Windjammer
Adventurer
(My edit came 5 minutes too late! I kept editing my post, and just saw now that you've responded in the mean time. 
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)
As long as we are talking hypothetically...
- Thread starter thecasualoblivion
- Start date
A better question is how many kids/young people these days even know about 3.5E in the first place. For any game to maintain some static popularity, it requires an influx of newcomers to replace some of the people who have left.
Jack99
Adventurer
You really think Pathfinder will have that many players? I guess it depends on how big (or rather small) you think the 3.x community is, but still?
The 3.X community is still pretty big. Pathfinder's advantage lays in how close its mechanics are to the source material- I can easily see it passing up other quality 3PP D20 derived FRPGs for that reason alone.
thecasualoblivion
First Post
Call it a high estimate.
Herremann the Wise
First Post
1. I don't see 4E lasting up to 10 years. While it plays differently to 3.x, it is still heavily derived from 3.x with the powers system (and all it's issues good and bad) grafted on. There is little new that can be crafted for the system except recreating and re-interpreting what has gone before in its new 4E guise. Simplicity and elegance are good design goals but I'm not sure they will inspire the longevity required to string the game out year after year. As such, the likelihood and even existence of 5E is not 100% certain for me. I would not be surprised to see a change of official hands being required to spur on the next edition of the game.
2. & 3. I can see Pathfinder and 3.5 effectively coalescing in a year or two's time in terms of its player base. I think the fans are hardcore enough to keep a continuing but albeit minor presence in the market. 3.5 will steadily dwindle to the point where the two cannot help but cross paths and most likely join ever-decreasing forces.
4. Most likely.
5...
I can see the overall market steadily dwindling as computer games become even more the staple while pen and paper get left further and further behind. The fracturing of the dominant 3.x community by the eventual presentation of 4E just over a year ago will be seen as the potential dooming of the game. While both forms of the game have its devotees, it cannot be denied that the dividing of the community has lessened the games overall momentum... and that to me is a real shame.
Best Regards
Herremann the Wise
2. & 3. I can see Pathfinder and 3.5 effectively coalescing in a year or two's time in terms of its player base. I think the fans are hardcore enough to keep a continuing but albeit minor presence in the market. 3.5 will steadily dwindle to the point where the two cannot help but cross paths and most likely join ever-decreasing forces.
4. Most likely.
5...
I can see the overall market steadily dwindling as computer games become even more the staple while pen and paper get left further and further behind. The fracturing of the dominant 3.x community by the eventual presentation of 4E just over a year ago will be seen as the potential dooming of the game. While both forms of the game have its devotees, it cannot be denied that the dividing of the community has lessened the games overall momentum... and that to me is a real shame.
Best Regards
Herremann the Wise
thecasualoblivion
First Post
You know, I don't buy this. AD&D 1E/2E lasted from 1977-2000 with less mechanical variety than what is contained in the 4E PHB.
OTOH I was thinking exactly this regarding your 8-10 years of life time of 4e. I would rather put that in 5 years.
As far as how Pathfinder goes it has as much to do with the numbers of loyal fans as the cash these loyal fans are willing to give. Plus the production costs or what have you.
Another thing to consider: if D&D loses strategic value (ie novels sell less and less) and brand power we do not know if Hasbro will justify risks to keep D&D in development or try to find a sweet deal to sell it to someone that may think he could resurrect it in market due. It could be anyone from Microsoft to Nintendo. And this is important because right now some amount of investment is noticeable. I am not sure if it is in the millions Scott is talking about but if people perceive a considerable decline in investment the value of the brand name will suffer a lot.
That depends on if they are retaining enough old guard, and conversely, converting new players who will stick with the game-or wil it be like game workshop new converts that they only retain them for 18 months....
Herremann the Wise
First Post
It's only my opinion so you can take it or leave it.
However, I think the mentality of gaming has dramatically changed since this time you mention. By this I mean the expectations one hopes or wishes for from the game. People simply expect more nowadays. Traipsing over and regurgitating permutations of the same stuff will be more quickly devoured by the ever more hungry and demanding gaming community. The problem is, the more the game expands, the thinner becomes its gravitational pull. Do you end up with a situation at the end of 2E where expansionism produced an eventual collapse or can the band of gamers power through this long enough to welcome in a new edition without even further fracturing the community.
Overarching all of this is how people spend their time. People are busier and in particular young people are busier. Is there too much competition from other computer-related sources to keep a good steady inflow of motivated but new gamers? Unfortunately, I cannot help but think that the supply is dwindling.
Best Regards
Herremann the Wise
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