D&D 5E The Last Edition of D&D?

Changes in Dungeons & Dragons' various editions have ranged from the incremental to the epic, shaking up the game's sales along with its playerbase. There is evidence that Wizards of the Coast is following a new model in which there are no more editions, just updates and backwards compatibility. It's a model long touted by the software industry, and for an idea what the future might hold we can look to the future of video game consoles.

Picture courtesy of Unsplash.​

Edition History​

To put Fifth Edition's longevity in perspective, it's worth looking back at the lifespan of the earlier editions. These editions lived long after the debut of later editions (and will live on in perpetuity on the Internet):

[EDIT: Alzrius did a much better job of summarizing editions, so I've replaced my timeline with his here, thanks Alzrius!)

• Original Dungeons & Dragons: 1974 (woodgrain boxed set) through 1976 (Swords & Spells) - 2 years
• Advanced Dungeons & Dragons (1st Edition): 1977-1979 (depending on whether you could it as beginning with the release of the Monster Manual in 1977, the Players Handbook in 1978, or the Dungeon Masters Guide in 1979) through 1988 (DL16 World of Krynn) - 11 years
• Advanced Dungeons & Dragons (2nd Edition): 1989 (Player's Handbook) through 2000 (Die Vecna Die!) - 11 years
• Basic Dungeons & Dragons (Holmes): 1978 (the Holmes Basic set) through 1979 (B2 The Keep on the Borderlands) - 2 years
• Basic Dungeons & Dragons (B/X): 1981 (the Moldvay Basic Set to 1983 (X5 Temple of Death) - 2 years
• Basic Dungeons & Dragons (BECMI): 1983 (the Mentzer Basic Set to 1993 (Champions of Mystara: Heroes of the Princess Ark) - 10 years
• Dungeons & Dragons (3.0 Edition): 2000 (Player's Handbook) through 2003 (Ghostwalk) - 3 years
• Dungeons & Dragons (3.5 Edition): 2003 (Player's Handbook) through 2008 (City of Stormreach) - 5 years
• Dungeons & Dragons (4th Edition): 2008 (Player's Handbook) through 2012 (Into the Unknown: The Dungeons Survival Handbook) - 4 years
• Dungeons & Dragons (4th Edition Essentials): 2010 (Dungeons & Dragons Starter Set) through 2011 (Monster Vault: Threats to the Nentir Vale) - 1 year
• Dungeons & Dragons (Next): 2013 (Ghosts of Dragonspear Castle through 2014 (Legacy of the Crystal Shard) - 1 year
• Dungeons & Dragons (5th Edition): 2014 (Starter Set) through Present (Mythic Odysseys of Theros) - 6 years+

Looking at these averages, the lifespan of an edition ranges from as low as a few years to as long as 11 years. At 6 years old, Fifth Edition is now at the beginning of when it might be considered old enough to warrant a new edition—Fourth Edition lasted just four years (if we count Essentials).

No More Editions?​

Mike Mearls had this to say about a hypothetical sixth edition:

We’re nowhere near 6th edition D&D, but if we get there this is how I’d like it to play out. Zero disruption to what you’re already doing, just new toys to make your game better.

In an Ask Me Anything on Reddit, Mearls clarified in response to a question about modeling D&D's roll-out after Microsoft's roll-out of Windows 10:

Is the goal of 5e to get all D&D players onto one edition and then to support it for a long time, much like what Microsoft is doing with Windows 10? Should we expect 5e to last longer than the 5-6 year lifespan of the previous several editions?
I think we'd do a new edition only when the warts of the current one are bothersome enough that people want them excised.

The much-touted Microsoft model, itself inspired by the iPhone model, comes up frequently because it minimizes disruption to consumers while ensuring they still benefit from systemic improvements. And there's a good reason for customers and developers looking for another way: A platform change can be devastating to a game's market.

Damaged Edition​

As D&D has become more embedded in the Internet ecosystem, it has become increasingly difficult for it to pivot. The Open Game License (OGL) era ushered in by Third Edition, in which many third parties flourished in support of the new game, came to a hard stop with the debut of Fourth Edition. Two planned hardcover supplements I wrote never saw the light of day because the rumors of a new edition spooked the publisher from producing new material. The hint of a new edition was enough to make third party developers change their tactics, and for good reason.

The current D&D ecosystem has only grown larger thanks to the new OGL and the DMs Guild. All the video streamers who are currently buoying interest in the game, the D&D-related Kickstarters launched every week, and market expectations for the brand’s IP as a transmedia franchise suggests that the investment in D&D goes beyond customers and includes small business owners too.

