D&D 5E The Last Edition of D&D?

Changes in Dungeons & Dragons' various editions have ranged from the incremental to the epic, shaking up the game's sales along with its playerbase. There is evidence that Wizards of the Coast is following a new model in which there are no more editions, just updates and backwards compatibility. It's a model long touted by the software industry, and for an idea what the future might hold we can look to the future of video game consoles.

Picture courtesy of Unsplash.​

Edition History​

To put Fifth Edition's longevity in perspective, it's worth looking back at the lifespan of the earlier editions. These editions lived long after the debut of later editions (and will live on in perpetuity on the Internet):

[EDIT: Alzrius did a much better job of summarizing editions, so I've replaced my timeline with his here, thanks Alzrius!)

• Original Dungeons & Dragons: 1974 (woodgrain boxed set) through 1976 (Swords & Spells) - 2 years
• Advanced Dungeons & Dragons (1st Edition): 1977-1979 (depending on whether you could it as beginning with the release of the Monster Manual in 1977, the Players Handbook in 1978, or the Dungeon Masters Guide in 1979) through 1988 (DL16 World of Krynn) - 11 years
• Advanced Dungeons & Dragons (2nd Edition): 1989 (Player's Handbook) through 2000 (Die Vecna Die!) - 11 years
• Basic Dungeons & Dragons (Holmes): 1978 (the Holmes Basic set) through 1979 (B2 The Keep on the Borderlands) - 2 years
• Basic Dungeons & Dragons (B/X): 1981 (the Moldvay Basic Set to 1983 (X5 Temple of Death) - 2 years
• Basic Dungeons & Dragons (BECMI): 1983 (the Mentzer Basic Set to 1993 (Champions of Mystara: Heroes of the Princess Ark) - 10 years
• Dungeons & Dragons (3.0 Edition): 2000 (Player's Handbook) through 2003 (Ghostwalk) - 3 years
• Dungeons & Dragons (3.5 Edition): 2003 (Player's Handbook) through 2008 (City of Stormreach) - 5 years
• Dungeons & Dragons (4th Edition): 2008 (Player's Handbook) through 2012 (Into the Unknown: The Dungeons Survival Handbook) - 4 years
• Dungeons & Dragons (4th Edition Essentials): 2010 (Dungeons & Dragons Starter Set) through 2011 (Monster Vault: Threats to the Nentir Vale) - 1 year
• Dungeons & Dragons (Next): 2013 (Ghosts of Dragonspear Castle through 2014 (Legacy of the Crystal Shard) - 1 year
• Dungeons & Dragons (5th Edition): 2014 (Starter Set) through Present (Mythic Odysseys of Theros) - 6 years+

Looking at these averages, the lifespan of an edition ranges from as low as a few years to as long as 11 years. At 6 years old, Fifth Edition is now at the beginning of when it might be considered old enough to warrant a new edition—Fourth Edition lasted just four years (if we count Essentials).

No More Editions?​

Mike Mearls had this to say about a hypothetical sixth edition:

We’re nowhere near 6th edition D&D, but if we get there this is how I’d like it to play out. Zero disruption to what you’re already doing, just new toys to make your game better.

In an Ask Me Anything on Reddit, Mearls clarified in response to a question about modeling D&D's roll-out after Microsoft's roll-out of Windows 10:

Is the goal of 5e to get all D&D players onto one edition and then to support it for a long time, much like what Microsoft is doing with Windows 10? Should we expect 5e to last longer than the 5-6 year lifespan of the previous several editions?
I think we'd do a new edition only when the warts of the current one are bothersome enough that people want them excised.

The much-touted Microsoft model, itself inspired by the iPhone model, comes up frequently because it minimizes disruption to consumers while ensuring they still benefit from systemic improvements. And there's a good reason for customers and developers looking for another way: A platform change can be devastating to a game's market.

Damaged Edition​

As D&D has become more embedded in the Internet ecosystem, it has become increasingly difficult for it to pivot. The Open Game License (OGL) era ushered in by Third Edition, in which many third parties flourished in support of the new game, came to a hard stop with the debut of Fourth Edition. Two planned hardcover supplements I wrote never saw the light of day because the rumors of a new edition spooked the publisher from producing new material. The hint of a new edition was enough to make third party developers change their tactics, and for good reason.

