Expertise justification?

[KarinsDad]

So can you or anyone else truly put forth the math to justify this at level 5?

It's a bit subjective, especially with the way that treasure packets are handed out. One PC can get a +1 item at level 1 and another at level 4. However, for sake of discussion, I tend to put the weapons as +1 more at the beginning of levels 3, 6, 11, 16, 21, 26 (this is bottom heavy due to the fact that the PCs start acquiring +1 items right away). In other words, a +1 weapon is sometimes found somewhere during level 1 or 2 for many PCs, but they often have one by the beginning of level 3 (on average, we have to put the number somewhere, e.g. in our campaign following the DMG treasure distribution where the PCs just made level 3, 4 out of 6 have a +1 weapon, the fifth is about to gain one and the last PC will during this level gain a +2 weapon).

Against a monster that is level +14 AC, a +3 proficiency weapon, and an 18 starting stat, this results in the following numbers to hit at the various levels (and the number with the feat):

1   8  8
2   8  8
3   8  8
4   8  8
5   9  8
6   8  7
7   9  8
8   8  7
9   9  8
10  9  8
11  9  8
12  9  8
13 10  9
14  9  8
15 10  8
16  9  7
17 10  8
18 10  8
19 11  9
20 11  9
21 10  8
22 10  8
23 11  9
24 11  9
25 12  9
26 11  8
27 12  9
28 11  8
29 12  9
30 12  9

Yes, the chance to hit drop starts around level 5, but it does not become a significant issue until maybe level 13.

But unlike Nail, I do not think the players really notice this until mid-paragon levels. A simple variable like a monster one level higher is enough to raise the number.

On the other hand, the feat smoothes out the curve significantly and puts the average over the levels at 8.3.

 

[blargney the second]

I'm going to try a different tack here: let your players take the feat if they feel like it, but tell them that it's on probation. If you find that it lowers anyone's enjoyment, get rid of it.

It's like the retraining rules as applied to your game - try something out for a level or two then ditch it if it sucks.
-blarg

 

[mach1.9pants]

Nm.

 

[chaotix42]

I'm going to try a different tack here: let your players take the feat if they feel like it, but tell them that it's on probation. If you find that it lowers anyone's enjoyment, get rid of it.

It's like the retraining rules as applied to your game - try something out for a level or two then ditch it if it sucks.
-blarg

Exactly what I did with our group & the BR fighter build. We're doing the same with Expertise and so far everything is fine. 3/5 people have the feat and so far the effect hasn't been that noticeable. The group is also only 14th level; Expertise has yet to really hit its stride! I don't think it will be much longer before 4/5 players have it - the halfling rogue might never take it. We'll see though, since I plan on getting to 30th lvl.

 

[ForbidenMaster]

EDITED: As per Nails post below

I think we can all agree that the whole point of the expertise and magic item progression is so that we have an even growth in power as possible. The goal then is to try to manipulate the system in such a way as to get that even progression. Assuming my math is correct, I think the process below is the most effective way of getting an even power progression. Therefor, any deviation from this will result in a relatively over powered or under powered character. Use it as you will, but in the end I think one thing is clear, assuming no other reliable outside bonus to hit, expertise is definitely needed,

Heroic

Average Monster AC = 14+Level
Average PC Attack Bonus = Mod+Proficiency+1/2 level+Magic+Expertise

Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 1:

4+2+0+0+0=6 vs. 15=14+1

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 2:

4+2+1+0+0=7 vs. 16=14+2

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 3:

4+2+1+[B]1[/B]+0=8 vs. 17=14+3

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 4:

4+2+2+1+0=9 vs. 18=14+4

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 5:

4+2+2+1+[B]1[/B]=10 vs. 19=14+5

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 6:

4+2+3+1+1=11 vs. 20=14+6

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 7:

4+2+3+[B]2[/B]+1=12 vs. 21=14+7

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 8:

[B]5[/B]+2+4+2+1=14 vs. 22=14+8

Chance to hit = 65%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 9:

5+2+4+2+1=14 vs. 23=14+9

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 10:

5+2+5+2+1=15 vs. 24=14+10

Chance to hit = 60%

So it seems like there is a lot less swing if you give the players a better magic item at levels 3 and 7, but in order to maintain a 60% chance to hit it is still best to give the players expertise at level 5. Alternatively you could give the players a better magic item at level 5 instead of 7 and take expertise by level 7, but I think its clear that expertise is needed.


