What would WotC need to do to win back the disenchanted?

[Imaro]

It is. Good comment.

The trouble is - and I'm sure that Wizards were extremely aware of this when making 4e - that although you have vocal supporters of 3.5e, you have a lot of non-vocal people who were dropping of and refusing to play it any more. 3E was a game I really enjoyed, but at the end the game was just so much work to run.

Truly, running high-level 3E was a game for the dedicated DM and players.

Honestly Merric, I don't have much experience with high level 3e and I think this might be one of the things WotC messed up on. They assumed that everyone ran super long campaigns into high levels, on a regular basis... when I would argue that is probably a small subset of DM's. I find a much more satisfying game playing an E8 Pathfinder game... than I did with 4e and it's mathematical sweet spot across all levels.

When you can't retain some people with a system that they've been playing because it just becomes too much work, then you have a problem.

True, but this assumes that they all wanted a different game with totally different fluff(and I'm almost positive that this isn't 100% true)...as opposed to the same game and fluff with fixes... or perhaps tweaks along the lines of Star Wars SE.

Looked at from this point of view, 4E is a system that is intended to retain DMs longer, as well as introduce new players to the game.

Cheers!

I would say 4e is a game designed to allow DM's who like to run longer continuous D&D games an easier time of doing so. There are some DM's who like to run shorter camapigns of more variation in system, campaign world, etc... 4e would not necessarily retain them any longer than 3e. As far as new players go... I've heard this since the game was released and I don't find a 1st level Pathfinder character any harder to create or run than a D&D 4e character... so what exactly does 4e do specifically to better introduce new players to the game. And if it succeded why are essentials being released 2 years later?

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I'm now thinking in terms of something a bit more subtle.

For most intents and purposes, the same copyright law covers music and RPGs. That does not mean that the business of music is the same as the business of RPGs. So, even if the law is the same, there are probably going to be distinctions between them as to what actions make sense. That a musician can (and maybe should) put out their content as a loss-leader does not imply that an RPG company should.

Which is why I brought up other publishers.

Makers of sheet music, printers of comic books, novels, magazines, newspapers and so forth are all involved in both printing physical and supplying digital IP- not a one of them I know of has reacted to piracy by withdrawing their product from the market.

Except WotC.

Well, technically a loss-leader is sold at or below cost. Otherwise, it isn't a loss...

Yeah- that was part of an incomplete thought on my part brought on by a call from the kitchen regarding impending food disaster.

To paraphrase Dream Theater, "Hit 'Submit Reply' then Run Away"

My point was that the P&P RPG is probably the least profitable part of the D&D brand, as many have alleged, so piracy concerns about that aspect are the least of their worries. P&P or pdf, though, the brand needs the game to survive, whether or not its profitable.

And pdfs are simply one of the best tools to get your product into hands across the world right now.

But, that's an aside. My point was not as clear as I thought: You can't have a loss-leader if the leader isn't leading anything. They don't have a new movie (and have severely damaged movie earnings potential, even). They don't have a big videogame (Neverwinter Nights is *old*). Until they have one of those big moneymakers, loss-leading is just loss!

True on all points.

But while there isn't a new computer game or movie (thank God!) out there right now doesn't mean D&D isn't leading into other projects: they've got books, they've got HeroScape, minis...and who knows what they're negotiating for? Not to mention "stealth" products- I don't know of any that WotC has in particular, but Marvel comics had at least one show that was based on their characters...but with different names and appearances. Even though I don't want another crappy D&D movie, I'm sure SyFy would buy one...and neither company would be above making a "stealth" one, either.

Besides, the fact remains that as soon as something physical is in the market these days, it can be pirated. The argument for withdrawing pdfs- which have a lower per unit cost and higher profit margins than physical books- from the market because of piracy is just as valid if not moreso for physical books.

If someone has pirated 4ED PHB1 in digital form, and I'm WotC, I have to look at my physical and digital versions of the PHB1's profitability...and the physical one will come up on the short end of that analysis. Assuming the market for physical books isn't bigger than the one for digital ones, the product line to drop would be the physical ones. Subsequent releases, all digital from start to market will have lower production costs still.

Yet WotC continues to produce physical product.

 

[Kobold Boots]

Allegedly this has been the case for a long time in places like China. "Rockstars" in China have to make all their income from playing concerts all the time, due to so much piracy of cds and dvds. Essentially music cds are by default a loss-leader from the very start in such a system of rampant piracy.

While I won't say you're correct or incorrect about China, I can tell you from personal experience that the only way to make money as a musician in the states (at least since the mid 90s if not late 80s) has been to tour your nuts off. The only acts making money off of album sales at that time were acts on their second record deals, those that owned their own publishing company or those that were some combination of the two and multi platinum.

