D&D 5E Volo's 5e vs Tasha's 5e where do you see 5e heading?

[UngeheuerLich]

I'm not sure what I'd call that list you made but certainly wouldn't call it representative of "newer philosophies".

Doesn´t matter how you call it.
Races and classes and new subclasses are quite different now. Also dowtime rules and tools got a big upgrade.
Add Alignment to the list.

 

[Hussar]

Well, I look at it this way.

We're seven years into the edition, and the newest book is sitting in double digits on the Amazon top sellers of all books. 43 as I type this.
Somehow I don't think things are slowing down. Like, at all.

Remember the days when an RPG book selling 15k copies was a phenomenal success? I do.

Good grief, Hoard of the Dragon Queen is still in the top 10000 on Amazon. To put that in perspective, a 7 year old module is outselling core books for the number 2 and number 3 top RPG's.

I think we're in good hands.

 

[Oofta]

Well, I look at it this way.

We're seven years into the edition, and the newest book is sitting in double digits on the Amazon top sellers of all books. 43 as I type this.
Somehow I don't think things are slowing down. Like, at all.

Remember the days when an RPG book selling 15k copies was a phenomenal success? I do.

Good grief, Hoard of the Dragon Queen is still in the top 10000 on Amazon. To put that in perspective, a 7 year old module is outselling core books for the number 2 and number 3 top RPG's.

I think we're in good hands.

But ... but ... they sky is falling! Falling I tell you! Any day now ... just you wait ... any day!

 

[tetrasodium]

Doesn´t matter how you call it.
Races and classes and new subclasses are quite different now. Also dowtime rules and tools got a big upgrade.
Add Alignment to the list.

Actually it really does. 5e is entering the d20 equivalent phase with new forks on the way out. Back in the d20 age wotc was the one building the rule set alongside the content they made while d20 publishers mostly just refluffed and maybe added some feats/spells/PrC options. Wotc is not the one doing the innovation this time and actually seem to be in a phase where they are copying new mechanics rather than creating new mechanics.

 

[Oofta]

-> spell focus rules!!!
-> ranger as a whole (tasha)
-> monk subclasses
-> sorcerer subclasses
-> downtime rules (xanathar)
-> tool proficiencies (xanathar)
-> all races (tasha)

not so much that changing anything would render older material useless. Just a new PHB that incorporates newer philosophies.

Also, if you mean it, that you want to get rid of racial stereotypes, you have to replace the most prominent book by something that represents the new philosophy.
Now it depends:
do you want to make it useful for old players: incorporate new subclasses for every class
do you want old people not to buy it (because you don´t want to look greedy), replace thos subclasses with slightly updated versions and publish the updates for free.

I could live with both options.

And I can live with the 5e books as they are for another while.
But I do think, the next edition will soon arrive and it will not render any source book invalid.

So we have some optional rules and new subclasses that don't modify previous subclasses. Nothing has been rendered useless any more than the optional rules in the DMG rendered useless anything from the PHB. Most of the options are just that, options. It's a book that the DM might buy and use bits and pieces from.

There have been no radical changes, just minor additions and adjustments.

 

[Oofta]

Part of that is WOTC's fault for running away from modular rules early and not emphasizing that Optional rules are optional and showing examples. And many of their optional rules arebad and like you said buried.

Yes. Moving away from something mentioned one time in an interview in 2012. How dare they.

So now you have a community who has a large percentae thinks Dark Gifts are core and go in any campaign.

What makes you think people will think dark gifts are core? First, you assume a large percentage of people buy the book. Next you assume they don't really read the book and grasp that it's campaign specific (aren't there similar things in Theros?). Then, even if they do think it's an option, it's explicitly stated that the player should work with their DM. They work with you, you say no. Done.

That's partially why I gave a short time before sales start to go down. They didn't leave themselve the openings to produce the wowing content that keeping long term fans in. WOTC havent set themselves up to put content that attacts fans who aren't also fans of a future book's theme or setting. A Greyhawk book might need the Lord Robilar's Combat Gambit system that WOTC wont make in order get a fan who doesn't care for sword and sorcery to buy it.

