What are the odds?

[Dimwhit]

I apologize in advance for the juvenile question. I also don't know if this is the place to post this. If not, I suposed it will be moved to the right place.

Anyway, for you math geniuses out there, what are the actual odds of rolling 3 20's in a row (I'm an English major)? It just happened last night (at the most opportune time you could imagine), and I was curious as to just how unlikely it was.

 

[hong]

100%. (Some pedantic math geeks may say that the technical answer of 3 20's in a row is (1/20)^3, which is 1 in 8,000, but that's neither here nor there.)

Why? Given enough time, and enough die rolls, the chance of rolling some unspecified combination of numbers that looks "interesting" is certain. You rolled 3 20's in a row, but it could just as easily have been 3 1's in a row, or three critical hits in a row, or three failed saves in a row, and so on. Similarly, you may be the one who got this result, but it could just as easily have been the guy next to you, or the guy you talked to yesterday, or even any of the other people on this board. Because of this, the probabilities that are relevant to the question can't be computed.

It's like the lottery: the chances of any _one_ person winning the lottery are tiny, but eventually, _someone_ will win. You just happened to be the lucky person this time.

 

[ùìéè äîáåê]

yes but

As a mathematics pedantic D ) I must insist that the chance of anyone throwing three 20's in a row in any three (aprticular) rolls is still (1/20)^3 x 100 = 0.0125 %
(Notice he does have the same chance to roll three 1's, or to roll the said 20's in any SPECIFIC, but not consequetive, rolls, and so on)

 

[Dagger75]

What is all your peoples fascination with the chance to roll this and that.

The chances of rolling 3 20's in a row is the same as rolling 3 1's, 3 5's, 3 18's, a 5 a 12 a 14 (in that order).

 

[Dimwhit]

People sure are sensitive around here. I was curious because we had a guy do it last night. 5 out of 6 people were dropped, he was about to die, and he rolled 3 20's in a row to take the opponent down before it was over for all of us. It was amazing timing, and I was just curious as to what the odds were that it happened. I do realize it's the same as rolling 3 of any other number. I, myself, rolled a triple fumble a few weeks back. But my fascination was with the timing from our last battle.

But thanks for the comments. And thanks for the answer, too.

 

[Bob5th]

3 20's in a row. That all. I've seen 3 100"s in a row before.

 

[Varius]

20 20 20



now you have all seen 3 20's in a row

 

[Henry]

Don't let cynics get to you, Dimwhit. (That sounds really funny calling someone that.)

As was said, the formula is 1/((die size)^(number of consecutive rolls)).

 

[Tewligan]

People sure are sensitive around here.

Uh, excuse me? It never ceases to amaze me how people apparently have no problem just wandering onto these boards and blanketing the place with insults and gross generalizations. Y'know, when you ask a question and then start blasting people who are kind enough to take the time to answer you, I don't think it's going to make people more inclined to help you in the future. The next time you feel the urge to write something like this, I for one would appreciate it if you would pause to ask yourself if this is something that people are going to look kindly on. A little common courtesy goes a long way, Dimwhit. Thank you.

Sensitive, indeed...

(Drumroll, sting)

 

[Breakstone]

Okay, how about the chances of this?

I'm sittin' on the couch, watching TV, and eatin' Teddy Grams. I pull out a Teddy and examine it, noticing that there are four different kinds of Teddies. So I eat this first Teddy, and pull out another. Same kind. Pull out another. Same kind. Five more teddies, all the same. The next is different, but I've pulled out 8 Teddies that were the same.

What are the chances of that?