What are the odds?

[Mantra]

quote:
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Originally posted by Dimwhit
People sure are sensitive around here.
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Uh, excuse me? It never ceases to amaze me how people apparently have no problem just wandering onto these boards and blanketing the place with insults and gross generalizations. Y'know, when you ask a question and then start blasting people who are kind enough to take the time to answer you, I don't think it's going to make people more inclined to help you in the future. The next time you feel the urge to write something like this, I for one would appreciate it if you would pause to ask yourself if this is something that people are going to look kindly on. A little common courtesy goes a long way, Dimwhit. Thank you.

Sensitive, indeed...

(Drumroll, sting)

You are totally correct Dimwhit

 

[Lazybones]

I thought Dimwhit's comment was appropriate given the replies he'd gotten, and not overtly hostile. Your response Tewligan, however, seemed mean-spirited.

Just my opinion. Disregard as you see fit.

LB

 

[Ruvion]

Wow...

I wish I had luck that good...I've seen a guy (our DM at the time) roll 5 consecutive 20's during a 1.5th D&D combat scene (1.5 due to our houserules mish-meshing 1st and 2nd edition rules)...that was also a game turning moment, as it resulted in most of the party dead (we use a house Greave system you see).

 

[Mark]

I thought Dimwhit's comment was appropriate given the replies he'd gotten, and not overtly hostile. Your response Tewligan, however, seemed mean-spirited.

Just my opinion. Disregard as you see fit.

LB

Heh heh

The (Drumroll, sting) was his way of saying he was kidding. He was, in fact, being ironic.

 

[Numion]

Given enough time, and enough die rolls, the chance of rolling some unspecified combination of numbers that looks "interesting" is certain.

Given infinite die rolls the chance of rolling certain numbers is, well, certain. Not enough die rolls. Infinite die rolls. There is a small chance that no one will ever, in the rest of humanitys remaining time, roll again three 20's in a row. Very small chance.

Also, which is more likely: rolling a sequence of

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

or

12 3 6 19 15 16 6 11 1 18

?



Also when almost any group has a player that rolls 'better' than others, it's just a common psychological thinking pattern in action. People tend to disregard perceptions that go against their prior opinion, and give more weight to perceptions that strengthen their pre-made opinions. So if one rolls wells for a while, it's easy to uphold the status of a 'lucky bastard' from there. If one should statistically analyze his rolls for the whole evening, they would likely be close to average.

 

[FireLance]

Given infinite die rolls the chance of rolling certain numbers is, well, certain. Not enough die rolls. Infinite die rolls. There is a small chance that no one will ever, in the rest of humanitys remaining time, roll again three 20's in a row. Very small chance.

Also, which is more likely: rolling a sequence of

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

or

12 3 6 19 15 16 6 11 1 18

?

Equally probable if it's an unbiased die. If it's one that has a slight tendency to roll 20's, the repeats are actually more probable.

There are no lucky dice, only biased ones.

Also when almost any group has a player that rolls 'better' than others, it's just a common psychological thinking pattern in action. People tend to disregard perceptions that go against their prior opinion, and give more weight to perceptions that strengthen their pre-made opinions. So if one rolls wells for a while, it's easy to uphold the status of a 'lucky bastard' from there. If one should statistically analyze his rolls for the whole evening, they would likely be close to average.

Barring, of course, Jedi Knights, savants and people with latent telekinetic abilities.

I personally have rolled 3 20's in a row, thereby instakilling an opponent that would have dropped from my crit, anyway. Another player in my group once managed two crits against two ogres in the same fight, and turned a potentially deadly encounter into a cakewalk. That same player had a character die on him when he rolled a 1 on a save versus poison, and another 1 when another character cast a spell that gave him a re-roll.

These are the rolls that we remember.

 

[AGGEMAM]

The chance of rolling the same number any number of times, eg rolling 20 20's in a row, is actually greater than rolling an exact sequence of number, eg rolling 1 through 20 in a row, because no die is perfectly balanced, it is simply impossible to make.

 

[smetzger]

Okay, how about the chances of this?

I'm sittin' on the couch, watching TV, and eatin' Teddy Grams. I pull out a Teddy and examine it, noticing that there are four different kinds of Teddies. So I eat this first Teddy, and pull out another. Same kind. Pull out another. Same kind. Five more teddies, all the same. The next is different, but I've pulled out 8 Teddies that were the same.

What are the chances of that?

Need more information. How many many teddies of each color where originaly in the bag?

 

[King_Stannis]

i always thought that (on a D20) you had a 5% chance to roll any number. the chances of rolling the same number in a row 3 times is 5% * 5% * 5%= .000125.

then again, i am a roulette player, and realize that if you see 5 26's in a row on the board, the chances of the ball landing on 26 again are just as good as any other number.

so, i guess i'm saying i'm not sure. sorry.

 

[Henry]

i always thought that (on a D20) you had a 5% chance to roll any number. the chances of rolling the same number in a row 3 times is 5% * 5% * 5%= .000125.

then again, i am a roulette player, and realize that if you see 5 26's in a row on the board, the chances of the ball landing on 26 again are just as good as any other number.

so, i guess i'm saying i'm not sure. sorry.

Roulette player or not, you are correct in saying that in an independent event, the chances of the ball landing on 26 again are just as good as any other number, but ONLY as an independent event. The probability of a sixth consecutive 26, however, is quite small.