If you think sales are going to drop from increasing by 30% to some lower but still likely double digit growth? That seems quite likely given external factors such as covid vaccines allowing people to resume other activities. Actual decreasing sales? Care to put your money where your mouth is? I could use a sure bet. Of course we'd have to define "short time". What's the spread? I'd say 3 years, maybe 5?

A lot of growth in the game is because we can now play on line, connect with friends and family. We have a nephew and his girlfriend that live halfway across the country we're going to continue having in a gaming group. That kind of thing doesn't go away because a handful of people aren't 100% satisfied with the game.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

So we have some optional rules and new subclasses that don't modify previous subclasses. Nothing has been rendered useless any more than the optional rules in the DMG rendered useless anything from the PHB. Most of the options are just that, options. It's a book that the DM might buy and use bits and pieces from.

There have been no radical changes, just minor additions and adjustments.

Yeah that's how editions work Oofta. You know this.

There's no edition that wasn't true of. That includes 4E and Essentials. All the 3.5E changes could be summarized as "minor additions and adjustments". That doesn't mean D&D couldn't benefit from some larger changes, like with 1E going into 2E. It just means WotC have the basic common sense to hold off on those until a 6E.

If you think sales are going to drop from increasing by 30% to some lower but still likely double digit growth? That seems quite likely given external factors such as covid vaccines allowing people to resume other activities. Actual decreasing sales? Care to put your money where your mouth is? I could use a sure bet. Of course we'd have to define "short time". What's the spread? I'd say 3 years, maybe 5?

Personally I think that as long as the put out what I'd called a 6E and what others call 5.5E and what yet others still will hilariously try to pretend isn't an edition change ("I see no ships"), sometime in the next five years (probably in 2024), they will continue to see double-digit growth year-on-year.

If they don't, I think that we'll see a re-focusing away from selling D&D as an RPG, more towards selling D&D as an IP/lifestyle product. It'll no longer be about actually playing D&D, or even them providing materials to support D&D, as the brand and the idea of being a "D&D player" (even if you aren't in a literal sense). This is also likely to provide decent year-on-year growth, until it hits a generation gap and is seen as hilariously uncool (which seems unlikely to happen with TT RPGs in general, given they've survived several such). Betting on it is hard, because the first time WotC drops significantly below 33% year-on-year growth, like, to say, below 20% or 25%, they'll just not mention the figure and refer instead to "great year on year growth" or something. This is how companies work with their PR. Figures until they're not favourable or as favourable - we saw this with Blizzard and WoW's growth for example, and we see similar with virtually all big MMOs.

Note too that WotC are already attempting to diversify and move into video games, in case D&D stops working out. If they do update D&D suspect we may see a non-D&D RPG to test the waters there too, but they're going to be a lot more cautious than the '00s WotC on that. If they go lifestyle brand they probably won't bother with any other RPGs, but will come out with more products to market the IP to a broad audience.

I think you're missing the point re: Dark Gifts etc. - they're just a sign that a lot of people have a different attitude to the game. I guarantee that if they do a 5.5/6E, the default situation will be that all PCs start with either a Boon of that kind or a Feat, if there's even a difference at that point. There will be an optional approach called like "Old school PCs" or something where they don't get it.

 

[Oofta]

Yeah that's how editions work Oofta. You know this.

There's no edition that wasn't true of. That includes 4E and Essentials. All the 3.5E changes could be summarized as "minor additions and adjustments". That doesn't mean D&D couldn't benefit from some larger changes, like with 1E going into 2E. It just means WotC have the basic common sense to hold off on those until a 6E.

Personally I think that as long as the put out what I'd called a 6E and what others call 5.5E and what yet others still will hilariously try to pretend isn't an edition change ("I see no ships"), sometime in the next five years (probably in 2024), they will continue to see double-digit growth year-on-year.