Paragon

Average Monster AC = 14+Level
Average PC Attack Bonus = Mod+Proficiency+1/2 level+Magic+Expertice

Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 11:

5+2+5+[B]3[/B]+1=16 vs. 25=14+11

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 12:

5+2+6+3+1=17 vs. 26=14+12

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 13:

5+2+6+3+1=17 vs. 27=14+13

Chance to hit = 55%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 14:

[B]6[/B]+2+7+3+1=19 vs. 28=14+14

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 15:

6+2+7+3+[B]2[/B]=20 vs. 29=14+15

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 16:

6+2+8+3+2=21 vs. 30=14+16

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 17:

6+2+8+[B]4[/B]+2=22 vs. 31=14+17

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 18:

6+2+9+4+2=23 vs. 32=14+18

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 19:

6+2+9+[B]5[/B]+2=24 vs. 33=14+19

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 20:

6+2+10+5+2=25 vs. 34=14+20

Chance to hit = 60%

So this time a new magic item at level 11, 17, and 19 along with the bonus from expertise help balance every thing out most of the way.


Epic

Average Monster AC = 14+Level
Average PC Attack Bonus = Mod+Proficiency+1/2 level+Magic+Expertice

Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 21:

[B]7[/B]+2+10+5+2=26 vs. 35=14+21

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 22:

7+2+11+5+2=27 vs. 36=14+22

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 23:

7+2+11+[B]6[/B]+2=28 vs. 37=14+23

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 24:

7+2+12+6+2=29 vs. 38=14+24

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 25:

7+2+12+6+[B]3[/B]=30 vs. 39=14+25

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 26:

7+2+13+6+3=31 vs. 40=14+26

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 27:

7+2+13+6+3=31 vs. 41=14+27

Chance to hit = 55%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 28:

[B]8[/B]+2+14+6+3=33 vs. 42=14+28

Chance to hit = 60%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 29:

8+2+14+6+3=33 vs. 43=14+29

Chance to hit = 55%


Assumed PC attack vs average monster AC at level 30:

8+2+15+6+3=34 vs. 44=14+30

Chance to hit = 55%

Since we gave out the +5 magic weapon in paragon we only have the +6 weapon at 23, plus the boost from expertise at 25, but as you can see the progression is pretty even.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

Hey GM4PGs I agree with you entirely that there is no consensus at all. However FIFY is not really the 'done thing' on ENW.

ok I appologize that might have been over the top...


now back to the topic at hand...

lets assume that the book is balanced for a 16 attack stat and a +2 prof weapon Vs AC, or a 16 att stat alone Vs Nads...Anything else is Bonus...
Now I am going to take the DMG info on monster building...everything for standard monsters AC lie between Level+12 and L+14...and NADS Level +12...to make an elite is +2 to three...and solo is another +2 to three...

Level 1
+5 Vs AC 13-16...need 8-11
+3 Vs NADs 13... need 10

Level 11
+3 magic... +1-2 att stat (+3 to the stat) +5 level
+14-15 Vs AC 23-25 need 8-11
+12 Vs NADs 23...need 11

level 30
+30 Vs AC 42-44 need 12-14
+28 Vs NADs 42 need 14

now assuming that between controlers and defenders giving penilties, and leaders giving bonuses, and getting combat advantage... it basicly come down to the same (Higher level has more powers that do better)

in a vacume you see it as getting harder....

lets add in 3 magic item daily's instead of 1, and just plain more magic items that do things (give bonuss apply penlties give rerolls)
Also more dily powers...at level 1 you have 1 daily...at level 30 you have 4. more or less you get to blow a daily in every encounter at epic in my experance (Remember most still do thing even if you miss) that is a big jump in power
Also (in theory) your group gets better at working togather. at level 1 or 2 you start to learn your at wills...at level 28 you should be pretty use to your partners and able to help them set up good combos...

