loverdrive
Prophet of the profane (She/Her)
If the plan can be utterly ruined by randomness, to the point where it can't be salvaged and adapted, yes, it is a bad plan. Is that a contentious opinion?And by your previous post it still isn't a good plan unless it success with absolute certainty (since you said it isn't good if randomness has any chance at all of scuttling it).
Setbacks happen, hell, black swans happen, but both accounting for them and adapting to the situation at hand are a crucial part of overcoming challenges. If DM has to "save" players' smart plan with fudging or it will crash and burn, that was no smart plan, that was a gamble.
Have you read the essay this quote originates from? Because "don't make plans lol, wing it" isn't what I took away from Moltke's writing. More like "plan, but reevaluate your plan at every step".no plan of operations can with any certainty reach beyond the first encounter with the enemy.’
The first task of strategy is the final assembly (Bereitstellung) of the fighting forces, the first deployment of the army.38 Here, multifarious political, geographic, and national considerations come into question. A mistake in the original assembly of the army can scarcely be rectified in the entire course of the campaign. But these arrangements can be considered long in advance and — assuming the war readiness of the units and the availability of the means of transport — must unfailingly lead to the intended result.
Also included in the broader tasks of strategy are the combat employment of the assembled units, thus operations. Here one will soon encounter the independent will of the enemy. We can limit this only if we are prepared and decisive in taking the initiative. But we may not be able to break the enemy's will except with the means of tactics, with combat.
The military and moral consequences of every great engagement are of such a far-reaching kind that they usually create a fully transformed situation, a new basis for new measures. No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy's main strength. Only the layman sees in the course of a campaign a consistent execution of a preconceived and highly detailed original concept pursued consistently to the end.