I'd like to see a starter that looks a lot like the BECMI red box, but still encourages buyers to later go out and pick up the three core rulebooks. ...
The old Red Box definitely encouraged people to go buy AD&D. If they make a starter set of that quality, and manage to leverage it to the same effect, they can afford to take a loss on it. I think they are likely to go that route--put as much as they can into that $20 set, or maybe even a bit more, and expect it to do heavy recruitment for them.
Of the vast number number of people who bought the Red Box and went on to buy AD&D, or even the Rules Cyclopedia, I doubt there were many complaining that they wasted money on the boxed set first. I hope WotC is thinking along those lines. Given the amount of examination of the history of the game that I get the impression they've been doing while creating this edition, I wouldn't be at all surprised if they are.
If this product is /not/ Tyranny of Dragons...
Random Tyranny of Dragons question: Did they say that it would be a specific product, rather than a product theme? For some reason I just assumed it would be a focus direction for "the transmedia D&D stuff we're going to be doing next."
If the information is correct, the gap between the release of the PHB and the DMG seems very large. I wonder why they would do that?
I don't wonder at all. The DMG is not as far along in development as the PHB. Mike was recently asking on Twitter what sorts of questions we'd like answered in the DMG, in such a way as to be obvious that he had room to create entirely new material and put it in their--at least as it refers to DM advice. At the same time we were being told the game was 90%+ complete.
The "game" could refer merely to the PHB. Or it could be that the PHB was 99.9999999%, the MM was 98% complete, and the DMG was 80% complete. From the way they talked about fine tuning and bug-squashing, with minor math in the MM as the example, I wouldn't even be surprised if the MM were almost complete. One of the trade show leaks told us there were are lot of magic items and a lot of art to go with them. It's quite possible that the crunch in the DMG is almost done also.
It's quite possible that the last thing they are going to finish is DMing advice, and hence the DMG. That's probably a good thing. Get the rules out the design study, and then let the guys focus on making the best DM advice, world creation advice, etc, that they can.