I am of a totally different opinion. I believe the more 4e goes on the harder will be to make new interesting things cause it was designed to be a focused and balanced game around a strictly limited arena of gameplay. I mean gameplay wont change much unless you are so much into mechanics that where you find interest is in the mechanical changes or rather mastering the subtle mechanical changes each new product may provide.
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NOW LIVE! Into the Woods--new character species, eerie monsters, and haunting villains to populate the woodlands of your D&D games.
As long as we are talking hypothetically...
- Thread starter thecasualoblivion
- Start date
I am of a totally different opinion. I believe the more 4e goes on the harder will be to make new interesting things cause it was designed to be a focused and balanced game around a strictly limited arena of gameplay. I mean gameplay wont change much unless you are so much into mechanics that where you find interest is in the mechanical changes or rather mastering the subtle mechanical changes each new product may provide.
I don't believe that the success/failure of DnD the game has much effect on the success/failure of DnD the merchandising. I'd expect the majority of the people who read the novels (and potentially even play the associated CRPGs) do not also play the game. I expect WotC could continue turning a pretty nice profit shelving the game entirely and just continuing with just the novels. This would make me a very, very, sad Caliber, but there it is.
Personally I don't read any D&D novels.
I remember back in high school, some people did read the Dragonlance novels who were not gamers at all. Even to this day, many of these same people I knew from back then, still don't play any tabletop RPGs. The only RPGs they have played over the years, were mostly MMORPGs like Everquest and WoW.
I am not sure about this. 4e tabletop for example was marketed on the crpg front. Sites like gamespy carried articles on 4e. These people have noted the tabletop. They know about the existence and the fan base of tabletop D&D and thus they make the connection to the D&D merchandise -I would dare say that today through this kind of exposure they do identify the D&D merchandise. Games like Baldur's Gate and Neverwinter Nights helped a lot and help a lot to keep the D&D name relevant. But the more we go to the future, the more things seem harder. 4e has not managed to produce some big video game title. If it totally fails to do so after 5 years D&D awareness will be even less in the target market for example. Also I am of the impression that novels are not what they used to be. And losing their momentum as a series could totally kill them in less time than 3 years. Furthermore a decline like this could be really damaging for a potential resurrection. But I might be doomsaying here. The fact though is that the entertainment market is up for some major shake ups. Someone on a recent thread mentioned the fact that the consumer base is breaking on more fronts, each one a following after a specilized niche. I am not sure how this may condition the overall functionality of the market trends. At times like these making good product for as many people as possible seems imperative for the long term if you want to be a leader. Cattering to a broken front will buy you some time, but if you do not focus in leading you might find yourself squashed by the competitive forces after some time.
Storminator
First Post
If DDi does well enough, 4e won't even need to develop more books to be successful. I will maintain my subscription basically forever, just to have the compendium. Enough people like me, and the business is sustainable without ever putting out another book (and that's a nice cost structure!)
PS
PS
I'd expect RPG hobby to end up more like the model train one sooner rather than later. Specialized and not that large in comparison to other hobbies....
BryonD
Hero
Is this not true of any game (including 4E and 3E as well)?
At the risk of sounding like schoolyard rebuttals, I honestly think the causal gamer base that 4E appeals to will make its decline more pronounced than average. But that aside, all games dwindle over time.
As to recruiting, I truly believe a notable fraction of newly recruited 4E players will use it as a gateway to more detailed games. This fraction will likely be somewhat comparable to the fraction of current players who find 4E not up to their preference. And a brand new player who discovers PF for the first time is no less likely to think it is a great choice than a new player was to 3E 8 years ago.
Both 4E and PF will see declines over time.
4E will continue to benefit from having the D&D name on its cover and will continue to outsell PF by better than an order of magnitude.
As a percentage, PF sales year over year will hold up better than 4E.
BryonD
Hero
Exactly correct. 4E is designed so that the math works. And everything new must comply with the boundaries of that math.
If this is what WotC ends up doing, then it will probably be the end of the line for me.
I only use dead tree books for all my tabletop rpg games. I have no interest in digital services like DDI, nor do I buy any PDF books.
Dice4Hire
First Post
Well, I think 4E wioll stay on top, for the reason it is the face of the hobby for new players. It is in bookstores and gaming shops. A lot of people play it, and it is shiny and new.
I see Pathfinder like I see Iron Kingdoms nad other 4rd party rulesets in 3.X. They will ahve soem dedicated fans, but instead of doing work that is of direct benefit to 3.5 people, it is a bit off toteh side, a bit hard to convert and use. And that will limit them, and there will be a 3.5 rift with WOTC 3.5 on one side and Pathfinder 3.75 on another. That will hurt Pathfinder. Still, it will probably hurt them less than a total new system, which would be an utter failure, in my opinion. The bottom line is Pathfinder is not 3.5.
WOTC has done a good job of driving 3pp from 4E, and will probably continue to do so. Thus ther ewill be fewer places making up stuff for current gamers. Maybe if the current 3.5 crowd gets mroe vocal and supportive of people making product for them, it will change, but I jsut am not seeing it, and have not seen it in the last year. I play 3.5, and I have seen nothing come out that i would seriously consider buying.
I see Pathfinder like I see Iron Kingdoms nad other 4rd party rulesets in 3.X. They will ahve soem dedicated fans, but instead of doing work that is of direct benefit to 3.5 people, it is a bit off toteh side, a bit hard to convert and use. And that will limit them, and there will be a 3.5 rift with WOTC 3.5 on one side and Pathfinder 3.75 on another. That will hurt Pathfinder. Still, it will probably hurt them less than a total new system, which would be an utter failure, in my opinion. The bottom line is Pathfinder is not 3.5.
WOTC has done a good job of driving 3pp from 4E, and will probably continue to do so. Thus ther ewill be fewer places making up stuff for current gamers. Maybe if the current 3.5 crowd gets mroe vocal and supportive of people making product for them, it will change, but I jsut am not seeing it, and have not seen it in the last year. I play 3.5, and I have seen nothing come out that i would seriously consider buying.
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