Paizo's entire industry is based on selling 3rd edition to 3rd edition fans.
They're not bringing in new gamers with PDFs.
I'd ask your numbers, but we both know that neither of us have any, so let's both agree that Paizo may or may not be bringing in any number of cats who may or may not be dead into the hobby.
No pdf-selling company advertises or attracts new customers to -the rpg market.- What they all do is try to advertise -to- the rpg market. Paizo is no different. What Paizo is NOT doing is -creating- new market opportunities.
Once again, I refer us back to Schrodinger's Customers.
That's where your brick and mortar shops come in, as they can -demonstrate- the gaming products in a way a website simply cannot.
PDFs are to sell to existing markets, but they do not open new markets, and the future of the industry -requires- the opening of new markets to replace the closing of old ones.
Your entire argument lies on us just sorta nodding and going "Oh man, that's so right, those pdfs are just garbage. The Man is trying to keep us out of the book and mortar stores, man! Righteous!"
No.
Online shopping is a
thing. it is a very popular
thing. Pretending it is not a
thing does not cause it to cease existing.
But those books -are- for sale. You go to the brick and mortar and you buy them. This isn't really a true argument.
I don't buy apples and then mash them up myself when I want apple sauce.
Pdfs have a lot of great options and utility that normal books don't. Again, this ain't the 80's. It's easier to carry an external HD then a full bookshelf.
Here's how it breaks down: Bob wants a pdf of <book>. That pdf is not for sale, but it is available for illegal download. The owner of <book> will not be selling the pdf. What are Bob's choices? He can either 1) suck it down, or 2) Just download the damn thing and wonder why the owner doesn't want his money.
Physical books and pdfs are not created equal. One is good at somethings, the other is good at others. Wanting to have a pdf should not be a crime. WotC has made it one.
I think it's hard to criticize their viewpoint by using fear words such as 'hemmorhaging' potential money.
They found a leech, ripped it off, and didn't bother treating the open wound, causing blood to pour out. That's pretty much hemmorhaging.
You -vastly- overestimate how much of a market there is for -games- in pdf form. They know what the sales are, and they know the cost to produce them, and they know the cost to DDI, and they know the cost to physical books. Wizards is one of the few gaming companies that has an active market research department. These you do not, and cannot speak of. We can speculate as to why, but we cannot properly criticize their business sense.
Sure we can. Watch: I am criticizing their business sense, as they are losing potential money over their decision not to sell pdfs.
[This isn't a case where they're afraid to 'try the future'. This is a case where they did, and it did not work.
That we know of from the extremely limited press releases that also promised a
return of some type of online sale of books.
So if you want to make a persuasive argument as to why it might work, you have to look at the situation -now- and see how it is different from -then.-
Things are not different now. So why would they reinstate a policy that they deemed to have failed? To think they should doesn't make sense from their standpoint.
Because to myself and many others, the policy did not fail - it was caused by faulty decision making.
And you have no evidence that WoTC does not have business acumen in this industry; this isn't T, this is the company that resurrected Dungeons and Dragons from the grave, and reasserted its position as a market-definer -before- 3rd edition, d20, and all that. You mention Paizo, a company which started its rpg presence publishing Dragon and Dungeon, and now publishes a knockoff of d20 and 3.5. This is a company that COULD NOT EXIST without the doors Wizards endevours to open.
What on earth are you going on about? I'm not claiming WotC is this horrible evil overlord that's keeping The People down, and that everything they do is crap. I'm saying they made a mistake and they're sticking with it. You know, like
humans do. WotC isn't some horrid mythical beast that cackles with seven heads and ten horns. By the same line, they aren't angelic figures bringing in the seven seals for the Lion of Judah. It's a business run by people, and both people and businesses have been known to make mistakes.
I repeat to you, a PDF-only industry is a dead industry. Companies that are PDF-only are not creating new markets, they are competing for the same market. But they are -much- smaller and can afford to do so (when they aren't going under, which smaller companies do all the time). An existing market, however, is a shrinking market for entertainment items, as eventually, they'll move on and stop trying new products. That means you -need- new players, new buyers.
How does that happen with PDFs?
And yet once again, Schrodinger's Customers.
...Which I've used three times, and it's a shame, because I'm really only refering to the popular consensus on what the whole Schrodinger's Cat means rather then it's
actual meaning in Physics. But, well, it (hopefully) gets the point across.
How does it happen with PDFs? Billy is surfing the internet because he saw Penny Arcade mention this cool thing called 4th edition. Wow, there's a thing for it on the internet he can buy, and he can just read it straight off his laptop!
Done and done.