D&D 5E What if the D&D Core outsells the revised D&D Core?

[Scribe]

And if that old stock sells better? Used ones go through the roof? There are a lot of PHB's out there. Probably in the channel too.

I mean...I dont want to believe that WotC is that inept that they would be making the various changes they have been making for multiple years now, without enough data to support those changes.

In a world where they update the core (5.5) and discontinue the current core (5e) and 5.5 craters?

Other than me laughing, for a very long time, I would really have to question...well the last several years of post Tasha work, and how/why it took place.

That said, I simply cannot see it. 5.5 will sell as well as 5e, if not more so, because its not going to be a wild departure, and it will be the new hotness.

 

[overgeeked]

What would you do if you were WotC?

What do you think WotC would do?

It just struck me, what if WotC revises the core books but the originals continue to sell like they do now? What happens if they outperform the new core books? What happens if they out preform them a lot?

They won't. Because WotC will not continue to sell the original core. If nothing else, specifically to prevent that from happening. Just like any edition change, the old stuff is no longer in print to make way for the new stuff. Whatever stock they have on hand or in distribution when the new stuff is close to release will be the last of it.

 

[darjr]

I mean...I dont want to believe that WotC is that inept that they would be making the various changes they have been making for multiple years now, without enough data to support those changes.

In a world where they update the core (5.5) and discontinue the current core (5e) and 5.5 craters?

Other than me laughing, for a very long time, I would really have to question...well the last several years of post Tasha work, and how/why it took place.

That said, I simply cannot see it. 5.5 will sell as well as 5e, if not more so, because its not going to be a wild departure, and it will be the new hotness.

Sure but that wasn’t my point of the thread. I agree with you. But what if the magic dies somehow?

After all at the beginning they didn’t know what they had. What if it is lightning in a bottle?

 

[MGibster]

Sure but that wasn’t my point of the thread. I agree with you. But what if the magic dies somehow?

It's going to die at some point, right? I like that D&D is very popular, but I don't think it's going to last forever.

 

[Scribe]

Sure but that wasn’t my point of the thread. I agree with you. But what if the magic dies somehow?

After all at the beginning they didn’t know what they had. What if it is lightning in a bottle?

I mean but it isn't.

I get it 'what if' and all that, but its not lightning in a bottle. Its been sustained for, well you have your finger on the pulse of this more than I do. Its been sustained for a very long time, and see's continued sales of books that are by now old.

The only thing I can see is that 5.5 somehow (and again I don't believe this will happen) scares people off somehow, and so sales of ALL D&D falls off a cliff.

That to me, is more likely than 5e outselling 5.5 for a sustained period of time, but I don't believe it to be likely either.

 

[overgeeked]

Sure yea. But what if the new core tanks? Regardless?

It's possible. But not likely. A whole lot of 5E's popularity is resurgent nostalgia and a new fad wave. There's no telling when and how those will wane. It could be with the revision, it could be the next edition change, it could be when the movie, etc saturates the market, etc. We don't know. But it will (most likely) happen.

Sure but that wasn’t my point of the thread. I agree with you. But what if the magic dies somehow?

After all at the beginning they didn’t know what they had. What if it is lightning in a bottle?

It is a confluence of several big factors. That's not sustainable. But WotC has done a good job capitalizing on it and bootstrapping their IP into bigger and bigger things. We're back at the major motion picture stage. There was one in 2000...with two sequels that no one talks about...and now 23 years later, they're trying again. Critical Role and other live plays. Nostalgia from grownup '80s fad players. On and on. But, it will end...at some point. Fad lose their luster. At best, the new fad players will filter into the wider RPG space and start playing other games. At worst, the new fad players will leave the hobby entirely. Something in the middle is more likely. They hold onto their 5E books and play just that. They leave the hobby for a decade or two then come back as another wave of nostalgia players. Who knows.

 

[Parmandur]

What would you do if you were WotC?

What do you think WotC would do?

It just struck me, what if WotC revises the core books but the originals continue to sell like they do now? What happens if they outperform the new core books? What happens if they out preform them a lot?

Well, think about it: who is the primary target fir selling new Core books? People aged 8-24. Meaning that by 2024 a significant percentage of the target market for a PHB wouldn't have been born When the 2014 Core was published.

People have twelfth birthdays every day, People go to College and need to build a new friend group every year. A smooth transition just gives a fresh on ramp for new players. Old players buying in are just a nice to have. As long as they keep the core rules compatible, they can just keep selling Adventures and such to people who haven't bought the new books, and a number of us will switch over for the art.

Also, there might be a hit film franchise constantly advertising the game by then. Times are weird.

 

[darjr]

I think they've done well, and I think they do have a good handle on the new revisions.
And I think they are very smart and probably have a huge movie hit on their hands.

so if it tanks anyway?

go back to the original 5e plan? A sort of Marvel comics plan? Where it kinda doesn't matter how well the D&D game does?

Reverse coarse and put the original print core back into print?

Go back to the 3rd edition/4th edition and cycle the core rules again?

Something better?

Yes, it's probably a dire circumstance that is very unlikely to happen. But similar things have happened. I mean it kinda did with the AD&D 2.0 and with D&D 3.5 and 4th edition.

I'm looking for what you'd do in that situation?

 

[darjr]

Well, think about it: who is the primary target fir selling new Core books? People aged 8-24. Meaning that by 2024 a significant percentage of the target market for a PHB wouldn't have been born When the 2014 Core was published.

People have twelfth birthdays every day, People go to College and need to build a new friend group every year. A smooth transition just gives a fresh on ramp for new players. Old players buying in are just a nice to have. As long as they keep the core rules compatible, they can just keep selling Adventures and such to people who haven't bought the new books, and a number of us will switch over for the art.

Also, there might be a hit film franchise constantly advertising the game by then. Times are weird.

Yes, but all of that is true right now.
New audience.
Hit trailer and looks like a hit franchise. (OK that's still on the bubble, maybe, but it's gone from "unsure" to "well maybe"). The D&D franchise was a hit for Magic, selling a ton of Magic. (which frankly I'd never have guessed).

 

[darjr]

Yea, but maybe it's too weird a speculation to live. I get that too.