First... How do you know what the maximum damage roll is for damage? We weren't talking about falling, we were talking about an attack. Also what about the massive damage rule?? You still have a chance of dying outright.
It depends on the attack. But you know that a crossbow does 1d8, for example.
Beyond that, pemerton's sentence you quoted is:
"The point remains the same: the player knows that the next hit will disable him/her (or, at high levels, where minimum damage is more than 10, knows that the next hit will kill him/her). Whereas the PC can't know this."
He is talking about a character that knows the next hit will disable him, not that the next hit *wont*. So you, the player, know that your fighter with 1hp left is going to be disabled in the next hit. The character has no way to know that.
Second...no, go back and read my previuous posts in the thread. In 3.0 you're not dead at 0 hit points... you are disabled... there are actually conditional steps with penalties in 3.0 that lead to death.
I'll post again the sentence you quoted from pemerton.
"The point remains the same: the player knows that the next hit will
disable him/her (or, at high levels, where minimum damage is more than 10, knows that the next hit will kill him/her). Whereas the PC can't know this."
Emphasis added. I don't see any difference between the player knowing he is going to die, or the player knowing he is going to be disabled. The dissociated mechanic is that the player knows it, but the character does not.
Third... you are now getting into the realm of how someone chooses to play which is not indicative of the mechanic but of the playstyle of the individual. A player can choose to avoid an OA because he is at 1 hp (metagaming), but that is a playstyle choice and the mechanic isn't forcing that type of action on him. On the other hand he could just as easily choose to take the OA because he and his character think they are that lucky... or because his paladin would never be that cowardly.
No mechanic forces you do anything, ever, in any game or edition. They give you incentives do to so, though. The paladin might take that OA, but maybe he later take a full rest to recover his HP. That's a metagame decision too. The character can run, and jump, and fight. It's the player (or the group) the ones that are opting to rest and recover, because 1hp means he will probably fall.
Other example: that valiant paladin, a few encounters before, jump from a bridge, taking 2d6 damage, to hit a goblin and save his fellow wizard mate. He did so, because he is not a coward, and it was the right thing to do as a Paladin. If the Paladin would had 1hp left... do you think the player would had done the same? Would had he jump from the bridge, knowing that he'll take 2d6 damage automatically, and his character would automatically be lying in the floor, unconscious, dying and unable to attack the goblin and help his fellow wizard? If not... why not? Why did the Paladin jump to do a heroic feat when he was 20 hp left, but wouldn't when he had 1 hp left and the player (not the paladin, the player) knew it would be an automatic failure?