D&D 5E Why I Think D&DN is In Trouble

[Dausuul]

Well, put it another way. The 1999 WOTC market research found that 3% of American males 18-35 had played D&D in the last year. That's HUGE. That's what the brand is worth.

Ah, now that's better. (I'd be very interested to see the source of that data, but I'll take your word for it.) And I agree, that is indeed huge.

Though I think it may understate the value of the brand. During the '80s and early '90s, the D&D craze followed by the Satanism scare gave D&D a level of name recognition all out of proportion to the number of people who actually played the game. That name recognition has undoubtedly dwindled in 20 years, but a lot of it must still be out there. It's hard to credit that 90% or 75% of Americans have heard of D&D, but I could easily believe 25%, and that's a lot of people. The trick is figuring out how to convert name recognition into cash flow.

 

[Manbearcat]

Was worth in 1999. We aren't really sure how it may have changed in that time.

Couple that with just how competitive the current leisure activity market is (and how steeply that has scaled in the last 15 years) and you have a difficult row to hoe for a niche leisure activity market such as TTRPGs...specifically when shareholders are involved, you get a few poor quarterly reports for the company in succession, and the underlying expectations of return are out of touch with what the niche market could possibly hope to produce.

 

[Ahnehnois]

I see a fourth Transformers movie coming out. The bar isn't that high for what constitutes a viable property.

 

[Lokiare]

I see a fourth Transformers movie coming out. The bar isn't that high for what constitutes a viable property.

Yeah, I personally suspect the bar is "You can make more money than you spend on it" which means just about anything is a viable property...

 

[Halivar]

I see a fourth Transformers movie coming out. The bar isn't that high for what constitutes a viable property.

Whatever! Just you wait and see; they're gonna bring back the Lion version of the opening theme song, and have Stan Bush do rest of the soundtrack...

I believe.

 

[TwoSix]

I see a fourth Transformers movie coming out. The bar isn't that high for what constitutes a viable property.

Just wanted to point out that the three Transformer movies have grossed 2.67 billion dollars worldwide. The franchise might not set a high bar aesthetically, but it's a damn high bar to meet in terms of commercial success.

 

[Ahnehnois]

The point I was making is that transformers, before these movies, were an '80's fad that had basically been forgotten. I can't imagine that the material had higher brand recognition than D&D at the time they were pitched, or that they were in any way more appealing to a movie studio. There are a lot of movies making big money through niche properties. So while I don't think that 90% of people know that D&D is a game, I definitely think that enough people do that if the legal issues could be worked out, it could be made into a very successful movie franchise (or any number of other things).

 

[Manbearcat]

The point I was making is that transformers, before these movies, were an '80's fad that had basically been forgotten. I can't imagine that the material had higher brand recognition than D&D at the time they were pitched, or that they were in any way more appealing to a movie studio. There are a lot of movies making big money through niche properties. So while I don't think that 90% of people know that D&D is a game, I definitely think that enough people do that if the legal issues could be worked out, it could be made into a very successful movie franchise (or any number of other things).

Woah. I'm not so sure about that. The percentage of young boys that played with Transformers in the 80s would have to be much greater than 75 %, 3 in 4. My guess is that the percentage of young boys who were exposed to actual D&D play in that same period would likely be less than 25 %, 1 in 4. "Make Believe" was 100 % boydom, but D&D was a Boy Scout camp phenomenon and a cultural play practice very much relegated to the periphery of standard "boydom". I played in 1984 at the age of 7. This was with 13 year olds (a cousin and his friend). Out of all of my friends of my age group, I knew of one small group of kids from Boy Scouts who played D&D...8 boys (myself included)...out of over 50 boys that I knew quite well and played with (sports, play-toys, make-believe, etc). Everyone, I mean everyone, played with Transformers, G.I. Joe and He Man. I'm certain my experience isn't anomalous.

Further, as far as I know, the Transformers cartoon was wildly successful and had a very long running (as cartoons go). The cartoon movie moved a lot of units. The franchise continued to support multiple evolving lines of toys (and still does to this age). I know you were born after this period and I think your exposure is showing here. I don't think you can compare D&D as a mainstream phenomenon (for that age group) to Transformers in the slightest.

 

[Ahnehnois]

Well, I was born in the mid '80's, and I didn't know there was a cartoon nor had seen one of the actual toys until the movies came out. The big roughly comparable things for my generation were Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and later Power Rangers and Pokemon. If Transformers was that popular, it sure became obscure fast. Either that or I've lived a very sheltered life.

The exact same thing is true of G.I. Joe, another '80's toy fad that apparently had a mythology that you had to be there for. And is now making profitable, crappy movies. There are a lot of niche franchises that seem to be doing that.

To me, it seems that pop culture tends to be very cyclic.

 

[Manbearcat]

To me, it seems that pop culture tends to be very cyclic.

On that I certainly agree. We are fickle creatures with irrationally, waxing and waning aesthetic preferences.

I think the primary reason you're seeing a Transformers movie now is because the CGI tech is only recently available. If they could have produced one in the 80s or 90s, it would have been jumped on.