D&D and the rising pandemic

[The Green Hermit]

My county finally has enough test kits that anybody showing symptoms can schedule a test at the weekly drive-thru sites. First responders, people that work in a hospital, and those in the at-risk categories still get priority, though, of course.

Of course, part of this excess of kits may be because we have no confirmed cases yet -- except for the guy with a home address here, even though he has been out of state for months. We only count him, because the state tells us we have to, even if he is STILL out of state.

 

[tomBitonti]

In other discussions over the years, I made the observation that there’s a lot of fiction that is set in semi-utopian societies- sometimes they’re even post-scarcity.

You never see fiction set in the transition from what we have now to the societies they posit.

Over the past 20 years, we’ve been seeing the rise of technology that would seem to point in the directions the futurists are predicting. In 2012, a robotics company unveiled a prototype modular manufacturing robot that could do 200 different tasks, for the same projected 5 year cost as an Indonesian factory worker.

We’re seeing bigger, longer tests of autonomous automobiles hit the road.

On the computing side, AI programs have gotten to be 60% as good at diagnosing illnesses as actual MDs, according to a couple of studies,

And those companies surely weren’t the only ones with projects like that in the works.

So my guess is we’re going to see the acceleration of technology eliminating the need to work in centralized locations AND outright eliminating jobs. IOW, I really think we’re at the dawn of that transitional period nobody ever talks about, and Covid-19 is the catalyst.

This seems likely. I'll have to think through what I've read to tell which have depicted transitions which aren't completely catastrophic (e.g., Lucifer's Hammer describes a transition, but one which is a total catastrophe).

Maybe history is a reasonable guide? Any of a number of technologies as well as natural events were very disruptive and caused massive economic shifts. Is there a difference in how quickly the transition will play out?

If Covid-19 is the catalyst for a transition, we should expect large disruptions as workers are shifted from obsolete areas to new necessary areas. There remains a big unknown, which is how to do work which requires interaction. How does one get a hair cut? Or do maid service? What happens to workers in worker-dense industries such as poultry or pork processing?

And, there seems to be an even greater trend towards inequality. Social distancing is much harder for folks who have poor connectivity (the digital divide). And I imagine Covid-19 outcomes are much better for folks who can afford better health care. I can imagine the poorer segment of society being left to whether the virus as best they can, with some surviving, and others not.

Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

It doesn't really go into the social or economic ramifications, but here's an article that discusses some modeling of future Covid-19 outbreaks as it relates to immunity (or lack thereof).

New model looks at what might happen if SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay

If it’s like related viruses, it could cause seasonal outbreaks for years.

arstechnica.com

The "worst case" implications are not especially rosy.

 

[Azzy]

In other discussions over the years, I made the observation that there’s a lot of fiction that is set in semi-utopian societies- sometimes they’re even post-scarcity.

You never see fiction set in the transition from what we have now to the societies they posit.

Star Trek Deep Space nine touched on this with the Bell Riots.

Over the past 20 years, we’ve been seeing the rise of technology that would seem to point in the directions the futurists are predicting. In 2012, a robotics company unveiled a prototype modular manufacturing robot that could do 200 different tasks, for the same projected 5 year cost as an Indonesian factory worker.

We’re seeing bigger, longer tests of autonomous automobiles hit the road.

On the computing side, AI programs have gotten to be 60% as good at diagnosing illnesses as actual MDs, according to a couple of studies,

And those companies surely weren’t the only ones with projects like that in the works.

So my guess is we’re going to see the acceleration of technology eliminating the need to work in centralized locations AND outright eliminating jobs. IOW, I really think we’re at the dawn of that transitional period nobody ever talks about, and Covid-19 is the catalyst.

Universal basic income would have to happen at that point.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Universal basic income would have to happen at that point.

That’s an idea that will see a lot of pushback.

I’ve had discussions about UBI with some educated people. Even when I pointed out a version for the USA (designed by economists) that would eliminate whole agencies, shrinking the federal government, while simultaneously being more efficient and help people more than our current system does, they still raised philosophical objections. When I countered that limited real-world tests of that version of UBI had empirical results contrary to their philosophies’ predictions, they still said they wouldn’t support it.

So I suspect that the USA won’t adopt UBI unless & until there’s no other option. I predict I’ll be dead by then, and longevity is a family trait from both of my parents
lineages.

 

[Zardnaar]

This seems likely. I'll have to think through what I've read to tell which have depicted transitions which aren't completely catastrophic (e.g., Lucifer's Hammer describes a transition, but one which is a total catastrophe).

Maybe history is a reasonable guide? Any of a number of technologies as well as natural events were very disruptive and caused massive economic shifts. Is there a difference in how quickly the transition will play out?