If they don't, I think that we'll see a re-focusing away from selling D&D as an RPG, more towards selling D&D as an IP/lifestyle product. It'll no longer be about actually playing D&D, or even them providing materials to support D&D, as the brand and the idea of being a "D&D player" (even if you aren't in a literal sense). This is also likely to provide decent year-on-year growth, until it hits a generation gap and is seen as hilariously uncool (which seems unlikely to happen with TT RPGs in general, given they've survived several such). Betting on it is hard, because the first time WotC drops significantly below 33% year-on-year growth, like, to say, below 20% or 25%, they'll just not mention the figure and refer instead to "great year on year growth" or something. This is how companies work with their PR. Figures until they're not favourable or as favourable - we saw this with Blizzard and WoW's growth for example, and we see similar with virtually all big MMOs.

Note too that WotC are already attempting to diversify and move into video games, in case D&D stops working out. If they do update D&D suspect we may see a non-D&D RPG to test the waters there too, but they're going to be a lot more cautious than the '00s WotC on that. If they go lifestyle brand they probably won't bother with any other RPGs, but will come out with more products to market the IP to a broad audience.

I think you're missing the point re: Dark Gifts etc. - they're just a sign that a lot of people have a different attitude to the game. I guarantee that if they do a 5.5/6E, the default situation will be that all PCs start with either a Boon of that kind or a Feat, if there's even a difference at that point. There will be an optional approach called like "Old school PCs" or something where they don't get it.

So again ... people complain we didn't get a modular system. They start publishing some alternative rules many of which are campaign world specific and that "proves" 6E is just around the corner.

Tell you what. Since you "guarantee" that we're going to have a new edition any day now, care to make a bet? It can't be open ended because nothing lasts forever. I just think it's ludicrous to think that there's going to be anything other than additional supplements and optional rules in the short term.

I don't think we'll see a new edition or major revision of the core rule books in the next 3 years. Anybody want to take me up on the wager?

 

[Ruin Explorer]

So again ... people complain we didn't get a modular system. They start publishing some alternative rules many of which are campaign world specific and that "proves" 6E is just around the corner.

Tell you what. Since you "guarantee" that we're going to have a new edition any day now, care to make a bet? It can't be open ended because nothing lasts forever. I just think it's ludicrous to think that there's going to be anything other than additional supplements and optional rules in the short term.

I don't think we'll see a new edition or major revision of the core rule books in the next 3 years. Anybody want to take me up on the wager?

I think it's extremely telling that you chose three, which would only take us to May 2024. I'll take you on five, because I think with three you could naughty word your way out of it if 6E came out in say June 2024, not May 2024. And any new PHB with any new/different rules beyond the changes made in the errata must count (I will allow future errata, if there are any, of course, but they need to actually go in the official errata document), none of the "I see no ships" bollocks because there aren't "enough" rules changes that I full expect to see from certain people (not you though actually) when it happens. I say five because I could easily see WotC feeling they have to delay 6E because their digital offering wasn't yet up to scratch in 2024 even though that is likely to be the intended year.

How much were you thinking?

 

[Parmandur]

If they don't, I think that we'll see a re-focusing away from selling D&D as an RPG, more towards selling D&D as an IP/lifestyle product. It'll no longer be about actually playing D&D, or even them providing materials to support D&D, as the brand and the idea of being a "D&D player" (even if you aren't in a literal sense). This is also likely to provide decent year-on-year growth, until it hits a generation gap and is seen as hilariously uncool (which seems unlikely to happen with TT RPGs in general, given they've survived several such). Betting on it is hard, because the first time WotC drops significantly below 33% year-on-year growth, like, to say, below 20% or 25%, they'll just not mention the figure and refer instead to "great year on year growth" or something. This is how companies work with their PR. Figures until they're not favourable or as favourable - we saw this with Blizzard and WoW's growth for example, and we see similar with virtually all big MMOs.

They made that shift a few years ago: D&D cookbooks and children's picture books (which are great, by the way, the kids love them) are promoted the same as ruoe books. The game is central to the lifestyle brand...but the real money is in t-shirts and bobbpeheads. A solid base game that doesn't change radically or rapidly is key to that strategy.