The current D&D ecosystem has only grown larger thanks to the new OGL and the DMs Guild. All the video streamers who are currently buoying interest in the game, the D&D-related Kickstarters launched every week, and market expectations for the brand’s IP as a transmedia franchise suggests that the investment in D&D goes beyond customers and includes small business owners too.

Before a new edition comes out, the existing edition takes a hit: D&D gradually lost market share to Pathfinder, dipping to third place according to ICv2 in 2012 (when Fifth Edition was announced). The drop was not solely attributable to D&D's edition change of course. The issues with Fourth Edition and Pathfinder's popularity certainly had something to do with the shift in positions, but it seems likely the steep drop to third place was accelerated by the edition announcement. We have further data that bears this out in Pathfinder's Second Edition launch, in which Pathfinder First Edition slipped to fifth place in Spring 2019, just before the Summer launch of the new edition.

There's a parallel between an edition of a tabletop game and a video game console, which can have limited backwards compatibility with the games before it. Like the tabletop game industry, the video game industry convulses every six to eight years when a major game development platform (Xbox and Playstation) announces a new system. Developers change their schedules to accommodate and gamers stop buying the current platform as they wait for the new one to debut. This cycle grinds sales of video games to a halt; it can be so devastating that the current down cycle threatens to wipe out GameStop, one of the few remaining brick-and-mortar video game resellers in the United States (GameStop's desperation was on full display during the pandemic).

Something Has to Give​

Increasingly, publishers are realizing that although this model produces an uptick in sales and expenditures in the short-term, it's damaging to the wider gaming ecosystem. This is why console producers are moving away from the existing model to one in which continual upgrades are possible while still guaranteeing backwards compatibility. They do this by building in compatibility from the start so that the console can easily run older games, while at the same time releasing more powerful products that consumers can opt-into as they see fit. In a similar fashion, one of Fifth Edition's goals was to be backwards compatible with the editions that came before it.

A longer market window to sell D&D has had some interesting side-effects, most notably that it creates an opportunity for luxury, high-end products. These products wouldn’t be able to flourish in a market where a potential high-end consumer would balk at investing a significant amount of money on something that wouldn’t compatible in a year.

There’s also signs that the old model no longer makes sense. D&D’s older editions never went away—Pathfinder’s success is an important reminder of this fact—and any new edition would have to compete with the five editions before it for digital attention. In the video game industry, downloadable content allows games and platforms to incorporate feedback and update themselves in real time—just like D&D is now doing with its Unearthed Arcana content and surveys.

Will we ever get a new edition of D&D? With Ray Winniger replacing Mearls as head of the D&D team, there may well be a declaration of a Sixth Edition in the near term, but it seems the game will always be backwards compatible … in which case an edition change is more a branding update than a radical change in the game’s rules.

 

[Zardnaar]

I wouldn't take anything Mearls said as gospel.

1. Things change. Covid plus depression.
2. Mearls is gone burger.
3. He was never the big fish.

I would expect Covid to kick D&D in the love spuds. Follow on depression 2-3 years.

So they will either cancel 5E eventually, or keep going until the depression ends.

Then and only then will they look at 6E to recapture that excitement of 2019.

That will be around 2023/24 which will likely be be ten years or so anyway.

I suspect D&D's core audience/target audience is middle and upper class nerds. How well it does will depend on how many lose their jobs over the next year or two.

5E can survive obviously on 2015 figures but that makes a 6E more likely.

Either way I expect evolution not revolution most likely around 2023-26. So long edition cycle a'la AD&D.

If they try anything to revolutionary it will be 4E 2.0 again IMHO.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

I would expect Covid to kick D&D in the love spuds.

Current evidence is showing the exact opposite. Almost everyone is trapped at home, many are using online videoconferencing tools for work or school, and in a time of economic uncertainty, once you've picked up either the Essentials box or the core three books and some dice, you are set more or less indefinitely.

I have had a ton of people I know reaching out to me about online games, including people I haven't played with for years or, in some cases, ever. I don't imagine I'm a special unique snowflake, no matter what my mom might say.

 

[Oofta]

Current evidence is showing the exact opposite. Almost everyone is trapped at home, many are using online videoconferencing tools for work or school, and in a time of economic uncertainty, once you've picked up either the Essentials box or the core three books and some dice, you are set more or less indefinitely.

I have had a ton of people I know reaching out to me about online games, including people I haven't played with for years or, in some cases, ever. I don't imagine I'm a special unique snowflake, no matter what my mom might say.