 

[ForbidenMaster]

[...]

in a vacume you see it as getting harder....

lets add in 3 magic item daily's instead of 1, and just plain more magic items that do things (give bonuss apply penlties give rerolls)
Also more dily powers...at level 1 you have 1 daily...at level 30 you have 4. more or less you get to blow a daily in every encounter at epic in my experance (Remember most still do thing even if you miss) that is a big jump in power
Also (in theory) your group gets better at working togather. at level 1 or 2 you start to learn your at wills...at level 28 you should be pretty use to your partners and able to help them set up good combos...

And all of this and more are why math will never be the be all end all to this question. There are just too many variables. If you have any reliable external bonus to hit, like a leader who has invested in bonuses to hit so that he can reliably deliver buffs to hit, or even just powers that give a bonus no matter the outcome of the attack, my entire post above is going to be off by whatever amount that bonus is. So you really could do without expertise, you just need some other reliable source of attack bonus.


PS. But then again, if a bonus is only getting you to where you should be, is it really a bonus? I think an argument can be made that buffs are better buffs when you are already at that 55% chance to hit.

 

[KarinsDad]

lets add in 3 magic item daily's instead of 1, and just plain more magic items that do things (give bonuss apply penlties give rerolls)
Also more dily powers...at level 1 you have 1 daily...at level 30 you have 4. more or less you get to blow a daily in every encounter at epic in my experance (Remember most still do thing even if you miss) that is a big jump in power
Also (in theory) your group gets better at working togather. at level 1 or 2 you start to learn your at wills...at level 28 you should be pretty use to your partners and able to help them set up good combos...

You are forgetting that the monsters too have powers and "good combos". As one gets higher level, the foes start getting Auras and more Ongoing damage mechanisms and ways to boost allies and ways to hamper enemies with debuffs or conditions.

And many of the buff powers of players are based on hitting in the first place. So sure, the 20th level Cleric could use Righteous Brand to give a +5 bonus to the Fighter to hit the foe, that is if the Cleric could hit the foe.

Additionally, higher level monsters have a relatively larger number of hit points than the PCs. Level one standard monsters have an average of 29 hit points. This is slightly higher than what PCs have at first level (~25). Level 18 standard monsters have an average of 163 hit points (compared to PCs at ~112). 5.6 times as many hit points at level 18 as at level 1 for the monsters, but the PCs are not doing 5.6 times as much damage per attack.

What this means is that when the players hit less often and their attacks average a much lower percentage of total monster hit points per successful hit, the encounter lasts longer. It does not matter how many encounter and daily powers the players have. Those powers do not do enough extra damage over At Wills to shorten the encounter by this ratio. Not even close. Throwing a lower chance to hit on top of that just makes it worse.

This makes many encounter and daily powers that have a condition that lasts until the end of the attackers next turn or lasts until a save is made a lot LESS helpful relatively speaking. If an encounter power dazes a foe for 1 round out of 8 total in the encounter at low level and 1 round out of 15 total in the encounter at high level, it is a lot less effective at higher levels.

And many buff and debuff powers last for only a round as well.


Bottom line, the theory that the synergies of powers make up for the math deficit is totally flawed and not supportable.

The synergies do allow the PCs to survive. More options = more situations that can be handled. But, the length (and hence grindiness) of encounters is much greater at higher levels due to monster hit points and PC math issues. Math 101.

 

[chaotix42]

The synergies do allow the PCs to survive. More options = more situations that can be handled. But, the length (and hence grindiness) of encounters is much greater at higher levels due to monster hit points and PC math issues. Math 101.

I've DMed for a group from levels 1 through 14 and I have not noticed an increase in combat length (yet). On average combats require fewer rounds, actually. Combats took roughly 10 rounds, and then once the PCs hit paragon level they rarely go beyond 8 rounds. Experience 101.

*note* I think we have different professors.

 

[Ryujin]

Just wondering: Are all the people who don't think of the Expertise feats as stealth eratta presuming characters are optimized?