D&D General What if Critical Role had stuck with Pathfinder? Or 4E?

[Oofta]

Yeah but even then when there WAS a D&D release it was back to number 1 for the next month or so before dipping back down so publication schedule had something to do with it. This trend continued with the adventures that were system neutral for Baldur's Gate and Siege of Dragonspear with the Next preview rules in them. So the Batman vs Spider-man analogy still stands. There was no Batman last week so Spider-man was more popular than Batman, there is Batman this week so Batman will stomp Spider-man for a few weeks and eventually there won't be either in the theater but Batman is the 800lb Gorilla of comic book movies. That is the standard bearer for the genre and while others have outgrossed in the meantime, it always comes back swinging and this is the first Batman proper since Dark Knight Rises after the Batman vs Superman sort of failure (872.2 million is massive) as representative of the 4e run and Justice League as Essentials.

Now I am not saying lack of publication killed D&D or trying to compare the model for 5e to late 4e. By then 4e was a confusing mess as far as what to buy, the errata, the sheer volume of material and the insistence and necessity of the DDI subscription to get things right. It was ahead of its time really because... 5e succeeded because of D&D Beyond, a slow publication schedule and higher focus on quality products with stringent criteria and telling a story. Then VTT helped D&D succeeded in the pandemic due to ease of access and the simplicity of the product line. "This is the core rule book set and these are adventures you can play if you want". That small product line that COULD have been a curse is a blessing to 5e in my opinion.

We will never know what could have been, of course. My biggest could have been is what could have happened if the release had not been rushed. They've stated that the power and AEDU structure was intended to primarily be for wizards, it was never intended to be applied across the board. What if Essentials had been integrated into the initial release? What if they had had a little more time to iron out issues or done a broader playtest? We'll never know.

But ... I think we need to look at a little history here. The core rules PDF for 5E was released in July of 2014, the PHB in August, the DMG not until December. I remember calling around to game stores trying to find a copy of the books because everyone was selling out as soon as they got any. According to this chart D&D regained top spot almost immediately, perhaps not surprising considering all the playtests, free PDF (great marketing there if nothing else) and being a new release. But it didn't just boom and bust like other editions have, even with very minimal product release they saw double digit sales growth almost immediately.

On the other hand CR didn't start streaming until March 2015 and it took a while for it to take off. Even now, the number of people that watch the show is a fraction of those that play the game, we'll never know how many people would have played if streaming had never been a thing. DndBeyond wasn't released until August 2017, the first online character creator crashed and burned in not-so-spectacular fashion.

There are many, many factors to 5E's success. While nothing's perfect, it's a decent system. They didn't go after the hard core optimizer crowd and instead by luck or design created a game with wide appeal. They didn't flood the market with product, the first non-core, non-adventure book was the SCAG a year after initial release, VGtM a year after that. The core books continue to sell amazingly well and they realized that having a PHB 2 was confusing to potential customers so the core books continue to sell amazingly well.

Beyond that? I think people were looking for a way to reconnect that didn't involve social media and this odd disconnect of friends that you never actually have a face-to-face conversation with. Of course the acceptance of enjoying things like comic book heroes helped as well. After all of that add in streaming, DndBeyond and probably a half dozen things I haven't mentioned and here we are.

There are times when it feels like people are looking for an excuse as to why 5E is more popular than their favorite game or edition. I think the biggest factors are that it's a decent system with broad appeal that happened to ride the wave of a cultural zeitgeist that was looking for something like it. I'm not convinced any pre-5E version of D&D could have done that.

 

[Burnside]

On the other hand CR didn't start streaming until March 2015 and it took a while for it to take off. Even now, the number of people that watch the show is a fraction of those that play the game,

You're underestimating CR's audience size here, and also the fact that a lot of people watch CR who don't play D&D at all.

CR's audience is smaller than the number of D&D in the world, so in that sense it's a "fraction", yes. But it would also be accurate to say that CR's fanbase rivals the size of the D&D player base.

 

[Oofta]

You're underestimating CR's audience size here, and also the fact that a lot of people watch CR who don't play D&D at all.

CR's audience is smaller than the number of D&D in the world, so in that sense it's a "fraction", yes. But it would also be accurate to say that CR's fanbase rivals the size of the D&D player base.

Back in 2020 WOTC stated that 50 million people had played D&D and they've seen double digit growth every year since. Critical Roll on the other hand averages 1.2 to 1.5 million viewers.

I'd say CR has a fraction of the number of people that have played D&D is accurate.

 

[Burnside]

Back in 2020 WOTC stated that 50 million people had played D&D and they've seen double digit growth every year since. Critical Roll on the other hand averages 1.2 to 1.5 million viewers.

I'd say CR has a fraction of the number of people that have played D&D is accurate.

"Have played" as in, total number of people that have played D&D ever since 1975, sure.

"Are playing" which is what you wrote up there, is not 50 million people.

 

[HammerMan]

We will never know what could have been, of course. My biggest could have been is what could have happened if the release had not been rushed. They've stated that the power and AEDU structure was intended to primarily be for wizards, it was never intended to be applied across the board. What if Essentials had been integrated into the initial release? What if they had had a little more time to iron out issues or done a broader playtest? We'll never know.

