Changeover Poll

[BryonD]

You can have my Giant Space Hamster when you can pry it out of my cold, dead hands!

Have it? Who said I want the thing??!!??

 

[Beginning of the End]

Polls most often use only about 1,000 respondents. Such polls accurately reflected how 230 million people voted last November. Within their +/-3 of error.
That is why statistics is so powerful, you can ask only a few people about a specific question, or set of questions, and it will accurately reflect the opinions/choices of a much larger number.

So 1,000 respondents on ENWorld, who are gamers from across the country, from every demographic that likely exists within the RPG community as a whole, will give worthwhile results.

One of the most basic things that go wrong with any poll is when you allow the sample to become non-representative. You're looking at a sample of gamers who (a) choose to participate in online communities; (b) choose to participate in this online community; and (c) choose to participate in this poll.

All of those factors significantly warp the poll. I'm willing to accept that it's a fairly accurate assessment of the mood of the board (although even there the self-selection factor will have a significant impact), but for any wider demographic it's essentially irrelevant.

The only way we will get better data is if WOTC sends questionaires to every mailing address they ever had for Dungeon and Dragon magazine, to reach players of every edition of D&D.

Uh, no.

First, the people who subscribe to Dungeon and Dragon are a self-selecting subset. Second, the method you're suggesting warps the result towards those who don't move. Finally, the method you're suggesting probably still warps the results to active players (who are more likely to respond to a mail poll like this).

If you wanted better data, you'd perform the type of market research that Ryan Dancey had performed and then released publicly.

 

[Wisdom Penalty]

Nope. Not gonna go down that road for the 400th time.

You had to admit - it was worth a shot. I was in an expansive and generous mood in light of the New Year, and I had hoped to gain some insight into what makes BryonD tick.

If you ever decide you have the time or inclination to explain your views, consider my shoulder always open for you to lean your head upon.

WP

 

[DaveMage]

I hear The Love Boat theme!!!

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

I hear The Love Boat theme!!!

You're gonna need a bigger boat.

 

[Wisdom Penalty]

I hear The Love Boat theme!!!

Dear Bryon -

4E, exciting and new
Come aboard, we're expecting you
Love, life's sweetest reward
Let it flow, it floats back to you...

Love,
WP

 

[merelycompetent]

I voted: Tried 4E, went back to an earlier edition.

I read the previews with relish. I really liked what the designers were talking about - especially making 4E more DM-friendly, and supporting high-level play. I was a little nervous about the warnings that existing campaigns would not be (easily) convertible to 4E, but took a wait-and-see approach.

Then I got the 4E Core Rules, and my jaw hit the floor.

The campaign world that I have worked on through four editions of the game was incompatible with the race and cosmology changes. Some of the class changes, on read-through, would require reworking parts of the campaign setting. There was no conversion available to go from 3.5E to 4E. On top of that, I'd have to wait for certain classes to be published that used to be considered core - such as the Druid. I'd end up re-designing and re-writing too much of my main campaign setting to handle 4E mechanics. As a DM with this campaign world, I am no longer part of WotC's target customer base.

As a player, I'm very open to 4E. I'd love to really take the rules for a test run. As a DM, I'm willing to run some one-shots to really see if the new mechanics work like I think they will. But unless inspiration strikes in a good way, someone else comes up with a usable conversion, or I decide to scrap my main campaign setting, I'm going to just cherry-pick some ideas, and not purchase anything beyond the 4E Core Rules.

Don't get me wrong: 4E looks *cool*. And if I ever scrap my main campaign setting, I'll probably use it (if it's still the main supported edition). But that is not likely to happen soon with characters at only 13th level.

 

[Zustiur]

The campaign world that I have worked on through four editions of the game was incompatible with the race and cosmology changes.

Yes I had that problem too. And I haven't even started the campaign in question. I've been piecing it together a little bit at a time over the last couple of years, while being a player rather than a DM. Several hours into looking at the 4E rulebooks, I knew it just wasn't going to work, so I promptly dropped the idea of using 4E. I could run my game in 0-3.5, but not in 4. Too many sacred cows got shot. The design does not have enough similarity for me.

 

[El Mahdi]

Polls most often use only about 1,000 respondents. Such polls accurately reflected how 230 million people voted last November. Within their +/-3 of error.
That is why statistics is so powerful, you can ask only a few people about a specific question, or set of questions, and it will accurately reflect the opinions/choices of a much larger number.

So 1,000 respondents on ENWorld, who are gamers from across the country, from every demographic that likely exists within the RPG community as a whole, will give worthwhile results.

Even if most of them are DM's, those DM's do have a good feeling for what their groups feelings are.

So this poll is a solid indicator. Could a better one be formulated? Definitely. However this information does reflect the general RPG gamer population, its accuracy may be high or low, but it will have a degree of accuracy, and that accuracy is identifiable once the formula's are applied.

So even if the accuracy is only +/- 10% it is still meaningful, just less so than polls where accuracy of +/- 3% are achievable.

So if I was to go for a better poll I would like better demographic information, such as age, income levels, marital status, etc... However, that data would be for things beyond the question of this poll, such as possible financial implications on purchasing habits.

This poll is a very good indicator of the base question, how many gamers play 4E D&D in comparison to some other form of D&D. WOTC would like to have everyone voting in this poll to vote for 4E, the fact that so many don't does tell them something meaningful, they aren't grabbing the hard core long term buying gamers like they would like too. The "serious gamer" is the group that the vast majority of their long term purchases come from, not the casual gaming community. ENWorld is definitely reflective of the serious portion of the RPG community as a whole.

No, this poll would not be as valid on the WOTC boards. Presumably everyone there are fans of 4E, or the vast majority is. Same situation at PAizo, 3E fans are likely predominant on the Paizo boards. Here, and at other boards like RPG.net, you have gamers of all types, who don't play only "X" game or edition. So this board is the best place to get as broad a range of respondents as possible.

The only way we will get better data is if WOTC sends questionaires to every mailing address they ever had for Dungeon and Dragon magazine, to reach players of every edition of D&D. Putting it in their 4E books won't work, you'll only get responses from people who play/like 4E or hate it. Hardly anything in between.

So ENWorld is a very good pool of people to poll.

Read_This

 

[Edena_of_Neith]

651 votes.

33% Changeover
56% No Changeover
11% Partial Changeover