 

[ggroy]

Yet WotC continues to produce physical product.

What is the likelihood that WotC is behind the curve, but is really itching to exit the book market and go all digital?

 

[Kobold Boots]

.. and um..

So what can WoTC do to win back the disenchanted? (looks about at the conversation that traced into first-year IP law..) blink.. blink..

"I shoot magic missle at the darkness.."

 

[ggroy]

I can tell you from personal experience that the only way to make money as a musician in the states (at least since the mid 90s if not late 80s) has been to tour your nuts off. The only acts making money off of album sales at that time were acts on their second record deals, those that owned their own publishing company or those that were some combination of the two and multi platinum.

This jives with my personal experiences too, albeit from second hand accounts.

I use to be a musician many years ago, and had many friends who were in acts that got record deals and did tours. Personally I was never able to make a living from it.

 

[fanboy2000]

Not for everyone. Loans come due, jobs get lost, babies get born, and folks get robbed every day. Sometimes it is easy to spend $5 on a PDF. Sometimes, it is not.

So your saying that buying PDFs of older editions of D&D is a low priority on many people's lists?

It seems really narmed to think that everyone who would have wanted them could have got them within the period that they were all available, given that we don't live in a world where infinite money pours from the sky.

Nah, you don't need an infinite amount of money, just enough to get the products you want.

My point is that even at dirt cheep prices, PDFs of older editions of D&D are a very low priority to many many people.

 

[MerricB]

Honestly Merric, I don't have much experience with high level 3e and I think this might be one of the things WotC messed up on. They assumed that everyone ran super long campaigns into high levels, on a regular basis... when I would argue that is probably a small subset of DM's. I find a much more satisfying game playing an E8 Pathfinder game... than I did with 4e and it's mathematical sweet spot across all levels.

I've run two campaigns that reached 16th level in 3e and one that reached 21st level, so yes, I've probably more experience of the higher levels than you. Even so, at lower levels there are still a lot of areas of preparation concern. New Monster? New NPC? Urgh.

True, but this assumes that they all wanted a different game with totally different fluff(and I'm almost positive that this isn't 100% true)...as opposed to the same game and fluff with fixes... or perhaps tweaks along the lines of Star Wars SE.

No, it doesn't assume that. It's what they did, but the reason doesn't assume that. Note that SW SE has some serious mathematical flaws in it - Use the Force and healing - which cause great problems with ongoing campaigns.

don't find a 1st level Pathfinder character any harder to create or run than a D&D 4e character... so what exactly does 4e do specifically to better introduce new players to the game. And if it succeded why are essentials being released 2 years later?

I say intended to, not does; although I think it definitely succeeds on the DM count. I have a different opinion on some of the new mechanics, of which I've written about elsewhere. (Combat Superiority and Combat Challenge. Urgh!)

Cheers!

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I can tell you from personal experience that the only way to make money as a musician in the states (at least since the mid 90s if not late 80s) has been to tour your nuts off

As with almost anything, the way to make serious money isn't about working harder, its about working smarter.

Your music- assuming you're not also the writer getting royalties through that channel as well- is just the tip of the iceberg. Your music gets you the tour and other exposure.

The next step is touring & other exposure- getting on a movie soundtrack, being the featured artist in a TV show or doing a soundtrack to a video game, etc. This gets you more money- your take-home will be higher, and it will reinforce sales of your music, even your back catalog. More importantly, if you do it right, this makes your band into a brand.

And the Brand is where the REAL money is- merch, merch merch. Gene Simmons didn't become as wealthy as he is by selling KISS albums or going on tour, he got it by putting the brand's name on EVERYTHING. That helped get him a TV deal.

David Bowie? He sold stock in future releases, which, at one point, made him the second richest musician in the world (I believe Sir Paul edged him out).

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

What is the likelihood that WotC is behind the curve, but is really itching to exit the book market and go all digital?

I don't think that will happen for some time.

Even as the least profitable segment of the brand, my guess is that the books are still profitable, and the market for them is still quite large.

Plus the jury is still out on when the average consumer will be comfortable with 100% digital content for entertainment. Many- myself included- still prefer the physical stuff for a variety of reasons, seeing digital stuff as a backup and a convenience...but not a viable substitute.

But GenY is growing up in the digital age, and are just fine with pure digital content...and as mentioned before, they're as big a group as the Baby Boomers.

It may not happen with 5Ed, but I wouldn't be surprised to find 6Ed to be released entirely in digital form. So...12-20 years?