We're Finally Mainstream! Now What?

ICv2's recent announcement that hobby games have become "mainstream" heralds a new age for role-playing games. How did this happen and why should gamers care?

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[h=3]How Did We Get Here?[/h]Role-playing games have steadily been increasing in popularity and media attention. Several factors are likely at play, ranging from older players returning to the hobby (as evidenced by the Old School Renaissance ), to an increased media awareness of role-playing games (Stranger Things being one example), to a wave of nostalgia as 40-somethings now have enough buying power to introduce their kids to the hobby.

The rise of video and podcasting has also introduced gaming to a much larger population on the Internet. Conventions are more popular than ever before -- to the point that they have difficulty keeping up with the demand. Wizards of the Coast has released a new Open Game License and a distribution platform via DM's Guild. It helps that Dungeons & Dragons has also broadened its audience, with millennials (ages 25 to 34) the largest group, followed closely ages 35 to 44 and 18 to 24 — 30% of which are female.
[h=3]Six Million an Hour?[/h]According to WOTC, six million people are playing D&D at any given hour. UPDATE: I asked Nathan Stewart to clarify this number. This was his response:

There was more context given, wasn't supposed to mean every hour, but yes the aggregate was videogames/boardgames/TRPG (not novels)
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The "per hour" seems to be egregious, and is inclusive of D&D-branded video games and board games. Ethan Gilsdorf, author of Fantasy Freaks and Gaming Geeks, said :

For those in the know, for those who follow popular culture, the game has gained a kind of legendary status. It's almost like a badge of honor. People who used to play D&D in the 70s, 80s, and 90s are now reaping the benefits.
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The data backs up the RPG renaissance, as per ICv2:

The number of people playing hobby games, the number of people shopping at game stores, the number of stores, and exposure of hobby games at major retailers were all up in 2016, reflecting the now-mainstream nature of the hobby.
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Mike Mearls, senior manager of D&D research and design, confirmed ICv2's findings:

We're seeing a bigger audience than we've seen in a very long time—in decades. It's so easy to cast this idea that technology will be the death of D&D, but it's been really interesting to see how that has been absolutely incorrect.
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[h=3]Will the Bubble Burst?[/h]Rob Salkowitz at ICv2 predicts that mainstream geek culture will affect other industries, as they take notes on what works for geek fans and apply it to other forms of fandom like sports :

It’s been clear for a while that the fan convention template that we’ve known since the 1960s is fraying at the edges as geek culture becomes mainstream consumer culture. On one hand, this means outside players who smell the money are making their play for the fan audience, with increasingly mixed results. But on the other, it means that longtime convention organizers within the space are looking to push their shows into neighboring territory.
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Salkowitz calls this "peak geek" and it has consequences beyond geek circles:

The danger is that, even with a fresh infusion of smart nerds in strategic spots, mainstream media is still more liable than their niche counterparts to credit know-nothings on an equal basis with informed sources, misinterpret nuances, impose faulty narrative frameworks and just plain get stuff wrong when it comes to covering the business of pop culture--especially if they are taking their cues from some of the more excitable fever swamps of online fandom. The result is a much more treacherous environment for the big companies and big name creators unaccustomed to attention from these quarters.
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For tabletop games, the primary concern is that eight straight years of growth is unsustainable:

For 2017, there’s widespread concern that the number of releases is going to be greater than the market can support. "I think we're facing some challenges coming into the new year, just on the basis of the breadth of releases," one distributor told us.
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But for the moment, things have never looked better for gaming. As more and more media launches -- from videos to streaming to podcasts to television shows to movies -- geek culture will become so normalized that it may well lose some of its identity. Chris Perkins, principal D&D designer, summed up the current state of affairs:

Geek culture and nerd culture is now just culture.
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Whether or not that is a good or bad thing will be determined by us.

Mike "Talien" Tresca is a freelance game columnist, author, communicator, and a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to http://amazon.com. You can follow him at Patreon.

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[Mercule]

But what about an NFL video game? Madden or whatever....

I think you just won the analogy race. That's spot on.

 

[Mercule]

And here's the official answer from Nathan:

I tweaked the article to include the quote.

Thanks for reaching out (and answering, if Nathan is reading).

That definitely takes it out of the "falsification" realm I threw out, earlier. I still think those books are somewhat cooked, but it's at least in the realm that I expect from marketers and somewhere below politicians and crossroads demons.

