D&D and the rising pandemic

[Zardnaar]

Today's New York Times has an article on a 100 page US government plan that was leaked to them. The plan anticipates that during the next 18 months there will be several waves of outbreaks. So, they way I read that, we'll have 2 or 3 months of lockdown, then 2 or 3 months of normal life, then lockdown again, then normal life, etc. It won't necessarily be global like what we're experiencing now but regional as we get better at tracking and containing early.

That's what proponents of the herd plan were proposing.

Netherlands might be going down that path. More dead now vs more dead later. Either way more dead.

 

[Umbran]

In the war years they did calculate how many would die in this situation vs that one.

Standard if living went up for the majority of the population in the war years in a lot if countries. Rationing improved the diets.

Rationing is what you do when everyone has a job, but you need to shunt resources away from the people.

Depression is where people don't have jobs, and can't buy goods, even if they exist.

We are not currently faced with a lack of goods for the people. But, if isolation continues, small businesses (like bars not being allowed to open, small retail which doesn't get foot traffic, and so on) fold - they can't pay rent on their shops or their payroll if they have no income. And small businesses comprise 40%+ of payroll dollars in the US.

Then, the employees of those businesses can't pay their rents/mortgages or for other goods. That impacts the large business, as we stop buying cars, and TVs, and taking vacations. And all those folks depending on the stock market for their livelihoods and retirements have issues... and then you wind up in major recession or depression.

A couple months of this we can withstand. Maybe a shot in the arm to cover small business rent, and the like, and we quickly recover. But over year is a different kind of beast.

 

[NotAYakk]

You may have listed this elsewhere, but... cite?

Last I saw, it has a doubling time of 3 to 6 days. That's 2x to 4x per week, not 10x.

The daily growth in the west is about 33% per day.

Coronavirus, a Visual Rundown – The Process 080

We’re seeing a lot of visual to help explain what’s going on. Here’s the main stuff: what it is, who is affected, the spread, and what we can do.

flowingdata.com

So you can see it exceeding 33% d/d growth. 10x in 7 days is 39% d/d growth. 33% is 10x every 8 days.

Thus "as covid-19 can". 10x in a week is only slightly faster than the floor of what western democracies have been experiencing without social distancing.

 

[Umbran]

The daily growth in the west is about 33% per day.

Okay, so, doing some reading, there's a lot of confounding surrounding testing rates, and whether you are measuring known cases, or estimated cases in the population. Those two numbers are only very similar if you have a high testing rate, which no Western country really has yet, it seems.

 

[Zardnaar]

Rationing is what you do when everyone has a job, but you need to shunt resources away from the people.

Depression is where people don't have jobs, and can't buy goods, even if they exist.

We are not currently faced with a lack of goods for the people. But, if isolation continues, small businesses (like bars not being allowed to open, small retail which doesn't get foot traffic, and so on) fold - they can't pay rent on their shops or their payroll if they have no income. And small businesses comprise 40%+ of payroll dollars in the US.

Then, the employees of those businesses can't pay their rents/mortgages or for other goods. That impacts the large business, as we stop buying cars, and TVs, and taking vacations. And all those folks depending on the stock market for their livelihoods and retirements have issues... and then you wind up in major recession or depression.

A couple months of this we can withstand. Maybe a shot in the arm to cover small business rent, and the like, and we quickly recover. But over year is a different kind of beast.

Nope they'll open things up and you take your chances.

A lot of our depression era stuff got turned into camping grounds and scout camps.

There's a small town near where I grew up. Can fit 5000 people permanent population is under 1000.

Stayed in an old workman's camp from the 30s there. It was a bit rough but kinda fun. It's not up to modern standards and probably a fire hazard but they were technically allowed to run it as a camping ground.

I've been reading up and watching videos on how things used to be done including the Soviet Union and the wartime economies.

The resources are still there, how they move them round us going to be key.

 

[Umbran]

Nope they'll open things up and you take your chances.

As I said - if the cure is as bad as the disease, you don't take the cure.

A lot of our depression era stuff got turned into camping grounds and scout camps.

Which are very much NOT self-isolating situations.

That's the problem with the long-term isolation solution - we can isolate only as long as the people have food, and safe, clean separate housing for small groups - that requires significant levels of economic activity that we dont' have if we are isolated. So, isolation is self-limiting.

If people lose the housing and food security, you lose the isolation, and the virus gets everyone anyway. What, then, was the point?

 

[Zardnaar]

Well my toilet paper bunker is looking anemic and I've discovered a few things.

1. OSR is correct keeping track of ammunition is important. Keeping track of your bow is also important. Hand crossbow in each hand doesn't work.

2. Pathfinder is the superior option in the Corona zombie apocalypse. Since I can't find my bow making do with improvised weapons in my TP bunker.

I think I can hollow it out and make a petrol bomb. 5E just not thick enough.

A 5.5 release with some arrows included for larping would be nice. Mearls get to it.

I'ma commoner with expertise in D&D lore how many hp dies a zombie have? Aww crap.

 

[Zardnaar]

As I said - if the cure is as bad as the disease, you don't take the cure.



Which are very much NOT self-isolating situations.

That's the problem with the long-term isolation solution - we can isolate only as long as the people have food, and safe, clean separate housing for small groups - that requires significant levels of economic activity that we dont' have if we are isolated. So, isolation is self-limiting.

If people lose the housing and food security, you lose the isolation, and the virus gets everyone anyway. What, then, was the point?

Well hopefully it burns itself out. We're basically kicking the can down the street and hoping for the best.

To early to say yet. Fund out in a few weeks.

 

[Oofta]

Well hopefully it burns itself out. We're basically kicking the can down the street and hoping for the best.

To early to say yet. Fund out in a few weeks.

Unfortunately kicking the can down the road and slowing down the rate of infection to the level that hospitals can handle may be the best we can hope for now. Containment may have been an option at one point but it is no longer.

 

[Zardnaar]

Unfortunately kicking the can down the road and slowing down the rate of infection to the level that hospitals can handle may be the best we can hope for now. Containment may have been an option at one point but it is no longer.

Yeah it's the best of a lot of bad options.

Scary when the herd plan is second best option.

Bad, worse, awful. Pick one.