking about doing anything else. And for most campaigns, as WOTC states, never make it to a level where characters get to take a feat.

DnDBeyond stated that most campaigns end around level 9-11. The is before a character will a 15 or lewer in their primary score getss to increase it to 20 and has a chance to increase another score or take a feat.

This is why free feats is a popular houserule.
This is why Martial Adept and Fighting Initiate are flops.
 

Parmandur

Legend
I don't get the Feat talk.

Almost everyone increases their Primary Ability Score to 20 before thinking about doing anything else. And for most campaigns, as WOTC states, never make it to a level where characters get to take a feat.

DnDBeyond stated that most campaigns end around level 9-11. The is before a character will a 15 or lewer in their primary score getss to increase it to 20 and has a chance to increase another score or take a feat.

This is why free feats is a popular houserule.
This is why Martial Adept and Fighting Initiate are flops.
The point is to show how WotC operates when there is significant minority niche., as an exemplar.
 



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