D&D 4E When do you think 4E will be released?

[Thornir Alekeg]

I voted the "other"...as in "whatever" choice. Might as well have a poll about when the Earth will next be struck by a speices-killing asteroid. It will happen when it happens, and all our complaining about it or crying for it will not make a bit of difference.

The odds are good some form of 4e will come out in the next decade. The odds are great that I will probably complain about it in some way shape or form after it is announced. Then I will look at it, decide along with my group if it is worth it, probably lay down the money for it and sometime over the next few years after its release might actually switch to it (we STILL have not gone 3.5 yet, although we all now own the books and are planning on doing it someday).

In the end it will all be decided by how good a product it is, how much BETTER it is over 3E and how interested in gaming I am at the time.

 

[William Ronald]

2006? Way too early. I'm not talking from our point of view, either. I'm talking from what I think is the designer's point of view.

4E is going to be a Big Deal. I doubt it'll be as massive as 2E->3E, but it shouldn't be trivial, either. As a result, it should be playtested first. If it is done right, the playtesting will take about a year.

Then it will take a year to get the final development and typesetting done. If they started today, it'd be 2006... and they're not beginning today. At the moment, we're in the D&D 3E Renaissance, with Wizards producing the miniatures, Eberron and a bunch of other sourcebooks.

I expect that the current crop of products will keep Wizards busy through 2005. In 2006, they'll have a look at where they are, and probably decide it's time for 4E. Then, in 2008, 4E will be released.

Cheers!

I am going to lean towards 2008, in large part because of the business plan and the apprarent success of the miniatures line. This may discourage a need for a new edition. That said, I think that several companies are giving WotC a good run for its money on supplements.

 

[MerricB]

That said, I think that several companies are giving WotC a good run for its money on supplements.

It's nice to know that there are good d20 System supplements out there... but, realistically, they're not going to impinge on Wizards all that much.

What are the sales of supplements like Complete Warrior? Then compare that to the sales of the Quintessential Book of Fighters II. I suspect that the figures are very lopsided in Wizards favour.

Cheers!

 

[DaveMage]

I voted 2007, though my hope is after 2015...

I think 2006 was likely until the minis took off.

However, I predict that the mini market will top out at the end of the 2005 series. Why? Storage issues. (Unless the current format is changed to a non-random distribution, or a separate line that focuses solely on the tabletop RPG consumer emerges. I certainly don't need any more humans, elves, or (good) dwarves which is what a large part of the minis so far have been.)

At that point, it will be time for a D&D money-maker to be produced by WotC, and therefore development of a new edition would begin in 2006 for GenCon 2007 release.

I hope I'm completely and utterly wrong though, I don't want to see 4e for a long, long time.

 

[Arbiter of Wyrms]

Clearly, EvilHalfling has the formula down. Each edition lasts about eleven years before they finally call it quits and move on. I love 3e for innumerable reasons, but mostly because when it came out, I realized just how broken AD&D 2e really was. Maybe, long about 2011, someone will be able to demonstrate to me that d20 has outlived its usefulness, or that it needs a change. Yeah, I'll be bent about the change, and I'll complain about the money, and all of that, but if it's really better, I'll be excited too, and I'll gobble up whatever they sell. I'm really only a follower at heart, and I buy what Hasbro/WoTC/TSR tell me I want.

The Xenocide and the Speaker for the Dead

 

[KenM]

If WOTC puts out another edtion on or before 2006, I will no longer support them. It will be obvious the WOTC is going with the games workshop business plan:

1. Put out a new edtion
2. Put out all the books/ suplements for it.
3. When they can't put out anymore books, put out another "new edtion"

I will not buy new core books every 3 years.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I think Evilhalfling has a good formula going, but it fails to account for Hasbro's attitude. Thus, I voted 2009.

(Just for the record, my group used Skills & Powers & Combat & Tactics pretty extensively...but almost never used the other 2 Players Option books.)

 

[rogueattorney]

I voted "other" as in, "I don't care". Chances are, I will like it as little as I like the most recent few editions.

Those who are citing the 11-year increments are ignoring a pretty crucial element. Both 2ed and 3ed came out after a significant change in ownership of the D&D property. 2e came out about two years after the powers that be finally were able to force G.G. out of TSR. 3e came out about two years after TSR went under and it was acquired by WotC. (Hasbro's subsequently acquired WotC, but it looks like they haven't really interfered much with how things have been run.) The eleven years thing was pretty much a coincidence. So, to answer the question seriously, I'd say the next big revision comes within a couple years of the next real big shake-up in management at WotC/Hasbro.

Now, I could see WotC/Hasbro doing BRP/CoC-styled "editions" ad infinium, but I don't think that's the style of edition "changes" the original poster was looking for. I'd look for a 3.51, 3.6, 3.75, and 3.8 before I'd look for a true fourth edition of the game.

R.A.

 

[DM-Rocco]

I am going with depends. It depends if the fine staff at WOTC checked themselves into crack rehab and therefore don't need the extra money for drugs, in which case I say never. Or, if they are still junky drug addicts and need tons of money to feed their overwhelming drug habbit, in that case I say next week.

 

[TheFan]

It may just be rumor, but I heard from someone in the RPGA that Wizards promised them no new edition until 2013 (ten years after 3.5). Again, don't take my word from it as this is just a rumor.