 

[mcosgrave]

I don't know if bubbles will pop, but now that we're mainstream, I do see some interesting things happening. In the hobby, I've seen cons (in Ireland, where I live) where many of the RPG sessions are homebrew systems, often quite light on mechanics but narrative driven. I've heard this remarked on on US podcasts, so I'm guessing it's no uncommon.
Obviously, it's also now much easier to craft a nice PDF and sell 30,40,50 copies of your home brew system or supplement: the Internet has made it a lot easier to share and find interesting stuff; in a way that was impossible 25 years ago. WoTC might see sales of the core books fall off, sometime, but it may be that the next bubble (even the current bubble) is cottage industry self publishing.
Parallel to TRPG, I've seen a remarkable resurgence of storytelling: a few years back, my local brewpub started having a storyteller in one night a week; then the pub down the street picked up on it, then I heard about a story night in another town, and now I can find 3-4 storytelling sessions every week, if I'm wanted. It's not RPG, but it is folk sitting around listening to stories being told by a real person: not a big leap to TRPG from that.
And then there are the board game cafes, which provide public social gaming. I think the social aspect is big; I think a big part of "mainstream" is how social gaming, whether it's TRPG, boardgames, whatever, is now a common way of socialising.
So even if the 'bubble' pops, and WoTC stop selling hardbacks, I think the world is different now, no putting the genie back in the bottle : although I'm sure there's a spell for that!

 

[shamurai7]

Well......time for a new hobby.

 

[aramis erak]

I think Mr. Tresca is, and/or his sources are, delusional. At least, if he believes and/or they believe what he's stating above. Why? D&D is NOT mainstream in any way. And the tabletop is FAR from mainstream.

Most of the college kids don't know a thing about it. Most of the adults don't know anything about it. 6 million players isn't even 2% of the US, let alone of the nearly a billion people world wide who use English as either their primary or their secondary daily language.

Even if we allow for 6 million at any given point, with an average of 3 hour sessions, that's 48 million people worldwide.... not even 1% of the English speaking world.

Yes, D&D is in a renaissance.
Yes, the hobby boardgame industry is in a major renaissance.

But the numbers are still small potatoes in terms of the mainstream.

 

[Shasarak]

My criteria for being mainstream is if I can wander into a mainstream bookshop and find the latest book there waiting for me.

So nope unfortunately not mainstream yet.

 

[PMárk]

My criteria for being mainstream is if I can wander into a mainstream bookshop and find the latest book there waiting for me.

So nope unfortunately not mainstream yet.

Oh, the good 'ol mid/late-2000s, when I could do that and find all the 3e and Masquerade books in major bookshop lines and in Hungarian (or at least the ones which came out in my language, but still)!

 

[Henry]

We never should've dumped THAC0 - that let the riff-raff in.

I'm just glad to see the explosion of people over the past twenty years who don't need a giant leap of intuition to understand the concept of a role-playing game any more. Anyone who can understand Skyrim, or Pokemon Go, or Galaxy of Heroes don't have to go very far for me to explain how RPGs work and the simple jump from "managing a stable of characters with stats and ability increases" to "controlling one person, and adding a personality to that person." Heck, break out Runequest and a Skyrim player might feel right at home.

 

[Shasarak]

Oh, the good 'ol mid/late-2000s, when I could do that and find all the 3e and Masquerade books in major bookshop lines and in Hungarian (or at least the ones which came out in my language, but still)!

You need to get some Hungarian translation company on to Gale Force 9, stat!

We never should've dumped THAC0 - that let the riff-raff in.

I'm just glad to see the explosion of people over the past twenty years who don't need a giant leap of intuition to understand the concept of a role-playing game any more. Anyone who can understand Skyrim, or Pokemon Go, or Galaxy of Heroes don't have to go very far for me to explain how RPGs work and the simple jump from "managing a stable of characters with stats and ability increases" to "controlling one person, and adding a personality to that person." Heck, break out Runequest and a Skyrim player might feel right at home.

I am sorry man, but since when is Pokemon Go a RPG or actually anything like a RPG?

 

[Henry]

I am sorry man, but since when is Pokemon Go a RPG or actually anything like a RPG?

The characters have stats, these stats progress over time, you actually Level, just like many CRPGs, and you actually have to put time and effort into improving these stats, even moreso in some ways than a pen and paper TRPG. (When was the last time D&D actually made you physically travel to gain a level?)

Though I don't play it myself, I've seen Pokemon Go participants actually get quite attached to their creatures, and it's mandatory to join a faction, and what you do reflects on your faction, encapsulating one of several actual social elements in the game. I've spoken with enough players of it to realize that though it's not an RPG, but it shares many RPG elements, enough so that a person who enjoys playing P-Go who wouldn't otherwise think twice about D&D would more readily see similarities and give it a try.