Before a new edition comes out, the existing edition takes a hit: D&D gradually lost market share to Pathfinder, dipping to third place according to ICv2 in 2012 (when Fifth Edition was announced). The drop was not solely attributable to D&D's edition change of course. The issues with Fourth Edition and Pathfinder's popularity certainly had something to do with the shift in positions, but it seems likely the steep drop to third place was accelerated by the edition announcement. We have further data that bears this out in Pathfinder's Second Edition launch, in which Pathfinder First Edition slipped to fifth place in Spring 2019, just before the Summer launch of the new edition.

There's a parallel between an edition of a tabletop game and a video game console, which can have limited backwards compatibility with the games before it. Like the tabletop game industry, the video game industry convulses every six to eight years when a major game development platform (Xbox and Playstation) announces a new system. Developers change their schedules to accommodate and gamers stop buying the current platform as they wait for the new one to debut. This cycle grinds sales of video games to a halt; it can be so devastating that the current down cycle threatens to wipe out GameStop, one of the few remaining brick-and-mortar video game resellers in the United States (GameStop's desperation was on full display during the pandemic).

Something Has to Give​

Increasingly, publishers are realizing that although this model produces an uptick in sales and expenditures in the short-term, it's damaging to the wider gaming ecosystem. This is why console producers are moving away from the existing model to one in which continual upgrades are possible while still guaranteeing backwards compatibility. They do this by building in compatibility from the start so that the console can easily run older games, while at the same time releasing more powerful products that consumers can opt-into as they see fit. In a similar fashion, one of Fifth Edition's goals was to be backwards compatible with the editions that came before it.

A longer market window to sell D&D has had some interesting side-effects, most notably that it creates an opportunity for luxury, high-end products. These products wouldn’t be able to flourish in a market where a potential high-end consumer would balk at investing a significant amount of money on something that wouldn’t compatible in a year.

There’s also signs that the old model no longer makes sense. D&D’s older editions never went away—Pathfinder’s success is an important reminder of this fact—and any new edition would have to compete with the five editions before it for digital attention. In the video game industry, downloadable content allows games and platforms to incorporate feedback and update themselves in real time—just like D&D is now doing with its Unearthed Arcana content and surveys.

Will we ever get a new edition of D&D? With Ray Winniger replacing Mearls as head of the D&D team, there may well be a declaration of a Sixth Edition in the near term, but it seems the game will always be backwards compatible … in which case an edition change is more a branding update than a radical change in the game’s rules.

 

[Zardnaar]

Think you might be remembering some things Monte Cook had to say about 3.5 edition REVIEWS Monte Cook shares his thoughts



Also my impression that seems to have been fairly unpopular move to have made. While I think it's likely any new edition will probably be worked on for a bit before it's publicly acknowledged, I think 5e is still popular enough with areas still open for design that I doubt they've had serious thought about 6e right now

There were some figures that came out a few years ago.

3.5 was less popular than 3.0, Pathfinder was less popular than 3.5 and 4E was outsold by Pathfinder.

Initial sales of 4E may bump it's numbers up out of the gutter but those initial sales evaporated very fast to Pathfinder.

In terms of sales 3.5 is one if the lowest selling editions only beating OD&D and maybe 4E although initial sales might save 4E.

OD&D was so early it wasn't that big.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

The new chief coming in suggests sooner rather than later.

Why?

 

[Levistus's_Leviathan]

Yeah, why does a new boss have anything to do with a new edition? They wouldn't make a new edition of D&D when this edition is already as popular as it is.

 

[Dire Bare]

DriveThruRPG Publisher tools

Of just your own titles, or of sales site-wide?

 

[Mercurius]

I've seen several posters say something to the effect, "We'll get 6E when the broken parts--the crunch--of 5E accumulate to the point that a new edition is warranted, and given a variety of factors, that could be closer than we think." No one is putting it in quite those words, but the emphasis is on the word crunch and its potential impact on the timing of a new edition.

Folks, we live in a new paradigm. D&D is now a cultural phenomenon, with an estimated 14-15 million or more players--most of whom are not excessively focused on mechanics or crunch, but the story and play experience itself. From that perspective, there will never be a point--in the foreseeable future, at least--where a new edition is warranted, at least based on "crunch disgruntlement." Crunch will not be the deciding factor, or pleasing the minority of D&D fans who focus on the finer points of crunch.

WotC will design 6E when they feel like it is financially warranted. It is really that simple. That has always been the case, of course, but whereas in the past, the number of people unhappy with the rules were a larger percentage of the fan base, now they are a smaller percentage.

How do I know this? I don't, but it is a hunch based upon a variety of factors. For one, long-term players tend to be more concerned with the finer points of crunch than newer fans, and we do know that the current fan-base has a much higher percentage of new players than in previous editions (that is, new to the game via the current edition). Secondly, there are far fewer disgruntled fans of the current edition than there were, say, of the previous one. Couple the smaller number of disgruntled fans with the larger number of total players, and the "vocal minority" is a much smaller percentage.

