What are the odds?
- Thread starter Dimwhit
- Start date
Wicht
Hero
Numion said:
Actually, this is not quite true either. After a certain point the improbable becomes in fact the impossible.
Borel's law of probability states that any event for which the chances are 1 in 1 followed by 50 zeroes (1 in 1x10^50) is an event that may be stated with certainty will never happen no matter how much time is alloted nor how many opportunities are given.
mzsylver
Explorer
ah, how glorious it is to be a DM when you roll 6 20s in a row while wielding a vorpal sword. whee! there go 5 heads and one made save! 
unfortunately, the pcs were in a dream sequence at the time - however, all of them had NO IDEA and most of them had their mouths hanging open during that battle. hehe.
unfortunately, the pcs were in a dream sequence at the time - however, all of them had NO IDEA and most of them had their mouths hanging open during that battle. hehe.
CRGreathouse
Community Supporter
Wicht said:
I used up most of my lunch break disproving this (writing a calculator to handle the digits, etc.). If every particle in the universe (~10^89) had the probability you mentioned of doing *something*, the chance that *something* would /not/ happen is less than 10^-618970019642690137449562112, making the chance it would happen quite high (99.999999...%).
Mark
CreativeMountainGames.com
Tewligan said:
I'd rather have the three consequetive twenties if it's all the same to you... (I wonder if it was wise to leave the choice to the man who enjoys irony...?)
Lazybones said:
No biggie, LB, I was with you on the train! You should have read the post I was formulating while reading Tewl's post but before arrving in "drumroll station".
Mustrum_Ridcully
Legend
Maybe this "Law" does only apply to macrothings, not particles. 
But even then, I doubt it is true. (Or, maybe, it is true? If the universe is not endless in spacetime - which seems to be the case, than it could be true...)
The possiblitity, that this certain Atom (from a Kakalubzillion Atoms) is at this certain place (from another Kakalubzillion places) seems to be quite low. But it is still there.
(Well, not actually. Maybe it is there, and flies with that speed, or it is there, and flies with that speed. Help, Quantum Dynamics attacking)
But even then, I doubt it is true. (Or, maybe, it is true? If the universe is not endless in spacetime - which seems to be the case, than it could be true...)
The possiblitity, that this certain Atom (from a Kakalubzillion Atoms) is at this certain place (from another Kakalubzillion places) seems to be quite low. But it is still there.
(Well, not actually. Maybe it is there, and flies with that speed, or it is there, and flies with that speed. Help, Quantum Dynamics attacking)
Last edited:
Wicht
Hero
Mustrum_Ridcully said:Maybe this "Law" does only apply to macrothings, not particles.
But even then, I doubt it is true. (Or, maybe, it is true? If the universe is not endless in spacetime - which seems to be the case, than it could be true...)
Borel's Law of High Numbers applies more or less to any completely random event.
The problem with applying it to things like particles is that the particles are not actually following random patterns but generally behave according to physical laws themselves.
So what's the chance of someone getting three 20's in a series of three rolls? Yes: 1/20^3 = 0.000125.
Now say that person rolls about 30 rolls in a session. What are the chances he gets 3 consecutive 20's? About 1 - (1-0.000125)^10 = 0.001249 (not quite correct, but close enough).
Now let's assume there's one DM and five players. What's the chance any of them get 3 20's? 1 - (1-0.001249)^6 = 0.00747.
Now let's assume you play every week for a whole year. What's the chance anyone in your party will get 3 20's in a row during that time? 1 - (1-0.00747)^52 = 32% !
Considering how long some of us have been playing, three 20's in a row doesn't seem all *that* surprising...
Now say that person rolls about 30 rolls in a session. What are the chances he gets 3 consecutive 20's? About 1 - (1-0.000125)^10 = 0.001249 (not quite correct, but close enough).
Now let's assume there's one DM and five players. What's the chance any of them get 3 20's? 1 - (1-0.001249)^6 = 0.00747.
Now let's assume you play every week for a whole year. What's the chance anyone in your party will get 3 20's in a row during that time? 1 - (1-0.00747)^52 = 32% !
Considering how long some of us have been playing, three 20's in a row doesn't seem all *that* surprising...
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