D&D 4E What if 4e (whenever it happens) is not OGL?

[jgbrowning]

While I'm glad you're still going, I meant companies whose products are well, commonly available in game stores, or places online like Amazon.com or FRPGames. And even you are proving my point - your "Advanced Adventures", half your current output, it seems, is for Osric, not d20 per se, and you are also branching out into True 20.

My apologies, when you said "the only d20 company regularly publishing in print now is Goodman Games," I felt that I should respond to inform you that isn't the case. We've had at least 1 release every month since last GenCon. Of those releases, all but 3 have been for d20.

We don't sell in the book trade, only the hobby trade, hence little amazon.com (and hence no returns on wholesale sold product!). They are easily available online via sellers such as Orcsnest, Leisure games, etc. and if you have a FLGS who doesn't carry our products, they can order them for you. We're not a big company, and as you note our market penetration reflects that fact, but we are still a print publishing 3rd party company.

joe b.

 

[Ogrork the Mighty]

When 4E comes out, those companies that were relying on the OGL will become the typewriter companies of the 1980s. Time to find some other way to make money b/c that ship is sinking. No matter what happy face you put on it and no matter how many diehards tell you otherwise, what had been a struggling enterprise will become an impossible one.

People who keep playing 3.0/3.5 will eventually become marginal. Just like the people who still play AD&D or 2E.

 

[carmachu]

A tangent from Emirikol's thread:

If 4th Edition happens some time in the next five years, and it is no longer open in any way, what is the best strategy for 3rd-party publishers, in your opinion?

One must assume that the release of a 4th Edition will have a negative effect on sales of 3.x compatible materials. Later slumps notwithstanding, the OGL (along with the pdf market) created a revolution in role-playing, with more private entities producing rpg material for sale than ever before. What can the companies who owe their existence to making D&D-compatible products do to survive a market where large numbers of people stop playing d20?

Please don't debate when 4E may happen or the future of the d20 license at the expense of the topic at hand. I'm interested in seeing what people think.

WotC will lose part of their customer base. Frankly while I buy a good amount of their stuff, I have almost equal amount in 3rd party stuff. Why would I want to pick up 4th then?

I mean I could run Ptolus and WLD for years without ever getting into 4th...

 

[carmachu]

What 3rd party publishers?

Malhavoc press...ie monte cook products.


I think you just dont loko around enough.

 

[Crothian]

When 4E comes out, those companies that were relying on the OGL will become the typewriter companies of the 1980s. Time to find some other way to make money b/c that ship is sinking.

If you look around, many of the companies have been slowly doing non ogl products along with their ogl ones in preparation for this day.

 

[Andre]

I expect most, upwards of 90%, of d20-related material will stop selling within a couple months of the release of 4E. How much is selling a year later is anyone's guess.

Four reasons:
1. Remember when 3.0 came out? Remeber how much of RPG spending it sucked up - it was like a black hole. After gamers came up for air, then other game systems were able to create their niche. But initially, 4E will dominate in the competition for gamers' wallets.

2. If WOTC doesn't release a 4E OGL, I would be shocked if they also didn't take steps (not necessarily "evil" or illegal) to make it harder for competitors to feed off of 4E. And remember, tho 3.5 differs little from 3.0, many gamers refused to purchase 3.0 material after the switch.

3. The customers most likely to change to the new version are the ones who are currently supporting third party vendors. The average D&D gaming group apparently isn't too concerned with what other vendors are offering (based on the terribly low sales figures that we know of). So the third-party vendors are likely to lose their most reliable customers, at least for a time.

4. It takes time to learn and absorb a new system. It will be months before the current (or new) vendors could be producing quality, accurate 4E material to replace the lost sales from 3.x. If their current customers are spending their money on new WOTC material, will they come back later? Some won't.

All this is premised on one assumption - that the new system is not a complete dud. We'll see...

 

[jefgorbach]

Given the availability of the OGL and fan support, although WOTC's v4 will immediately drop v3/3.5/d20 sales, it would likely be a short-term blip as fan maintain their existing campaigns, adapting v4 plots/etc as possible -- just as we do now. Eventually v4 may takeover, but that is upto the FANS not WOTC, just as always.

 

[ColonelHardisson]

From the other thread: Well, I do think a loss of sales would be big, so I disagree, but I am curious to ask-- respectfully-- why you think it would not be big.

Mostly because of what others have already said - many d20 and OGL publishers have already either stopped using the system we know as d20, or have established enough of an identity with their OGL games that they stand alone (Mutants & Masterminds, Conan). Certainly some companies will be impacted upon, but I get the feeling that after 3.5 caught so many flat-footed, that many of those already have a contingency plan worked up. Or at least, they should have.

 

[Najo]

To make it clear as possible, unless 4e changes the six stats and the d20 for tests, there is nothing legal that WOTC can do to stop 3rd parties making 4e compatible books. The 3rd parties will lose the d20 trademark, but that is all WOTC can shutdown and take away. The OGL is a cat let out of the bag and it allows open modification to the system by its own legal guidelines. You can change your material to match 4e exactly and it would be OGL.

Just watch Paizo's lead. I will bet that they are doing 4e material through the OGL when the axe falls. Mark my words.

For those who don't agree, go read the legal documents on WOTC's site for OGL and D20 and show how this is not the case.

 

[Nellisir]

To make it clear as possible, unless 4e changes the six stats and the d20 for tests, there is nothing legal that WOTC can do to stop 3rd parties making 4e compatible books. The 3rd parties will lose the d20 trademark, but that is all WOTC can shutdown and take away. The OGL is a cat let out of the bag and it allows open modification to the system by its own legal guidelines. You can change your material to match 4e exactly and it would be OGL.

Just watch Paizo's lead. I will bet that they are doing 4e material through the OGL when the axe falls. Mark my words.

For those who don't agree, go read the legal documents on WOTC's site for OGL and D20 and show how this is not the case.

Ditto.

Third party publishers just aren't a big concern to WotC. One thing that the OGL proved was that D&D/d20 consumers buy WotC first, and everything else second. Or third. Or not at all, depending on how many products WotC puts out in a month.

"D20" publishers have gotten fewer and smaller, and overwhelmingly switched from print to pdf as a primary distribution source. A few -- a very, very, few -- are starting to battle back the other way, an uphill battle that Paizo is headlining, if not leading.