D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

ENWorld posters have a bias toward Gen X's worldview.

The Nintendo Wii is 17 years old. That's a long time for Mario to become more prominent again -- it predates the Marvel Cinematic Universe, for point of reference.

In any case, this isn't Hollywood Stock Exchange.

Speaking of the domestic US market, I don't think there's any real question that Super Mario Bros. is going to be a big hit, and presumably do extremely well in Japan as well.

 

[Zardnaar]

ENWorld posters have a bias toward Gen X's worldview.

The Nintendo Wii is 17 years old. That's a long time for Mario to become more prominent again -- it predates the Marvel Cinematic Universe, for point of reference.

In any case, this isn't Hollywood Stock Exchange.

Speaking of the domestic US market, I don't think there's any real question that Super Mario Bros. is going to be a big hit, and presumably do extremely well in Japan as well.

I think Nintendo is more prominent vs just Mario. Obviously Nintendo has picked up since switch I'm just expecting it to do a lot better domestically due to its cultural impact its had in USA. And if the box office comes in and it's done better internationally this statement is wrong its just an opinion.

No idea how well it well perform its projections are really good once again see what happens.

 

[OB1]

Here is what Deadline is saying about D&D this weekend

How is Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves holding up? The Paramount/eOne $150M production has a 5-day domestic gross of $43.6M, after a Monday of $2.7M (-69% from Sunday) and a Tuesday of $3.6M (+31%). If all goes well in weekend 2, it will be down 45% for a take around $20M.

That would put it close to $70M over it's first 10 days, and I think you could start counting on a $300M worldwide total at that point, with $400M still possible. I wouldn't be shocked to see a sequel announced next week if comes in 2nd place this weekend on a drop of less than 50%.

 

[Mistwell]

I think people over value steaming though

Then it's simple: I think you're wrong, and so do experts in the entertainment industry.

and it's very hard to quantify and we don't have access to the figures anyway.

Yes, it is hard to quantify those numbers. Which is not an excuse for going around saying it won't even earn it's money back because you don't have access to the data you'd need to provide a firm answer. It's not a reason to just pretend that part of the formula doesn't exist because you don't have access to that data. It's a reason to humbly say, "we don't know so I guess we need to go by the people who do know, who said what their expectations were, and trust they knew what they were talking about since they have better access to data we don't have."

And I'm guessing a big hit movie is still gonna get more money from a streaming service. For all we know Oaramount has already git the rights to streaming via paying for half the movie.

Apparently if you want a hit movie on streaming theatrical release still matters as well.

Yes, theatrical release does still matter. Which is why everyone was looking to see if it met or exceeded box office expectations. NOT a reason to instead plug in that outdated pre-pandemic formula and declare it was not meeting expectations based on that formula rather than the announced expectations.

 

[Mistwell]

Here is what Deadline is saying about D&D this weekend

That would put it close to $70M over it's first 10 days, and I think you could start counting on a $300M worldwide total at that point, with $400M still possible. I wouldn't be shocked to see a sequel announced next week if comes in 2nd place this weekend on a drop of less than 50%.

They already announced a right of first refusal was purchased from the writers. Which is a good sign for a sequel.

 

[Zardnaar]

Then it's simple: I think you're wrong, and so do experts in the entertainment industry.



Yes, it is hard to quantify those numbers. Which is not an excuse for going around saying it won't even earn it's money back because you don't have access to the data you'd need to provide a firm answer. It's not a reason to just pretend that part of the formula doesn't exist because you don't have access to that data. It's a reason to humbly say, "we don't know so I guess we need to go by the people who do know, who said what their expectations were, and trust they knew what they were talking about since they have better access to data we don't have."


Yes, theatrical release does still matter. Which is why everyone was looking to see if it met or exceeded box office expectations. NOT a reason to instead plug in that outdated pre-pandemic formula and declare it was not meeting expectations based on that formula rather than the announced expectations.

Except my OP is specifically about the box office.

John Wick for example made double its budget by week 2.

Streaming not irrelevant but its also a strawman.

I don't think Shazam 2 numbers for example will matter when it hits streaming.



It's box office fate is still gonna determine its streaming success yes? Eg it will determine how much someone's gonna pay for it.

And if Paramount has already paid it doesn't really matter.

 

[Zardnaar]

Here is what Deadline is saying about D&D this weekend

That would put it close to $70M over it's first 10 days, and I think you could start counting on a $300M worldwide total at that point, with $400M still possible. I wouldn't be shocked to see a sequel announced next week if comes in 2nd place this weekend on a drop of less than 50%.

Movies these days are very front loaded first 3 weekends. From here on out it's all downhill.

Crunch the numbers out. 45% Deadlines numbers (I'll round to 50% easier math)

Worldwide
70 million, 35 million. 17 million, 8.5.

Thats not even its budget back in 4 weeks let alone double it (cf John Wick week 2). The missing 5% doesn't matter (easier math do it at 40% if it makes you feel better)

After week 4 the returns are gonna be marginal even of the drop off smooths out higher than 45%.

That doesn't add up to 300 million even adding 10-15 million for weekdays. And that 10-15 million is also gonna drop.

It's not impossible but they have to hit close to 30% drop off and keep that 10-15 million weekdays have a very gradual decline.

So can't call it yet but it's not looking good on projected numbers.

20% numbers

70, 50, 40, 32

Weekdays
15, 12, 9.6, 7.6ish 237ish million.

That's with a very very generous drop off and the movie vastly exceeds projections. Afterweek 3 numbers are usually way down typically for any movie.

 

[bedir than]

D&D: Honor Among Thieves is now just over 2 million off of Cocaine Bear. Also the balance shifted towards international.
Tuesday will certainly be the end of its #1 reign domestically.

Daily Box Office For 2023

www.boxofficemojo.com

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

D&D: Honor Among Thieves is now just over 2 million off of Cocaine Bear. Also the balance shifted towards international.
Tuesday will certainly be the end of its #1 reign domestically.

Cocaine Bear is apparently getting a sequel.

No idea what the budget for the film was though, or how much all that cocaine cost.

 

[Zardnaar]

Cocaine Bear is apparently getting a sequel.

No idea what the budget for the film was though, or how much all that cocaine cost.

Cocaine Bear was vastly cheaper.

Cocaine Bear - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

30-35 million. It made over double its budget.