I can't speak for your mom, but I was quite surprised when my sister who has never shown a spec of interest in playing asked to join our game. Admittedly, it's a game with our nephews, but still.

But I would not pay too much attention to the predictions of a global zombie apocalypse. People have been predicting that 5E will tank any day now since it's release.

Sales will drop some day. Some day they may or may not decide that a new edition will be a worthy investment.

 

[Man in the Funny Hat]

Le sigh.

No edition of D&D has an Expiration Date.

 

[Parmandur]

I expect there will be a 6th, 7th 8th etc. edition eventually. It will be more like a new Edition of Monopoly, though, an evolutionary development of the evergreen base game rather than a revolution. New covers, backwards compatibility baked in (which is easily done, given the exceptions based design of the game: they could rebuild the Ranger or Warlock entirely and still have a 5E Ranger or Warlock come to the table, for example, or use any monsters from 5E books, or run a 5E Adventure as a 6E/7E whatever game). Basically, take the years of input from Sage Advise, and use that as the basis to rework the core books to clarify the repeat confusion points. Maybe remove Feats or Multiclassing to make some room in the PHB. Nothing major. There isn't money in revolutionizing the game, the money is in merchandising, which is easier with a perennial core ruleset.

 

[Erdric Dragin]

This is what they should have done a long time ago, but with 3rd Edition. I've been saying this for years to people. More editions means you split the fanbase further and further and cause nothing but Edition Wars and a small customer base. Funny how here we are and one of the many things I have said, but that have been shunned or scoffed at, are coming true. Just like when 4e was gonna bomb, sure enough, it did.

 

[Shiroiken]

It is unlikely that this will be the last edition of D&D, as nothing lasts forever. However, I think it will be the longest run of any prior D&D edition, since at this point it's not slowing down. Likely a new edition will be needed for either economic reasons or bloat. The core rulebooks are always the best selling items of any edition, an while 5E is growing, eventually those sales will drop, giving WotC encouragement to consider a new edition. While 5E has managed bloat extraordinarily well, it WILL eventually become hard to manage, and when that happens, a new edition is usually the simplest solution.

Ideally the new edition should be backwards comparable. The best description of this would be the change from 1E to 2E, where there were some classes that were dropped. However, it was not that hard to tweak the missing 1E classes to fit with the rule changes of 2E. Both 3E and 4E were radical changes from AD&D and each other, making it nearly impossible to convert character between editions. 5E was also not backwards compatible, but holds enough similarities to prior editions that a few characters from prior editions can be converted.

 

[Dire Bare]

This has never been done before:

For 6E, convert literally every D&D product ever made into the new edition ahead of time, and make it all available from the start, as PDFs at DMs Guild. Hire freelancers to convert everything.

Why? This entirely skips over the 'perpetual amnesia' and 'short-term-memory loss' and feeling of 'forced obsolescence' which is induced by each piecemeal rollout of a new edition.

Also, cover literally everything in the PF SRD as well. Talk about trumping Paizo!

This could/should be done for every subsequent edition of D&D, from now on.

One of the selling points for D&D 'D&D Product' is the vast Multiverse and product line. But it's not really and fully being tapped.

What?!?! You're pulling a funny, right? Convert every single D&D product from '74 to the new edition before release? By the time they managed that feat, we'd be well on our way to 9th Edition D&D!

There's a lot of great stuff in the back catalog of D&D . . . but there is also a lot of not-so-great stuff. Your idea is beyond unrealistic, and besides, that's what the DM's Guild is for, gives the fans something to do and another way to participate in the hobby.

 

[Lem23]

I seem to recall that way back in the day, when a new version was announced (not sure which), it was revealed that the day after the last version had dropped, there was a team starting work on the next version. I could be wrong, as it was a while ago and I can't remember which versions were being talked about (I skipped D&D between 1e and 5e), but I'd be surprised if 6e wasn't already in at last the basic design stages, and has been for a while.

 

[Lem23]

This is what they should have done a long time ago, but with 3rd Edition.

I'm not sure that would have worked. Despite the D20 craze, it was still less popular than 5e is now. I know I'm not the only person who came back to D&D after a long absence because of 5e. I wouldn't (and didn't) come back for the lumbering beast that as 3rd ed. Partly what killed v3.* was the overly complex stuff that went along with it. Piling ore and more on that creaking chassis would have meant it would have destroyed D&D.