The hard part about prognosticating about D&D:HAT is the unusual circumstances of its $151M budget. We know eOne put up half of that. We don't know what the agreed upon ratio was for division of revenue. We don't know if or how marketing was split up. Both Paramount and eOne benefit from ancillary revenue: Paramount from streaming rights, and eOne from licensing and merchandise.
What I find interesting is the $151M number in the first place. That's just an unheard amount of money to spend on an untested property scheduled for a March release (instead of a summer or Christmas release, where blockbusters generally go). And where did that money go? Variety reported that Chris Pine's salary was $11.5M. Hugh Grant got $5M for Paddington 2, and I can't imagine he got much more for this. The production ran from April to August 2021, which was during the height of the pandemic, but there have been no reports of trouble in the production, and it used old Game of Thrones sets in Ireland, so they didn't have to build everything from the ground up. There's some CGI, but not an incredible amount, particularly with the filmmakers using practical effects when possible. Even before the movie released, Paramount inked Goldstein and Daley to a first look deal, which is not something generally you do if directors go way over budget.
Without hard numbers, all we can do is speculate based on the reported numbers and the typical rules of thumb. But given its reception with both critics and audiences, and its unusual financial structure, I suspect it won't have to clear $300M to get a sequel. That's just a hunch, though. Going by the numbers, if this were any other movie, the chances are probably slim.