If Covid-19 is the catalyst for a transition, we should expect large disruptions as workers are shifted from obsolete areas to new necessary areas. There remains a big unknown, which is how to do work which requires interaction. How does one get a hair cut? Or do maid service? What happens to workers in worker-dense industries such as poultry or pork processing?

And, there seems to be an even greater trend towards inequality. Social distancing is much harder for folks who have poor connectivity (the digital divide). And I imagine Covid-19 outcomes are much better for folks who can afford better health care. I can imagine the poorer segment of society being left to whether the virus as best they can, with some surviving, and others not.

Be Safe, Be Well,
Tom Bitonti

They haven't invented a machine yet that can do knife work like a human.

That’s an idea that will see a lot of pushback.

I’ve had discussions about UBI with some educated people. Even when I pointed out a version for the USA (designed by economists) that would eliminate whole agencies, shrinking the federal government, while simultaneously being more efficient and help people more than our current system does, they still raised philosophical objections. When I countered that limited real-world tests of that version of UBI had empirical results contrary to their philosophies’ predictions, they still said they wouldn’t support it.

So I suspect that the USA won’t adopt UBI unless & until there’s no other option. I predict I’ll be dead by then, and longevity is a family trait from both of my parents
lineages.

I'm not opposed to the concept but the price tag was unaffordable. No amount of tax hikes would cover it.

It also wasn't much, less than you get here on a pension. Similar to the base rate for unemployment.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I'm not opposed to the concept but the price tag was unaffordable. No amount of tax hikes would cover it.

Depends on where you are. If your country’s safety net is relatively straightforward, a UBI system might be more trouble than it’s worth in the short run.

The system proposed for the USA, otoh, eliminated or reduced nearly every agency and program associated with our labyrinthine “welfare state”, including numerous investigative and judicial oversight branches. That prunes thousands of pages of legal code and regulations down to the minimum needed to determine everyone got the right sized check- fewer loopholes, fewer ways to chest, less need for investigation, enforcement and court cases. Even without raising taxes, reducing the beaurocracy by that much was calculated to result in a net increase in benefit to the recipients.

Of course, that UBI proposal had its own acknowledged flaws. By reducing EVERYTHING- SocSec, Medicare, Medicaid, WIC, etc. to a monthly check, you’re then depending on the recipients to make good decisions allocating that cash to necessities, not bread & circuses. If they don’t, you have a subset of citizens once again falling prey to the societal ills all those agencies were ostensibly created to combat.

Since we don’t live in an idealized world, a UBI program like the one proposed probably wouldn’t work. You’d still need some kind of institutional safety net, even if it’s skeletal in comparison to the current one. That + UBI = tax hike and/or other budget cuts.

 

[Zardnaar]

Depends on where you are. If your country’s safety net is relatively straightforward, a UBI system might be more trouble than it’s worth in the short run.

The system proposed for the USA, otoh, eliminated or reduced nearly every agency and program associated with our labyrinthine “welfare state”, including numerous investigative and judicial oversight branches. That prunes thousands of pages of legal code and regulations down to the minimum needed to determine everyone got the right sized check- fewer loopholes, fewer ways to chest, less need for investigation, enforcement and court cases. Even without raising taxes, reducing the beaurocracy by that much was calculated to result in a net increase in benefit to the recipients.

Of course, that UBI proposal had its own acknowledged flaws. By reducing EVERYTHING- SocSec, Medicare, Medicaid, WIC, etc. to a monthly check, you’re then depending on the recipients to make good decisions allocating that cash to necessities, not bread & circuses. If they don’t, you have a subset of citizens once again falling prey to the societal ills all those agencies were ostensibly created to combat.

Since we don’t live in an idealized world, a UBI program like the one proposed probably wouldn’t work. You’d still need some kind of institutional safety net, even if it’s skeletal in comparison to the current one. That + UBI = tax hike and/or other budget cuts.

The UBI would barely cover health insurance.

I lean more towards

Germany/Scandinavia/NZ approach.

Some sort of FDR new new deal gonna be needed soon. I thought our numbers look bad, they're not god awful.

Debt to GDP ratio
NZ 30%
USA 107%

Think Japan's over 200%.

 

[MarkB]

How does one get a hair cut?

Back in mid-March when the UK restrictions were first introduced, I was already overdue for a haircut and knew I wasn't likely to get one in the next few months, so I picked up a cordless hair clipper when I did my first essentials shopping run.

Finally plucked up the nerve to use it over Easter weekend, and the results weren't terrible. A bit uneven at the back, but I wouldn't be ashamed to go out in public with it, not that that's likely anytime soon.

 

[FrozenNorth]

Also, US just stopped (hopefully just paused) WHO funding.

That is monstrous.