I actually in another thread said if Essentials (with 2 pretty simple fighters) had come out first with some splat book a year later with the PHB fighter (I mean maybe Martial power, maybe PHB2, I don't think it matters) with just more AEDU options that it would have gone over better.

TBH as a major 4e stan I have my own idea of how I would have made a new edition based on it. I would (and I am only doing the 2 classes and even then most likely badly) make wizards still have X spells preped, but no spell slots per say. Each spell that you prep has it's own 'recharge timer' so somthing like burining hands is a 1st level spell you can use 1/encounter or 1/short rest but Detect magic) is one that can be used at will, and magic missle is one that can only be used 1/day... mixed with some spells turning into ritual only spells... so you don't prep them. take the slayer and the knight almost word for word from the essentials (with later options for more 'swap power strike for other more varied abilities like come and get it and mountain hammer ect) I would also have POWER SOURCE abilites so any arcane character can learn this spell (identify as a ritual) and martial character can learn this exploit ect... I would also go closer to the 5e bounded accuracy (although maybe upping it a little bit) Most important I would create more varied (and way more playtested) skill challanges... showing how to hex crawl exploration (I like the ideas in the middle earth 5e book for this) being a diffrent type of skill challange then trying to convince the king to send aid...

 

[Oofta]

"Have played" as in, total number of people that have played D&D ever since 1975, sure.

"Are playing" which is what you wrote up there, is not 50 million people.

The game is more popular than it ever has been as far as we can tell. Even if you cut that 50 million in half, which I think would be silly, CR is still a fraction.

 

[HammerMan]

You're underestimating CR's audience size here, and also the fact that a lot of people watch CR who don't play D&D at all.

pre covid Becky had a boyfriend who used to watch us play and never wanted to... but he would joke around with us when we broke character or something. About a year ago he got really into CR (and is my main outlit of knowing about it) even though he still has 0 interest in playing

 

[HammerMan]

The game is more popular than it ever has been as far as we can tell. Even if you cut that 50 million in half, which I think would be silly, CR is still a fraction.

yeah... I doubt anyone has good numbers through 2e and maybe even early 3e for how many people played... so that 50 million estimate always strikes me as odd... like at one Point a guy I used to know talked about his first game being at college (I was just born that year BTW) and it was with half the rules cause it was a photo copy someone made of a pamplet going around his school... no one can count those games.

 

[Oofta]

I actually in another thread said if Essentials (with 2 pretty simple fighters) had come out first with some splat book a year later with the PHB fighter (I mean maybe Martial power, maybe PHB2, I don't think it matters) with just more AEDU options that it would have gone over better.

TBH as a major 4e stan I have my own idea of how I would have made a new edition based on it. I would (and I am only doing the 2 classes and even then most likely badly) make wizards still have X spells preped, but no spell slots per say. Each spell that you prep has it's own 'recharge timer' so somthing like burining hands is a 1st level spell you can use 1/encounter or 1/short rest but Detect magic) is one that can be used at will, and magic missle is one that can only be used 1/day... mixed with some spells turning into ritual only spells... so you don't prep them. take the slayer and the knight almost word for word from the essentials (with later options for more 'swap power strike for other more varied abilities like come and get it and mountain hammer ect) I would also have POWER SOURCE abilites so any arcane character can learn this spell (identify as a ritual) and martial character can learn this exploit ect... I would also go closer to the 5e bounded accuracy (although maybe upping it a little bit) Most important I would create more varied (and way more playtested) skill challanges... showing how to hex crawl exploration (I like the ideas in the middle earth 5e book for this) being a diffrent type of skill challange then trying to convince the king to send aid...

Related to this I sometimes wonder what PF2 would have looked like if 4E had integrated in some ideas from essential early on and been more successful. They had to make a pretty clean break from being a D&D clone because 5E kind of swooped into the pre-4E style game niche and they had to go a different direction. Even if 4E had been more successful, I suspect that maybe PF would be a bit more competitive today. We'll never know of course.

 

[Oofta]

yeah... I doubt anyone has good numbers through 2e and maybe even early 3e for how many people played... so that 50 million estimate always strikes me as odd... like at one Point a guy I used to know talked about his first game being at college (I was just born that year BTW) and it was with half the rules cause it was a photo copy someone made of a pamplet going around his school... no one can count those games.

Yeah, it's hard to get hard numbers and I don't think we'll ever know. What we do know is that according to WOTC 2019 was the biggest for D&D ever. Related back to the topic in 2016 Mike Mearls tweeted "5e lifetime PHB sales > 3, 3.5, 4 lifetime".

While I was curious, I can't find any hard numbers but did find:

In 2020, Wizards of the Coast announced that Dungeons & Dragons had its 6th annual year of growth in 2019 with a "300 percent increase in sales of their introductory box sets, as well as a 65% increase on sales in Europe, a rate which has more than quadrupled since 2014"​

​

I know the PHB still ranks highly on Amazon for number of all books they sell. The fact that I'm playing a game with my sister who never showed any interest in the game ever just boggles my mind. Admittedly it's largely because it's because it's a family game with my nephews but still.

How many people are actively playing? Who knows. Tens of millions would be my best guess. End of the day I'm just happy the game is successful and that I can continue to find players.