Wonder Woman Out Dec 16th

[Zardnaar]

With respect, no. For one thing, the streaming services exist. HBO Max is likely going to get a ton of subscriptions - which are like your household buying at least one ticket a month.

For another, even if some theater chains do collapse, with vaccines we are probably looking at return to something approaching normalcy in, say, a year. Those theaters WILL be bought and re-opened by someone who wants to cash in on all the folks who have been cooped up and are yearning for experiences outside the home. I don't think there's a credible chance that they'll remain closed for long beyond broad community vaccination.

John Campea covered it but basically streaming didn't pull in enough money.

They tried selling Bond for 600 million the streamers weren't willing to pay more than 300.

They trialed a couple of movies couldn't make it work at least for the big budget movies.

I think Mulan was one of them.

Your not going to make a billion dollars streaming, probably not even half that or a quarter.

And highest offer they got for Bond was 300 million no one's even got that streaming pov yet.

They either need to figure it out, make cheaper movies or hope things get back to normal with the vaccine fairly fast which probably won't be next 6 months as they're looking at March/April to vaccinate en masse and that's just the start.

 

[Umbran]

Your not going to make a billion dollars streaming, probably not even half that or a quarter.

So, nobody said that they'd do the same on streaming. Your claim was that they, "were stuffed". Given the entirely unclear meaning of that uncommon phrasing, I took a stab at it. Let me try more simply:

The studios will survive.

 

[Rabulias]

For another, even if some theater chains do collapse, with vaccines we are probably looking at return to something approaching normalcy in, say, a year. Those theaters WILL be bought and re-opened by someone who wants to cash in on all the folks who have been cooped up and are yearning for experiences outside the home. I don't think there's a credible chance that they'll remain closed for long beyond broad community vaccination.

Agreed. If theater chains go out of business, there will be buildings with space, furniture, fixtures, equipment, etc., geared to showing movies that will be available for sale. Unless things take an unforeseen bad turn with the vaccines, those assets will not sit idle too long, and someone will invest in them to take advantage of the rebound in movie-going by the public. So a year from now, instead of talking about AMC and Regal, we may be talking about "BND" and "Royal" as the prominent movie theater chains, but I believe there will be movie theaters, and I plan to be going to them.

 

[MarkB]

Agreed. If theater chains go out of business, there will be buildings with space, furniture, fixtures, equipment, etc., geared to showing movies that will be available for sale. Unless things take an unforeseen bad turn with the vaccines, those assets will not sit idle too long, and someone will invest in them to take advantage of the rebound in movie-going by the public. So a year from now, instead of talking about AMC and Regal, we may be talking about "BND" and "Royal" as the prominent movie theater chains, but I believe there will be movie theaters, and I plan to be going to them.

Or they'll be bought up by property developers, and torn down to be replaced with overpriced housing.

 

[Umbran]

Or they'll be bought up by property developers, and torn down to be replaced with overpriced housing.

Unlikely, given the timescales involved. Major theaters will be zoned for commercial use, not residential. Getting re-zoned is a notable process, and is apt to take longer than the pandemic will last (given effective vaccines, fingers crossed).

 

[MarkB]

Unlikely, given the timescales involved. Major theaters will be zoned for commercial use, not residential. Getting re-zoned is a notable process, and is apt to take longer than the pandemic will last (given effective vaccines, fingers crossed).

So, mini-malls and cubicle farms, then.

 

[Umbran]

So, mini-malls and cubicle farms, then.

In this economy? Malls and retail were on the ropes before the pandemic. And it isn't clear that office-space use is going to be booming after it is over.

 

[Rabulias]

Umbran understands what I meant. Yeah, the vaccines might be too late for current theater chains, but there won't be enough time for those properties to be converted to anything other than movie theaters before there are people ready, willing, and able to go out to movies.

 

[Zardnaar]

Why would you invest in movie theaters though when they're probably on the way out anyway?

 

[Rabulias]

The demise of movie theaters, much like the end of the world and the falling of the sky, has often been predicted, but not yet realized. Some of the points where this was touted:

• The advent of television
• Cable TV
• Pay TV channels like HBO and Showtime
• VCRs and movies on VHS
• Netflix (when they first started, renting DVDs by mail)
• Internet streaming in general
• And now streaming services

I believe the idea of seeing movies on large screens and with larger audiences than one can have in the home will still have appeal. I admit that there are some people who will prefer viewing all movies at home, but there are still grognards like me who like to see films on massive IMAX screens (really - I cannot understand how people want to want to watch movies on their phones). Until we die off (or until I can get an IMAX-sized TV in my non-IMAX-sized home), theaters will still do OK.