WotC will ride this wave, and try to build it, for as long as they can. The last thing they want to do is create a new edition with crunchier rules just to appease a small minority, while potentially turning off the millions of new (mostly young) fans who are enjoying the play experience of the relatively simple 5E rules.

As I've already said, I do think an anniversary revision is a good possibility, but it is highly unlikely that we'll see more than "errata plus"--the plus being added bells and whistles, maybe some revised classes and sub-systems, monster tweaks, new art, etc. Say, something like "5.2" at most. But the 5E rules set is here to stay -- or at least until the game's popularity tanks, and there's no sign of that happening anytime soon.

 

[Lem23]

The time to work on a new edition isn't when the current one is tanking, its when it's still doing ok. That way, when it does start to tank, you're all ready to roll out the new version. Profit stream continues with maybe a slight dip and (hopefully) a huge boost as the new edition hits, rather than a couple of years of nothing then a boost.

 

[Parmandur]

I've seen several posters say something to the effect, "We'll get 6E when the broken parts--the crunch--of 5E accumulate to the point that a new edition is warranted, and given a variety of factors, that could be closer than we think." No one is putting it in quite those words, but the emphasis is on the word crunch and its potential impact on the timing of a new edition.

Folks, we live in a new paradigm. D&D is now a cultural phenomenon, with an estimated 14-15 million or more players--most of whom are not excessively focused on mechanics or crunch, but the story and play experience itself. From that perspective, there will never be a point--in the foreseeable future, at least--where a new edition is warranted, at least based on "crunch disgruntlement." Crunch will not be the deciding factor, or pleasing the minority of D&D fans who focus on the finer points of crunch.

WotC will design 6E when they feel like it is financially warranted. It is really that simple. That has always been the case, of course, but whereas in the past, the number of people unhappy with the rules were a larger percentage of the fan base, now they are a smaller percentage.

How do I know this? I don't, but it is a hunch based upon a variety of factors. For one, long-term players tend to be more concerned with the finer points of crunch than newer fans, and we do know that the current fan-base has a much higher percentage of new players than in previous editions (that is, new to the game via the current edition). Secondly, there are far fewer disgruntled fans of the current edition than there were, say, of the previous one. Couple the smaller number of disgruntled fans with the larger number of total players, and the "vocal minority" is a much smaller percentage.

WotC will ride this wave, and try to build it, for as long as they can. The last thing they want to do is create a new edition with crunchier rules just to appease a small minority, while potentially turning off the millions of new (mostly young) fans who are enjoying the play experience of the relatively simple 5E rules.

As I've already said, I do think an anniversary revision is a good possibility, but it is highly unlikely that we'll see more than "errata plus"--the plus being added bells and whistles, maybe some revised classes and sub-systems, monster tweaks, new art, etc. Say, something like "5.2" at most. But the 5E rules set is here to stay -- or at least until the game's popularity tanks, and there's no sign of that happening anytime soon.

Maybe a 5E equivalent of the Basic Rules Cyclopedia would be warranted by 2024...

I think the crunch-focused were always the minority, but WotC didn't figure that out until they got into BiG Data in the postmortem for 4E. 3.x and 4E were focused on the minority, whereas 5E has turned to the majority.

 

[Levistus's_Leviathan]

The time to work on a new edition isn't when the current one is tanking, its when it's still doing ok. That way, when it does start to tank, you're all ready to roll out the new version. Profit stream continues with maybe a slight dip and (hopefully) a huge boost as the new edition hits, rather than a couple of years of nothing then a boost.

Don't fix it if it ain't broke. That's the key here. They will keep making d&d 5e products until they've sucked the fanbase dry of money. They're going to run the edition into the ground. They're not going to start making a whole new edition of D&D until profits fall significantly.

 

[Sword of Spirit]

While I think there could be a better edition, I'd actually like D&D to reach a permanent edition. Once it gets things right, there is no need to reinvent the wheel. They can publish setting material and even additional mechanical toys forever without needing to change how you roll a d20 or how the Fighter class works, once they get it done right.

I think it would take about 1.3 more editions to get to the point where I'd say it's there. One new edition to try to present everything they learn about how to make the best D&D up to that point, and then a partial revision to fix the parts that didn't come out quite right in the initial release.

Of course, since I don't own the IP I unfortunately don't get to make the decisions about when and how.

 

[Lem23]

Don't fix it if it ain't broke. That's the key here. They will keep making d&d 5e products until they've sucked the fanbase dry of money. They're going to run the edition into the ground. They're not going to start making a whole new edition of D&D until profits fall significantly.

They'd be fools to let revenue drop before starting work on a replacement, and Hasbro aren't fools.