D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[mamba]

I went out looking for some revenue percentages. All The info I have found is saying box office only accounts for about 50% of 'direct' film revenues. Some movies generate more in revenue from merchandising than they do from the movies themselves. In short, a film can be expected to make about what it makes from the box office in TV and Video/DVD sales. Tack on merchandising and the revenue forecast isn't nearly as bleak as @Zardnaar is making it out to be.

that is 2016, not sure the DVD market is anywhere near that size any more

 

[FrogReaver]

The new ENWorld motto.

I laid out a strong case. Sarcasm without any comment on it is rude.

 

[FrogReaver]

that is 2016, not sure the DVD market is anywhere near that size any more

Numbers were similar for 2020, the image was just badly sized for here. Box office was a bit higher percentage.

And it’s not just dvd’s. It’s dvd and on demand video.

 

[LuisCarlos17f]

I hope it to be the begining of a new cinematographic franchise. It is not a bad movie, but only eclipsed by the superhit of the year. It is not their fault.

* Can't be Paramount productions be watchted in youtube? Something like the online version of Blockbusters.

 

[Stalker0]

I went out looking for some revenue percentages. All The info I have found is saying box office only accounts for about 50% of 'direct' film revenues. Some movies generate more in revenue from merchandising than they do from the movies themselves. In short, a film can be expected to make about what it makes from the box office in TV and Video/DVD sales. Tack on merchandising and the revenue forecast isn't nearly as bleak as @Zardnaar is making it out to be.

With respect, when movies are assigned hit or flop status, it’s not based on tv and video sales.

If this wasn’t our beloved brand, no one would question the box office numbers so closely or the picture they paint.

People are huffing a bit of copium here, now even if the movie isn’t a commercial success doesn’t mean the franchise is dead, as there are other factors (like what you quoted) that could factor into executive decisions.

But if we are answering the simple question: was the dnd movie a hit or a flop…the answer is all about box office, not merchandizing or projected dvd sales or brand recognition or xyz. It’s about pure cold unforgiving box office numbers, how much it made vs how much it costs to make. Nothing more nothing less

 

[FrogReaver]

With respect, when movies are assigned hit or flop status, it’s not based on tv and video sales.

If this wasn’t our beloved brand, no one would question the box office numbers so closely or the picture they paint.

People are huffing a bit of copium here, now even if the movie isn’t a commercial success doesn’t mean the franchise is dead, as there are other factors (like what you quoted) that could factor into executive decisions.

But if we are answering the simple question: was the dnd movie a hit or a flop…the answer is all about box office, not merchandizing or projected dvd sales or brand recognition or xyz. It’s about pure cold unforgiving box office numbers, how much it made vs how much it costs to make. Nothing more nothing less

The point I was responding to was whether it would lose money.

 

[CommodoreKong]

I went out looking for some revenue percentages. All The info I have found is saying box office only accounts for about 50% of 'direct' film revenues. Some movies generate more in revenue from merchandising than they do from the movies themselves. In short, a film can be expected to make about what it makes from the box office in TV and Video/DVD sales. Tack on merchandising and the revenue forecast isn't nearly as bleak as @Zardnaar is making it out to be.

Here's some recent estimates from movie trade magazine Deadline on how much The Batman and Thor Love and Thunder Made

Given we know the budget is around $150 million dollars the marketing spend is probably at least $100 million worldwide, Honor Among Thieves will probably eventually at least break even, though some of it will certainly be Paramount paying itself with Paramount Plus buying the streaming rights.
Given the weak box office performance so far I doubt it will do much more than break even or maybe eventually make a small profit.

Of course if Hasbro does sell a ton of DND merchandise this year and the game sees a huge boost in player counts they might be willing to put more funding into a sequel.

 

[OB1]

With respect, when movies are assigned hit or flop status, it’s not based on tv and video sales.

In the age of streaming, flop status is no longer completely about the box office (nor TV and Video sales). Importantly, the word 'flop' also isn't being thrown around in the trades for this film because it's exceeding industry expectations from early March. The brand is such that analyists believed it would be difficult for it to make more than $120M worldwide.

So why did Paramount and Hasbro spend so much to produce the film? Because Paramount+ needs enough franchises on it's platform to keep people subscribing, and they are hoping D&D is a piece of that puzzle. It's the same reason Amazon spent a billion dollars on ROP.

They launch the movie now, it comes to P+ in a few months, and then they also promote the TV series that's coming. Additionally, millions of P+ subscribers see a high quality, well reviewed film who didn't see the film in theatres but discover they enjoy it, and so check out the series, and then when the 2nd film is launched, are more likely to go see it in theatres.

This first release is probably seen largely as a loss leader for Paramount for P+ and a loss leader for Hasbro to build up the brand ahead of the 50 year anniversary.

Now, had the film grossed under $100M worldwide, had terrible reviews (from audience and critics), was not liked by fans of the brand (like us) and was also a terrible movie? That would be a flop. For now, it's squarely in wait and see mode, and will be there for a while.

 

[Mistwell]

Pity it's budget is 150 million though.

These numbers are not good.

OK those numbers are quite good and I am finally now at the "Zard has no clue on this topic" stage.

Seriously, you should have hedged your bets much better than what you just did. That was about as bad a look as you could have gone for.

 

[Mistwell]

Most income of a movie apparently is made in first three weeks.

In the pre-pandemic era that was true. In the post-pandemic era that is false. But we've been through that discussion already, which ended with you saying you don't have enough data for the new formula the industry uses.

Outside that launch window the numbers drop dramatically. Have a look at any movie released 4 weeks ago basically a week before John Wick.

They need to hot somewhere north of 300 million. To break even. Sure there's other numbers but the box office still most important number.

This is also false. Known to be false. Again, that's the pre-pandemic formula before streaming and international sales took off. Again, you knew this.

On those numbers it's a flop its gonna take 3 weeks to get to its budget and it needs double that at least due to it's 151 million budget.

Sure there's other numbers to plug in but it will be reported as a flop on those numbers. Even the perception of a flop is bad enough for the D&D brand they're pushing combined with the lack of a hit game as well.

It's being reported as a hit. You dismissed those reports, and yet they were from industry professionals. We know perception already and you're substituting your own.