So you got back into gaming because 5E made a lot of money?
I suppose not. I bought the PHB from my FLGS close to when it was first released. In a sense, I'm part of the demographic of ex-gamers that 5e brought back into the fold and help make it a commercial success. Brand recognition helped, but I played back in the 80s. I mean, I didn't even know anything about the history of TSR failing, the WotC buyout, or the raise of Paizo until I got back into the hobby. I didn't know about, much less watch Critical Role or any live play games, and Stranger Things wouldn't be released until almost two years after I got back into the game.
But I don't think that I'm the demographic that matters. How do you get people that have no personal or family experience with TTRPGs to be aware of and interested in trying them? This is where Hasbro/WotC can have a much bigger impact than any other publisher in the TTRPG space.
None. That’s part of the problem.
This was in response to my question: "What other TTRPG has a company like Hasbro and its marketing power behind it? I would love to see a TTRPG "DC" to WotC's "Marvel". Having two, or more, major publishers that could grow the hobby would be awesome. But I'm having trouble seeing it happening, at least in the near future. There are a variety of IPs that have related TTRPGs (Witcher, Dr. Who, Star Wars, Dragon Prince, etc.). But I don't think that the average viewer of those shows associate them with games. It seems to be those already in the hobby who are interested in playing TTRPGs based on other IPs. D&D is the one TTRPG brand that someone outside of the hobby will associate with a game. I would rather pin my hopes on the D&D movie being a success and bringing even more people into the hobby, than hoping for the more unlikely scenario that another brand will arise that can make the same connection and have a similar impact.
Except you’re forgetting pop culture. The two main vectors for non-gamers finding out about D&D through pop culture over the last decade had been Stranger Things and Critical Role. Unless something drastic happens, CR and Stranger Things will continue to exist. They will keep going. CR is far more likely to continue putting out new content longer than Stranger Things. That’s not going away.
But both of those are tied to DnD. If DnD were to "go away" what makes you think that someone will be led to a different TTRPG? Also, while I think CR has had a large, positive impact on the hobby, I feel live-stream TTRPG games are fairly niche. CR and D&D are in a symbiotic relationship. The popularity of CR certainly helps D&D but the popularity of D&D also brings more potential fans to CR. I found CR because of D&D, not the other way around.
Word of mouth is still a thing. All the players that exist now, who like the hobby and want to keep engaging with it, will keep on doing so. Regardless of what D&D or WotC does. With D&D around, sucking up the majority of the money and audience, most fans will just stick with them. WotC sours enough fans or tanks the new edition, then interested fans will migrate to other games. We’ve literally been through this before with 4E and Paizo’s Pathfinder.
Did the 4e / Pathfinder situation grow the hobby as a whole or just redistribute existing players? I don't pretend to have a deep understanding of the history and Pathfinder or the overall sales numbers for the hobby from that period, but it seems to me that Paizo was successful mainly by taking away consumers from WotC, rather than bringing large numbers of new fans to the hobby.
If we are at peak numbers of consumers for the hobby, I think your analysis makes sense. But I believe that the hobby as a whole has a lot of room to grow and Hasbro/WotC is best positioned to grow the hobby. I'm also not sure if I agree with your argument that "most fans will just stick with [D&D]." I don't have the numbers and maybe you do, but anecdotally, I see a lot of people who start with D&D branching out to other systems. I certainly did. In my case most of my money is still D&D related, but most of that has been on companies other than WotC: third-party books, terrain, miniatures, VTT and other game-related software. If I had a different work and travel situation, I would play more non-D&D games. It will be interesting to see how my son's middle-school aged D&D group evolves. If my experiences from the 80s hold any relevance to today's youth, I expect that as they move into high school they will branch out to other systems.
At a guess, the “new Pathfinder” will be Critical Role. All they have to do is put out a book of rules and their millions of fans will jump on it. If the rules are close to 5E, great. If not, their fans will still snatch it up. And just like that, you have a giant new competitor to D&D. They instantly have millions of eyes on their products and game system. Week after week after week. Oh, and their animated series on Amazon Prime. You want advertising that rivals Hasbro? There you go. I’d be surprised if they didn’t join up with MCDM to do something, considering they’re friends. Mercer can homebrew some classes and worldbuild better than most, but Colville has the design chops. CR has the fan base. WotC tanks it with the OGL…blam. “New Pathfinder.”
That would be cool, I'm just not as optimistic that CR would be able impact popular culture as deeply and as widely as Hasbro/WotC can. Vox Machina is a fun show. I backed it on Kickstarter and enjoyed the first season. But it is intimately tied with D&D. Also, it isn't something that many parents would let their kids watch. I don't know anyone outside of people I talk to on the Internet that watched it. I don't feel that it will rival the D&D movie, even if the D&D movie under performs. That is not meant as a dig on CR. I love what CR and MCDM have done and have spend a lot on both of their content. But I don't seem them as being in the same league as D&D, but rather good companies profiting from being in D&D's orbit.