Paramount absolutely has not recovered their investment when you factor in the cut that theaters take, and the likely $100 million dollar or more marketing budget a big budget release like this has. They are likely tens of millions of dollars in the red still and wont come close to breaking even in the theatrical run as the movie continues to lose screens over the next few weeks.
The movie may eventually crawl it's way to breaking even or even a small profit for Paramount and Hasbro based on digital video sales, DVD/Blu Ray sales, the money Paramount pays to itself for licensing the film to Paramount Plus and the TV rights. The thing is big budget films like this aren't made to eventually crawl to break even or maybe a tiny profit, they're made so studios and investors get a big return on the money they invest into the film.
I'm also not sure why you think cheap D&D toys for kids would be a good idea. In the US anyway physical toy stores don't really exist anymore, Walmart and Target have a couple of isles dedicated for toys but there's no guarantee they would carry D&D toys for kids. I doubt they have any interest in most toys unless it's a big brand they know is going to sell. Even if they did stock D&D toys it would still be a massive risk for Hasbro since if they didn't sell well Walmart and Target might demand they return them, or they clearance them out and refuse to buy anymore, leaving Hasbro with a bunch of unsold stock sitting in a warehouse.
Plus, it's not like kids toys are much of a thing anymore. Kids these days play Roblox, Minecraft and Fortnite. The number of kids who care about colored hunks of plastic just keeps going down. A lot of toys these days are actually made for adults (which is something we're seeing with Hasbro making adult focused D&D figurines/toys, like the ones announced during the last D&D Direct).
Videogames are a high risk, high reward business. A game like that could do very well, but could also fall flat on it's face and lose a bunch of money for Hasbro. If you make a Pokemon style game with D&D monsters there's a big risk that kids just wouldn't care about it because Pokemon already exists and the current D&D audience wouldn't care about it because it's not a traditional D&D videogame.