Hatmatter
Laws of Mordenkainen, Elminster, & Fistandantilus
Hey, Ruin, why are you using inflammable words like "naughty word" and "bollocks." Write when you are not so worked up because I do not see enough parameters to make a clear bet. I would like to establish those parameters without the escalating language.I think it's extremely telling that you chose three, which would only take us to May 2024. I'll take you on five, because I think with three you could naughty word your way out of it if 6E came out in say June 2024, not May 2024. And any new PHB with any new/different rules beyond the changes made in the errata must count (I will allow future errata, if there are any, of course, but they need to actually go in the official errata document), none of the "I see no ships" bollocks because there aren't "enough" rules changes that I full expect to see from certain people (not you though actually) when it happens. I say five because I could easily see WotC feeling they have to delay 6E because their digital offering wasn't yet up to scratch in 2024 even though that is likely to be the intended year.
How much were you thinking?
So, in order to contribute to the parameters, let me say that a "50th anniversary edition" of the core books that includes errata does not qualify.
Concerning: "with any/new different rules beyond changes made in the errata," given that this conversation was taking place in the context of a "6th edition [note: I just edited this, as I originally wrote "5.5," but, if you go back and read the first few pages of this thread, it is all about 6th edition being around the corner] is around the corner" that people were writing in the first few pages of the thread, such a mark would be quite an easy mark to hit for you.
I would say that, presuming that there is going to be an anniversary edition, it will NOT contain:
1. Eliminate alignment. Alignment is still part of the game in the anniversary edition. This does NOT mean that alignments associated with races will not be deleted. If they bother to reset the type in the PHB for an anniversary edition of the game, I fully expect they would delete the alignment tendencies associated with race. Such a change would hardly would qualify as D&D 5.5th edition.
2. Any anniversary edition of the core books will not give every character race (beyond human of course) a feat at first level, which some have mentioned. So, in that respect, the Dark Gives and Supernatural Gifts (Theros) will not be in the PHB, given that they are campaign-specific and dealt with already in some form in the DMG.
3. The anniversary edition will not change the downtime rules or make the other optional rules in Xanathat's and Tasha's standard.
4. When it comes to race, if they are printing a new anniversary edition of the PHB, I can see them having entries for "dwarf," "elf," "gnome," and so forth, but implementing the Tasha's ability score system. So, on that I am on the fence, simply because if they are going through the trouble of creating a celebratory anniversary edition, they might feel that is worthwhile. But, that is hardly D&D 5.5th edition.
5. I do not think any anniversary edition will incorporate the new Xanathar's downtime optional rules as standard.
6. I do not think that any anniversary edition will alter the ranger class from what it is in the PHB.
7. I do not see any anniversary edition altering the monk or sorcerer class as someone said earlier in this thread (just a page or two ago).
Determining the odds is an interesting endeavor, because, as I said, it is a low bar to say that there is going to be an anniversary edition. But, defining what would constitute a "new edition" and, make no mistake a D&D 5.5 edition would be a "new" edition, is the difficulty. Perhaps determining the odds would best be done through a poll here on ENworld such as Oofta mentioned upthread. But, before anyone posts that poll, we should agree on the wording.If we can proceed forward defining terms in specific ways and not using escalating rhetoric, I could put down probably $100 (American) on such a bet...but, to be clear, I am not putting down that money YET because we have not decided on odds and also we have not fully hashed out what constitutes an "anniversary edition" (my side and, I presume Oofta) and what constitutes a 5.5 or 6th edition (your side).
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