D&D 4E What if 4e (whenever it happens) is not OGL?

[EditorBFG]

A tangent from Emirikol's thread:

If 4th Edition happens some time in the next five years, and it is no longer open in any way, what is the best strategy for 3rd-party publishers, in your opinion?

One must assume that the release of a 4th Edition will have a negative effect on sales of 3.x compatible materials. Later slumps notwithstanding, the OGL (along with the pdf market) created a revolution in role-playing, with more private entities producing rpg material for sale than ever before. What can the companies who owe their existence to making D&D-compatible products do to survive a market where large numbers of people stop playing d20?

Please don't debate when 4E may happen or the future of the d20 license at the expense of the topic at hand. I'm interested in seeing what people think.

 

[EditorBFG]

From the other thread:

What would most likely happen is that companies continue to use the OGL-compliant rules-set, the one that is, essentially, what we now know as d20. They will lose business to WotC and the new D&D rules-set, but I imagine it won't be as big a blow as some might think.

...

If WotC releases 4e as a non-OGL, non-d20 compliant game, all that will happen, essentially, is that the game industry will pretty much go on as it has, except then the OGL game that is, basically, d20 mechanically will be another competitor for D&D. Which it pretty much is now, anyway. But given the enormous disparity in market share between WotC and the rest of the RPG industry, it won't mean much in any event. Besides, it would greatly surprise me if WotC produced an entirely new game for 4e.

Well, I do think a loss of sales would be big, so I disagree, but I am curious to ask-- respectfully-- why you think it would not be big.

 

[megamania]

A tangent from Emirikol's thread:

If 4th Edition happens some time in the next five years, and it is no longer open in any way, what is the best strategy for 3rd-party publishers, in your opinion?

.

Go with things that can be used regardless of system. Figures and tokens. Beyond that, I'm really sure. Perhaps try to create a 3.5ish system that is agreed to be OGL to all by WoTC.

New definition of being between a rock and a hard place. I really can't think of any options that would work well for everyone.

 

[MavrickWeirdo]

From the other thread: Well, I do think a loss of sales would be big, so I disagree, but I am curious to ask-- respectfully-- why you think it would not be big.

I think his point is that, while it is true that most small press publishers will loose money after 4e comes out, they were also loosing money before 4e came out, and before 3.5 came out, and before 3rd edition.

Infact it is almost a universal truth that most small press publishers loose money. The surprizing part is that the market has held this long.

 

[Emirikol]

I have a hopefully unrealistic anxiety that Dungeon/Dragon's "change" is a harbringer...

jh

 

[w_earle_wheeler]

What will happen?

We would probably see a pseudo 4e OGL. If OSRIC can use the OGL to make a ruleset similar to the closed AD&D 1e system, I don't see why someone couldn't forward engineer a ruleset similar enough to the mechanics of 4e using only material that has already been made (and will forever remain) open.

 

[trancejeremy]

What 3rd party publishers?

Like I said, the only d20 company regularly publishing in print now is Goodman Games. Paizo plans to, but it remains to see how that works out in practice. If 4e comes out, they might go the route Mr. Wheeler suggest, but also could simply go generic or stay 3.5. Goodman at least could also go Osric or C&C, since they've tapped into the retro community pretty well.

Most of the remaining ones focus on their own rules systems/games (having seen this coming - Green Ronin, Mongoose, Kenzer, Troll Lords), or publish so sporadically these days, it doens't really matter. (Like Necromancer. Once they get their products in the pipelines, who knows if they will continue? Or White Wolf? Other than MC WoD, they seem done with d20.)

Even a lot of the PDF publishers have bailed. Phil Reed is working at SJG. RPGObjects seems to be branching out into other systems. So are I think all the other companies really worth mentioning.

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

We would probably see a pseudo 4e OGL. If OSRIC can use the OGL to make a ruleset similar to the closed AD&D 1e system, I don't see why someone couldn't forward engineer a ruleset similar enough to the mechanics of 4e using only material that has already been made (and will forever remain) open.

I can't imagine a 4e that is so removed from 3.5 that it wouldn't be considered derivative of OGL material.

To put it another way, it would be almost impossible to design a 4e for which a publisher could not design compatible material using existing Open Content.

Trademarks and the d20 STL are another matter entirely.

But the issue of publishing "compatible material" has pretty much been sidestepped in perpetuity by the OGL.

 

[WayneLigon]

I think a lot of them will immediately cease to exist. Later on, as the majority of the fan base moves to 4E, all but the handful that manage to either (1) continue to create some useful generic products, like Fiery Dragon or (2) are able to still sell enough 3.5 OGL material to stay afloat, will also perish.

Some companies that have managed to create OGL-based games that are sufficiently different in their makeup, such as Green Ronin, will survive and possibly even flourish once their competition for gamer dollars dies off.

 

[Khuxan]

We would probably see a pseudo 4e OGL. If OSRIC can use the OGL to make a ruleset similar to the closed AD&D 1e system, I don't see why someone couldn't forward engineer a ruleset similar enough to the mechanics of 4e using only material that has already been made (and will forever remain) open.

That's what I anticipate happening.