Darraketh said:
About half.
Actually, I think it will be less than that, though not by much.
Lets just take a guess at some numbers here. Random guessing..
Say that WoTC gets about 100 submissions (as a sampling of the overall received.)
Out of these, about 10 will hit the roundfile immediately for not following directions. (font too tiny, altering the submission form, more than a single page, etc...)
I would hazard a guess that out of the 90 remaining, which does make it to the panel, about 25 of them will be eliminated for being extremely poorly written (which my first submission would likely fall into this group). Entries with no focus, or no real theme to them. (lousy first sentence). This leaves us with 65.
Out of these 65, about ten or so will be obvious rip-offs of other fantasy (or converted sci-fi) settings, and off they go to file 13.
This now leaves us with 55. Of these, another 10 will be obvious clones of the current settings with just the serial numbers filed off and the names changed (to protect the guilty, in this case). Of to the wonderful land of recycling for these guys as well.
Now we are down to 45 submissions. Another ten will not have anything unique enough about them to make them stand out from the crowd, mostly being a standard generic setting... Say bye-bye to them.
We are down to 35 entries out of 100 now. Another 10 of these will be dropped because the panel does not like something about the setting for one reason or another. Natural selection... leaving us with 25 out of the original 100.
This is where things start to get interesting. Out of these, the panel will be looking for a setting that can be used for not only rpgs, but for books, minis, TCGs and other product lines. This will cut another 15 easily, as while some may be unique, and interesting, they will be unsuited for one or another of these lines for one reason or another (and I will bet that a lot of people forgot to take this into account as well).
This leaves us with 10 entries out of the original 100. My second entry would fall into this group. Thus my reasoning that I have a slightly better than average chance. I did take into account the possibilities for other product lines (with more focus on books, and rpgs, though there is ample room for minis and TCGs as well without any trouble.
So, I would hazard a guess, that I have a 1 in 10 chance of being selected as one of the top ten. And that, I am happy with. I would be happier if mine was one of the ones selected, but I know that those selected will be as good or better than mine, so the setting finally chosen is going to be one that really rocks!!
And no, this is not conceit, this is simple confidence in my work. I have been playing rpgs for close to a quarter century now, and when DMing, I have never failed to provide my players with unique and interesting settings. I am also well thought of by at least one other gaming company (the same one where Monte got his start - for the trivia hounds out there, do you know the answer?), and have been writing various things for a number of years now.
So once again, I dip into the well of lunacy and wish everybody good luck on their submissions......