Changeover Poll

[Edena_of_Neith]

(look of surprise)

I wish to point out something that is surprising me here:

I find it a little bit of an Eye-Opener that almost as many people have chosen Option 6 (Tried 4E, returned to earlier editions) as people who chose Options 1 and Options 2 combined (Changeover.)

Changeover: 33%
Option 6 (Tried 4E, went back to earlier editions) 30%

Had *all* those who tried 4E stuck with it, then the Changovers would number 63%, and the No Changeovers would number 27%.
In that case, the Changeovers would have had a greater than 63/27 split over the No Changeovers.
Instead, the No Changeovers have close to a 56/33 split over the Changeovers.
In short, what would have been a 60/30 split one way, is a 60/30 split the other way.
All because of the 30% who chose Option 6.

At least, that is information in this particular poll.

I'm not taking sides ... or even saying my poll is valid ... merely expressing some surprise at these numbers.

-

Since those who chose Option 7 number only 27%, that means that 73% of those responding to this poll, have at least tried 4th Edition D&D.

 

[Beginning of the End]

I'm not taking sides ... or even saying my poll is valid ... merely expressing some surprise at these numbers.

Those numbers are certainly eye-popping for me. There seem to be a few plausible possibilities:

(1) ENWorld has become 4th Edition unfriendly in a way similar to Paizo. (This seems unlikely to me given the lengths to which ENWorld has tried to keep itself friendly and open to supporters of all editions.)

(2) 3rd Edition diehards are more likely to vote in this kind of poll because they want to "prove" that 4th Edition isn't being accepted while 4th Edition supporters just don't care as much about the horse race any more.

(3) 4th Edition is meeting with lower acceptance rates among dedicated/engaged/informed gamers.

(4) 4th Edition is failing in the marketplace. (Which is potentially fantastic news for Paizo.)

 

[Edena_of_Neith]

We need the 1,000 votes the first Changeover Poll got.
Then, I can draw upon the results of that poll, and do some comparisons. Not until then.

Nevertheless, the results are there, with the vote so far. I can't explain these results.

I hope that the rest of ENWorld will come to this poll and vote.

 

[Zustiur]

(1) ENWorld has become 4th Edition unfriendly in a way similar to Paizo. (This seems unlikely to me given the lengths to which ENWorld has tried to keep itself friendly and open to supporters of all editions.)

(2) 3rd Edition diehards are more likely to vote in this kind of poll because they want to "prove" that 4th Edition isn't being accepted while 4th Edition supporters just don't care as much about the horse race any more.

(3) 4th Edition is meeting with lower acceptance rates among dedicated/engaged/informed gamers.

(4) 4th Edition is failing in the marketplace. (Which is potentially fantastic news for Paizo.)

I'd argue:
(5) While not being unfriendly to 4E, ENWorld is still a community that formed based on the love of 3E, and that love still holds a lot of us.

This site was created due to 3E, and it stands to reason that many of the people who frequent it are of the appropriate personality/game style/whatever that would continue to prefer 3E rather than something as different as 4E.

 

[Samurai]

We need the 1,000 votes the first Changeover Poll got.
Then, I can draw upon the results of that poll, and do some comparisons. Not until then.

Nevertheless, the results are there, with the vote so far. I can't explain these results.

I hope that the rest of ENWorld will come to this poll and vote.

I really don't think you need 1000 votes. First of all, there's no guarantee that it's the same 1000 people... in fact, it definitely won't be. Second, this poll fails to account for 1 important group... those who were excited about 4e's release and looked at ENWorld when it first came out, and now no longer visit... maybe because they've found another site such as WotC forums, or because they've stopped playing D&D, or some other reason.

It's the percentages that matter most, and at over 650 votes, I think you have enough to draw at least some conclusions. And the fact that 350 fewer people voted in this poll than the identical one right after release is interesting in itself, IMO.

 

[BryonD]

You had to admit - it was worth a shot. I was in an expansive and generous mood in light of the New Year, and I had hoped to gain some insight into what makes BryonD tick.

If you ever decide you have the time or inclination to explain your views, consider my shoulder always open for you to lean your head upon.

WP

I again refer your to hundreds of prior threads, many of which you participated in, in which detailed insight into what makes me tick are provided and my views are explained in great detail. It isn't remotely a secret, its just that I'm no longer motivated to further pound my head against that wall nor to potentially derail threads like this one with the various point by point back and forth that never gets anywhere.

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

(2) 3rd Edition diehards are more likely to vote in this kind of poll because they want to "prove" that 4th Edition isn't being accepted while 4th Edition supporters just don't care as much about the horse race any more.

Uh huh.

(4) 4th Edition is failing in the marketplace. (Which is potentially fantastic news for Paizo.)

D&D failing in the marketplace is not fantastic news for gamers of any stripe, competitors or not.

 

[Filcher]

Running a game is personality thing. The world isn't generic and blase; it reflects you. A game's rules should be the same way: reflective of the Game Master.

The quest for the "searchable PDF with a rule for everything" is a crutch, IMO, separating us from the roots of the game.

I have some GM friends that love this ethos, but that's their D&D, not mine. I'm sure they dislike my "fly by seat of pants/I'll make a rule when I get there," style.

 

[Treebore]

One of the most basic things that go wrong with any poll is when you allow the sample to become non-representative. You're looking at a sample of gamers who (a) choose to participate in online communities; (b) choose to participate in this online community; and (c) choose to participate in this poll.

All of those factors significantly warp the poll. I'm willing to accept that it's a fairly accurate assessment of the mood of the board (although even there the self-selection factor will have a significant impact), but for any wider demographic it's essentially irrelevant.



Uh, no.

First, the people who subscribe to Dungeon and Dragon are a self-selecting subset. Second, the method you're suggesting warps the result towards those who don't move. Finally, the method you're suggesting probably still warps the results to active players (who are more likely to respond to a mail poll like this).

If you wanted better data, you'd perform the type of market research that Ryan Dancey had performed and then released publicly.

Let me re iterate, I worked for two years doing statistics, intensely. Looking in particular at confounds and how to remove them or use a formula to account for them. What you bring up are not confounds, but problems with understanding what confounds really are.

Plus anyone who agrees to answer a poll is self selecting, so by your reasoning all polls are self selecting and invalid, and they aren't.

So people can keep pretending they know and understand statistics, what are confounds, and what makes for valid and invalid survey questions, but I spent two years analyzing such questions, and solving such problems, so I'll stick with what I know to be true.

Believe me, I had similar discussions with people with Masters degrees in Statistical analysis and two with PhD's, so these questions are the same kinds of questions true experts deal with. This is because they tend to strive to make their data as unquestionable as possible, because their professional reputations are on the line.

So the questions and points are good ones to ask/discuss, but ones that have been discussed and worked out by very knowledgeable experts, whose knowledge I benefited from.


So rest assured getting responses from gamers on this forum about RPG's they have "tried out" is just as valid a way to collect such data as any other method of collection. Depending on what kind of data you want, even better, since there appears to be such a high number of people who have been playing a long time, and are DM's. They are "experts" in the field.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

(4) 4th Edition is failing in the marketplace. (Which is potentially fantastic news for Paizo.)

More accurately, 4Ed is failing in the marketplace to convert the established base. From its sales numbers, its doing just fine as a RPG product in and of itself on the force of sales to converts and new blood.